SEEING off the proposed European Super League is now being viewed by many as a Pyrrhic victory as sweeping new changes to the Champions League come in from 2024.
The breakaway league would have seen what amounted to a closed shop introduced to continental competition, only for fan backlash to force all but three clubs to pull out – at least publicly.
But while the status of that project is tied up in the legal system – and a Spanish court insists the withdrawal of all but Juventus, Real Madrid and Barcelona is not actually legally binding – the current peak of European football is to change from 2024 onward.
Those plans were agreed upon with the European Club Association shortly before the attempted Super League coup, and this week the same body was presented with the proposals for how the changes will be implemented.
With Scotland set to secure an automatic place in the group stage for at least the next two seasons, minds will naturally turn to how the plans will affect Celtic.
We’ve broken down the proposals to explain the positives and negatives for Ange Postecoglou and his squad.
What changes are being made to the Champions League?
The headline change is that the group stage as we know it is being dropped, with a further four teams competing in the first round proper of the competition.
Rather than teams being divided into groups of four, all 36 will compete in one league table in the so-called ‘Swiss system’.
The new setup, based on chess system first used in Zurich (hence the name) will see each team play a minimum of 10 matches rather than the current six.
The eight teams with the best record will advance automatically to the last 16, while the 16 teams below that go into a play-off round to determine who makes up the rest of the last 16 draw.
If it all sounds pretty complicated, like the Nations League it’s not quite as baffling as it looks on paper.
The club coefficient will be used to rank teams from 1-36. Each team will get five home games and five away games based on that. Though not every team will play each other, the league table will be used to determine who goes through.
So what are the advantages for Celtic?
The first and most obvious one is money. Qualification would guarantee an extra four matches in the competition, including two home games at Parkhead.
That’ll obviously bring a boost in terms of ticket sales, and UEFA is banking on the TV rights being worth more since broadcasters will be showing more games – 180 as opposed to 96.
The governing body is projecting revenues of £3.8bn from 2024-2027 as opposed to the current £2.7bn per season.
They’d also only need to finish 26th in the table to earn a play-off spot and at least the chance of going to the last 16, rather than in the old system where you face being drawn with two giants and are left scrapping over third in a group where you're essentially cannon fodder.
What about the extra four places, could Celtic get one of those?
This is where things get controversial.
One of the places will go to the league ranked fifth by UEFA coefficient. That’s currently France, so the third-placed team in Ligue 1 would go straight into the league phase, but Portugal may well have overtaken them by 2024.
Another place will go to an extra team from the ‘Champions Path’ in qualifying. That could be a boost for Celtic if the Scottish coefficient declines in the intervening years and an automatic group stage place is lost.
But it’s when it comes to the other two places that people are comparing this to the Super League.
They’ll be given to the non-qualified teams with the best coefficient record over the previous five seasons – essentially a safety net for Europe’s giants.
Let’s say Juventus and Manchester United missed out on Champions League qualification via their leagues this season: under the new plans they’d get a place in the competition thanks to being ranked eighth and ninth in the coefficient respectively.
Of course, if Celtic perform well in the coming seasons they could put themselves into contention but the current ranking of 48th isn’t likely to be enough for a place.
If we look at this season, the likes of Valencia, Lazio, and Lyon are all outside the Champions League places and ranked higher in the coefficient.
What are the negatives?
Well, there’s the idea of two teams being given a place without qualifying which seems fundamentally unfair.
Then there’s the question of how entertaining a spectacle this will be, given there will be 180 matches to, in effect, eliminate 12 teams.
That means that a team winning its first four games is basically guaranteed to go through and can field a weakened team for the final two matches.
Given the financial gap in European football, we can expect the so-called Super Clubs to be in that position fairly regularly. Sure, Bayern Munich vs Manchester City sounds great but not when it’s the reserves.
There’s also the potential for ‘convenient’ results which suit both sides.
In the previous group format, head-to-head and goal difference would come into the equation making it unlikely that two teams can settle on a mutually beneficial result.
Under the new system though not every side will play each other, so there could well be a situation where two sides know a point apiece will get them both into a play-off.
Do Celtic get a say in these changes?
Celtic are a member of the ECA, which has recommended the allocation plan for the four extra slots to UEFA. It’s not known how the club voted individually but, in theory, this proposal has the backing of the clubs.
It will now pass to UEFA for final approval, with talks expected in April.
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