There's only ONE choice for Celtic's Player of the Year

One man up for Player of the Year is Cameron Carter-Vickers. The centre-back played his last game of the season in the Scottish Cup semi-final and steered his team into the showpiece fixture after marshalling a backline that defended a first-half lead. He was rightfully awarded the Player of the Match.

Celtic, with the league title one win away and a chance to clinch a treble against lower league opposition, have taken the pragmatic decision to let the former Tottenham Hotspur defender have the long-standing knee surgery needed to clear up a problem that had hitherto been managed.

Appearing in 40 of Celtic’s 47 matches this season, there would be little dispute to the assertion he is the club’s first choice centre back.

Overlooked by fans and the media for individual honours last season, he was selected by his peers, surely the greatest accolade, as PFA Player of the Year in 2021/22.

Carter-Vickers has hardly been worse this season, so how does his data compare to last?

Centre-Back comparison

The following framework was used to compare centre-backs going back to 2014/15 when I started to collect data.

It measures defensive actions only (i.e. not passing or shooting etc).

Plotted are defensive action success rate and possession won from defensive actions.

Here are all the centre-backs from 2014/15 with this season’s crop highlighted in green:

This catches the last full season of Virgil van Dijk. Remember that we are comparing a young and relatively raw Van Dijk against peak Christopher Jullien. Also, Filip Benkovic is a sad tale of what if.

By assessing defensive actions, Carter-Vickers is now, over two seasons, the most effective centre-back since the much-vaunted Dutchman and the excellent version of Jullien we saw in 2019/20 partnered with Kristopher Ajer. 

Carl Starfelt has improved markedly over last season but would be solidly in the 'middle-class' section of historical defenders. The decision to pass on Moritz Jenz also looks the correct one.

Purely based on defensive actions, Carter-Vickers has posted two of the most effective seasons for centre-backs in the last eight seasons. 

Economy

His performances have been consistent even though he has simply had less active defending to do. Last season he averaged 11.5 defensive actions per 90 minutes. This season that is down to 9.6.

For context, Carter-Vickers is engaged in the least defensive actions of any member of the Celtic back four with partner Starfelt averaging 12. It could be argued there are two main reasons.

READ MORE: Three Celtic players who can explode under Ange Postecoglou next term

Firstly, opponents are targeting the left-hand side of Celtic’s defence. Nearly all domestic foes launch long diagonals onto the relatively diminutive Greg Taylor, who is handy in the air (wins 52 per cent of aerial duels). Also, given Starfelt’s quite high personal error rate, teams feel this is the weakest side of Celtic’s structure.

Consequently, there is simply less activity in Carter-Vickers' section of the pitch. The corollary to that is teams avoid attacking Carter-Vickers as they know that he is such an accomplished defender.

Secondly, it is partly to do with the nature of Carter-Vickers' defending. Unlike Starfelt, who is a very aggressive front-foot defender and proactively looking to engage the ball and the opponent, Carter-Vickers relies upon excellent reading of the game and positioning to avoid defensive action where possible.

The American is rarely pulled out of position and barely engages in last-ditch actions. I will admit I prefer this more preventative style of defending but it makes for an interesting dynamic as a partnership.

Distribution

Carter-Vickers completed, on average, 75 passes per game last season and the same this.

Of those last season, 13.11 were pack passes that took opponents out the game but this season that has dropped to 11.28.

A feature of the last campaign was the ball from right centre-back to the inside right channel, mainly to Tom Rogic. It was the most completed pack pass of the season and a real feature of Celtic’s build-up.

The Australian has obviously moved on and Celtic have not had a consistent presence as the right-sided number eight. Reo Hatate tends to wander around more, while Matt O’Riley is often pushed further up as a number 10.

But the more impactful reason for the decline in pack passes is that as SPFL teams try and counter Ange-ball they are simply dropping deeper and becoming more compact. There is less latitude to play packing passes – as a team Celtic play 87 pack passes per 90 minutes compared to 88 last season. 

To compensate for the more man-orientated marking of Celtic’s midfielders and the more compact defensive structures the team face, Carter-Vickers has engaged more ball carries.

Last season he ran with the ball over 10 yards in the opponent's half 1.99 times per 90 minutes and this term, that has risen to 3.26.

Having the centre-backs run at the opposition stresses the man marking as they must decide who will engage the runner.

It is a small tweak to Ange-ball and one Carter-Vickers has the flexibility to undertake.

Cool as a Fridge

As befits a man with the dimensions of a large refrigerator, Carter-Vickers exudes a coolness about his defending.

His personal error rate is the lowest of any centre-back I’ve recorded since 2014/15. A young Van Dijk would sometimes get caught out when his concentration dipped.

Not so the American who seems to have superpowers of concentration. His error rate has fallen from an already 0.22 per 90 minutes. to 0.08. Most of those probably occurred in a single game against Rangers where he had an uncharacteristically shaky 90 minutes. 

No defender loses possession of the ball less in their own defensive third than him. Averaging 0.31 per 90 minutes – the average for the whole of the defence is 0.86.

READ MORE: Why Celtic fans have been let down by Scottish football once again

He is only bypassed by pack passes 1.26 times per game, Starfelt is even lower at 1.06. The nature of Celtic’s defensive structure is that the pair are often left one v one at the back if their opponents are playing two forward.

This risk is mitigated by coverage of the inverted full-backs and Callum McGregor, but it is imperative Celtic have good one on one defenders in these roles given the nature of their risks in transition.

Carter-Vickers is perfect for this as he is quick to recover and has the upper body strength to ease opponents away from goal and from danger without the need to go to ground.

Summary

What is remarkable about Carter-Vickers is the sheer consistency of his performances. The very rare wobbly moment stands out because of this.

This is because he has the rare gift of simplifying the game through good positioning and body shape in his defending. He is also blessed with clarity of thinking as regards his decision-making.

His upper body strength and pace allows him to ease opponents off the ball and away from danger without the need for crashing aerials or thundering challenges.

He is one of those players who is a candidate for being the best player on the pitch every time he steps onto it.