Why Celtic's end-of-season dip in form is not unusual

As he said on the Celtic Park turf at the end of the 2021-22 season, after his team signed off with a 6-0 dismantling of Motherwell: "Champions. That’s what we are."

The tone this week was more defensive than congratulatory, but the message was clear. These guys have proven they are the best team in the league, they have retained the League Cup and are in the final of the Scottish Cup next month.

The matches since defeating Hearts with ease at Tynecastle are for getting minutes into players’ legs who may be needed for the Scottish Cup final.

Has there been a consistent 90-minute high-quality performance in April and May? That 27-minute demolition of Kilmarnock was spectacular. Hard-fought single-goal victories in two derbies were welcome and Hibs themselves were ultimately blown away by an attacking wave. 

But are Celtic simply gliding home on the wave of consistently meritorious performances earlier in the season?

Is a slight drop in intensity not to be expected once line-up changes occur and titles are won? Hasn’t that always been the case?

A History of Winning

If we consider the modern era, there are perhaps parallels with Martin O’Neill’s first campaign in 2000-01.

His treble winners tied up the league on April 7 against St Mirren. A further three victories followed but the league season ended on a dampener with defeats at home to Dundee (0-2) and away at Kilmarnock (0-1). Those losses represented only the second and third reverses in the campaign.

However, the team roused themselves to best Hibernian 3-0 in the Scottish Cup final.

In 2001-02 the league was again tied up on April 7. The opposition continued to be swatted away apart from a draw at home to Rangers in the league and a heart-breaking 2-3 reverse against the same opponent in the Scottish Cup final.

The 2003-04 season saw a dominant Celtic clinch the title against Kilmarnock with six matches to spare. In a campaign of 105 goals and 98 points, Celtic dropped points in four of those last six matches, with two defeats and two draws, and won the other two by only one goal.

Again, as in 2001, the team recovered to win the Scottish Cup final comfortably (in the end) against Dunfermline Athletic.

Gordon Strachan’s reign started with a similarly dominant league campaign. The title was secured as early as April 1 when John Hartson drove home a long-range daisy-cutter against Hearts.

The team would go on to lose one and draw three of their last six games after tying up the title, including a heavy 3-0 defeat at Tynecastle.

The 2006-07 season was one where Strachan’s side seemed determined to create drama. The title clincher was delayed and delayed as two defeats and a draw, including losing at Falkirk, meant fans had to wait for Shunsuke Nakamura’s crowning free-kick on 22nd April at Kilmarnock.

Job done. The side then lost three of their last four matches.

The recovery to win the Scottish Cup was hardly sparkling as a famous Jean-Joel Doumbe goal secured a stuffy success against Dunfermline Athletic.

The epochal 2011-12 season was distorted by Rangers entering administration. Neil Lennon’s Celtic clinched the title relatively early, on our favourite April 7 date, with a 6-0 thumping of Kilmarnock. 

After that, they only lost one more league game and won four but did exit the Scottish Cup against Hearts in the semi-final.

Lennon’s 2012-13 champions lost one and drew one of their last four matches after wrapping up the title versus Inverness Caledonian Thistle (4-1 on April 21). Another Scottish Cup triumph followed as Gary Hooper led Celtic to a 3-0 victory against Hibernian.

In 2013-14, the league title secured on March 26 and was followed by an unbeaten procession to the end of the season, but it did see three draws against Ross County, Motherwell and St Johnstone and 10 goals conceded in seven matches.

Ronny Deila’s second title in 2015-16 was only won with two matches left, and the team immediately lost away at St Johnstone. 

Brendan Rodgers' Invincibles in 2016-17 were, of course, focused on an unbeaten domestic season and therefore, there were goals and targets to hit beyond the title-winning date of April 2. There were, however, turgid draws at home to Partick Thistle and away to Ross County but his team finished off their unbeaten campaign in spectacular fashion thanks to Tom Rogic at Hampden.

Rodgers' second treble saw the league end on April 29 with a 5-0 Glasgow Derby demolition. The campaign culminated with a whimper, however, with a home draw versus Kilmarnock and a loss to Aberdeen. The Scottish Cup was secured thanks to early goals at Hampden Park against Motherwell.

In 2018-19 Celtic somewhat limped over the line in the league, and while a 3-0 win at Aberdeen sealed it, a 2-0 defeat in the last Glasgow Derby followed as one of two dead rubbers.

History Repeating

What we see above is a repeating pattern of behaviour across all Celtic’s 21st Century managers and title-winning sides.

Tying up the title early is welcome but inevitably, there is a slight drop-off in intensity and focus for those remaining league matches.

It has been common for Celtic to lose or draw matches post after winning the league  

READ MORE: Celtic winger Sead Haksabanovic's mixed Hoops career so far

The manager often rotates the squad. Continuity is disrupted. Players who may have appeared, even if less than fully fit, are now rested.

But what is also consistent is that when there is a Scottish Cup final at the end of the series of league dead rubbers, so far this century, Celtic have usually got over the line.

Postecoglou will continue to drive the team and enforce standards. As he said recently, the standards are set by the club not him. He never makes it about himself. If players are not meeting those standards, it is themselves, the club and ultimately, the support they are letting down.

However, they are human. You will not press with the same intensity as if your life depended on it for a tie in a competition you have already won.

Celtic play a very intense form of football. It is also a sport of small margins. Historically, their current form is not unusual. 

The test will come at Hampden in June and if there is success and another treble, lame draws at home to St Mirren will be long forgotten.