Aside from the striking position, which is covered elsewhere in another piece, the only other spot up for Cup final grabs at Celtic appears to be the partner for Carl Starfelt.
In recent weeks, as the title was won, and Ange Postecoglou shuffled the squad pack, Yuki Kobayashi and Tomoki Iwata have alternated as the Swede’s central-defensive partner.
It is an important decision as the shape of the side is altered depending on who starts.
The naturally left-footed Kobayashi allows Starfelt to play on his more natural side. He is also the designated centre-back.
Meanwhile, when Iwata has played in the back four, Starfelt has resumed his more “normal” left-sided defensive position as he would if Cameron Carter-Vickers was available.
Both players were January acquisitions and, as such, are being relatively gently introduced into the first team having come off a full Japanese season up to the end of November 2022.
The manager has seemed keen to get J-League Player of the Year Iwata, 26, assimilated. He has made 17 appearances, racking up 688 minutes. Most often he has appeared as a central midfield foil for Callum McGregor.
Kobayashi, 22, has been used more sparingly, with just seven appearances - albeit six of them have been full 90 minutes. He has 585 minutes so far. He is the younger player, and the manager is less inclined to rotate the back line than the midfield position, in general.
Neither then, qualifies for the definitive 900 minutes assessment.
But it is the last game of the season, and this is a key decision, so, with small sample warnings in place, does the data help us guide as to what the manager’s decision may be?
Statsbomb Contrast
Bear in mind, this covers SPFL data only.
Also, the contrast template is for a centre-back. Iwata has predominantly played as a central midfielder.
What stands out immediately is they both have very accurate passing metrics at 91 per cent completion and within the 95th percentile. We’ll dig into how penetrating their passing is below, but that ability to maintain possession and recycle accurately is one key component of Postecoglou’s system.
The pressures stats are heavily influenced by position with the midfielder (Iwata) applying more than the centre-back Kobayashi. Kobayashi’s pressure stats are very similar to Carter-Vickers and slightly lower than Starfelt’s.
The younger player's fouls conceded are like Starfelts and generally quite low for a defender. Iwata is notable for the low rate of fouls conceded. He has not acquired a yellow card yet. Given his five-foot-ten-inch frame that, to use the vernacular, marks him as a “wee tank”, he relies on anticipation and positioning over blood and snotter tackling.
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Indeed, amongst outfield players other than the ghost-like Kyogo Furuhashi, Iwata has the least number of defensive actions per 90 minutes (7.68) apart from… Callum McGregor (7.2). Postecoglou has a specific mould in mind for his “defensive” midfielders.
In contrast, Kobayashi is engaged in 17.54 defensive actions which is the second highest on the squad after Alexandro Bernabei.
I would say that Kobayashi’s numbers are reflective of two things: 1. Small sample, therefore, his “trend” hasn’t settled yet and 2. Being targeted as the “new Bhoy”. Remember teams tend to attack Celtic’s left side for many reasons. Having a young centre-back in there exacerbates this trend.
Kobayashi clearly has the aerial edge on Iwata but again the interesting trend is how little Iwata engages in any duels. I like this in a defensive player if it means he Is proactively covering the danger areas and avoiding conflict due to excellent positioning and anticipation.
However, let’s be realistic, with all due respect to Inverness Caledonian Thistle, they will be doing a lot of defending. Also, they do not pose the aerial threat many SPFL top-flight teams do. Their attack is focussed around the relatively diminutive Bill McKay, a clever goalscoring forward.
Inverness do attempt A LOT of long balls (60 per game), but this is due to their counter-attacking style and these tend to be channel balls rather than launching on top of the centre-backs.
Therefore, having aerial strength in the back line may be less important than mobility and anticipation.
Ball Progression
Celtic will have huge swathes of possession on Saturday. Even more so considering that as mentioned Inverness are a counter-attacking team.
The top six in the Championship were only separated by eight points. As we saw last night as Partick Thistle racked up a two-goal start on Ross County, there is not a huge gap to the bottom of the Premiership.
Against the bottom six, Celtic averaged 73 per cent possession.
Therefore, ball progression will be key as invariably Inverness will sit in and try and be compact. The centre-backs will have a lot of the ball and will need to recycle it quickly and accurately.
Both Japanese players average over 80 completed passes per 90 minutes and therefore are used to having a lot of the ball.
It is Kobayashi who averages 20.31 pack passes per game as opposed to 13.55 from Iwata. That is six more than anyone else in the squad! Another low sample warning but it does illustrate the utility Postecoglou sees in Kobayashi.
Whilst he has struggled in aerial duels as we saw at Ibrox, and can put risk into his passing, he does break that initial line of defence well.
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Iwata’s early numbers in this regard are also higher than any other midfielder it should be noted.
Both have played primarily in the SPFL and therefore we should be aware there is no dampening effect of Champions League-level opponents.
Kobayashi also averages more ball carries. He is on four per game as opposed to 1.66 by Iwata. Stylistically, Iwata seems like a player who likes to play two-touch and move the ball quickly. Kobayashi, with a longer stride, seems happy to come out from the back with the ball at his feet.
Conclusion
The data suggests that Kobayashi has the more penetrative pack passing ability, whilst his natural left-sided position would balance well given Starfelt would move to his more natural side.
However, if we read the manager and his usage of the players, Iwata is someone he seems keen to get integrated into the squad as soon as possible. At 26, the more experienced player and J-League stand-out offers flexibility in the back line as someone familiar with that position but also happy stepping up into midfield to generate overloads and keep the ball moving quickly.
I don’t believe having the taller Kobayashi in the back line is mission critical given Inverness’s attacking profile and set-up.
Whilst the younger player would fit this match-up well and if you were using just data, you might pick Kobayashi, I think the manager will go with experience and mobility for this game and that the line-up will be as per the final Aberdeen game. It will be Iwata for the final.
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