A new Celtic manager will reinvigorate Matt O'Riley

There is more to come from Matt O’Riley. 

The Denmark midfielder, signed from MK Dons in January 2022, has been an ever-present in the first team, making 72 appearances in all competitions. Since his arrival, he has played as the most advanced midfielder in a 4-3-3 formation, though this might be set to change following the departure of manager Ange Postecoglou to Tottenham Hotspur.

Esteemed transfer journalist Fabrizio Romano reported this week that O’Riley had interest from clubs down south and abroad.

Despite this attention from Premier League and Bundesliga sides, O’Riley should be considered a key cog in the ever-evolving Celtic midfield, and the club should be doing everything in their power to keep him, regardless of who is in charge next season.

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O’Riley started his career at NPL Youth in Teddington, Middlesex, before being scouted by Fulham in 2009. He spent over a decade at the London club, making 11 appearances in all competitions, before departing the club in 2020 to pursue first-team opportunities elsewhere.

Following a period without a club, O’Riley was signed by MK Dons, where he made his breakthrough in English football. He made just over 50 appearances for the EFL club, scoring 10 times, as he attracted attention following impressive performances in the third tier of England.

Following the failed pursuit of Riley McGree from Charlotte FC, Celtic turned their attention to O’Riley, who was signed for £1.5 million plus add-ons.

Analysing the midfielder’s two seasons at the club makes for interesting reading when using player radars on StatsBomb. Despite registering four goals and 14 assists from midfield last season, his metrics suggest a regression in his overall game.

In terms of improvements, O’Riley’s passing percentage has improved, jumping from 77 to 79 per cent from his first season to last season, indicating a growing maturity to his game. He also won more fouls last season compared to the one before, although this was only a small rise from 0.55 to 0.64 in respective seasons.

Before discussing the regressions in his overall statistics, it must be noted that O’Riley only played half a season for Celtic in his first contributions to the club, meaning that the numbers may be skewed due to being side-by-side to a full season for the 2022/23 campaign.

It must be mentioned also that O’Riley had to play deeper in the no. 6 role of the midfield, following an injury to captain Callum McGregor in the first half of the last campaign. This will mean that certain metrics will be higher or lower because of the change in position, because of a more defensive approach from the player due to his position.

When looking at the comparisons between the two seasons of O’Riley, there are several negatively affected metrics in his numbers for last term compared to the year before.

Perhaps the most notable drop is in pressures, which lowered quite significantly from 20.71 to 16.93, indicating that he averaged around four fewer initialised pressures per 90 minutes. This meant that his percentile for midfielders dropped from 79 to 47 over the course of two seasons, in what was a notable fall in statistics for this metric.

Pressure regains also felt a decrease in quantity because of this, with O’Riley averaging 2.89 last season compared to 4.02 the season before. For his first campaign, he was in the 82nd percentile for this metric, but last season saw his placing drop dramatically to 37th, in what was a notable downturn in winning the ball back after initialising a pressing action.

O’Riley’s deep progressions took a hit last season too, according to StatsBomb. In his debut season, he averaged 6.39 per game but saw his number drop to 5.10 in his second year at the club, his successful dribbles following the same trend from 1.28 to 0.74 in respective campaigns too.

Perhaps the statistical drop most detrimental to the team is in the form of turnovers for O’Riley, as he has seen his amount per game rise from 2.10 to 2.92 over the course of his time at the club. In giving away the ball more, he puts his team under further defensive pressure, perhaps indicating that playing further forward is the better fit for his attributes.

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These statistical drops in O’Riley’s game are natural, especially for a young player still getting used to the demands of first-team football. Despite these decreases in his metrics, the midfielder still managed to win Celtic’s Young Player of the Year and was also nominated in the same category for the PFA Awards.

Perhaps O’Riley’s undoubted talents could translate better under the guidance of a new manager at Celtic, one who will get more out of him in a new system.

Despite the high price tag the midfielder would attract from potential suitors both down south and abroad, O’Riley’s best course of action would be to stay at Celtic and continue developing, regardless of the manager in place.

Under the right leader and personnel, he could easily be one of Celtic’s most important players this coming season, both domestically and in European competition. It is up to the board and the player himself to make sure his potential is effectively realised in the coming years.

This piece is an extract from the latest Celtic Digest newsletter, which is emailed out every weekday evening with a round-up of the day's top stories and exclusive analysis from The Celtic Way team.

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