Why Brendan Rodgers de-risks structural Celtic weakness

On the latest Huddle Breakdown I made the case for the return of Rodgers. 

However, this is far from a black-and-white issue and my recommendation is far from unequivocal.

Let me try and take stock of where we are and why I came to that conclusion.

Context and Perspective

Arguably there has never been a more attractive moment to take on the Celtic job.

Having just won a world record eighth treble might suggest the only way is down but the foundations behind that success are solid.

The Scottish champions are a relatively cash-rich club with a consistent run of solid fiscal performance and who are not on a UEFA financial watch list.

The run of sporting success this century has been without precedent. There is a winning culture around the organisation.

Finally, the playing squad is relatively young and there are no contract dramas looming. What many would recognise as the most attractive playing assets are on long term contracts e.g. Cameron Carter-Vickers (2026), Alistair Johnston (2028), Reo Hatate (2026), Callum McGregor (2026), Matt O’Riley (2026), Jota (2027), Kyogo Furuhashi (2025) and Liel Abada (2026).

Improvements in quality will be needed but should any key player leave, a hefty transfer kitty should accrue.

READ MORE: Brendan Rodgers left Celtic like a fugitive - but he's still my pick

Yet, the list of candidates, according to the bookies at least, is a little underwhelming.

This is probably a sobering moment for Scottish football in general as it is clear the premium job in the country does not attract the highest quality candidates.

Runners and Riders

How to characterise the market for potential successors to the grizzly Aussie?

The Redemption Arc

Most managers’ jobs end in failure. There are a few exceptions at the elite end of the scale – Alex Ferguson and Pep Guardiola, but for most, this holds true.

Therefore, there are always redemption candidates. Those looking to rebuild after a significant setback like Rodgers (Leicester City), Graham Potter (Chelsea) and Jesse Marsch (Leeds United). Ange Postecoglou and Rodgers before him have shown that managing Scotland’s premier side CAN be seen as a gateway to the English Premier League riches.

Of those mentioned, Potter appears set on staying in England and after so much went wrong for Marsch at Leeds United, he would be considered a big risk. Daniel Farke did a good job at Norwich City before losing a record 15 consecutive matches and left Borussia Monchengladbach after one average season. Not an outstanding profile. 

That leaves Rodgers as the potential great redeemer.

Buy On The Up

What is lacking in the list are managers whose stock is rising and who see the Celtic job as the next step up in a burgeoning career.

David Moyes is hardly a young upstart, and his recent European success at West Ham United will likely result in him continuing to battle the odds in the Premier League.

Kjetil Knudsen has many advocates within the support, and at 54 years old is also hardly a young pup. He has crafted a highly entertaining and successful Bodo/Glimt side from the edges of the Arctic Circle. Given he has been winning with the Norwegians from a town the size of Falkirk for some time now, one wonders why he is still there, given his age? Would he have the size of ambition, the drive and the personality to cope with a club the size of Celtic?

Kieran McKenna has done a wonderful job to pull Ipswich Town out of League One to the English Championship, but again, there isn’t a track record there of topflight or European potential.

Scott Brown is on the list for presumably 'Celtic-minded' reasons and is doing a solid enough job at troubled Fleetwood Town without any suggestion his next step should be such a leap.

Kevin Muscat has not been mentioned in despatches and is low in the bookies betting odds. This is strange to me as not only is he affiliated with the City Football Group with whom Celtic seem to have close ties, he has twice taken over Postecoglou squads (at Melbourne Victory and Yokohama F Marinos) and turned them into winning sides. However, his past as a former Rangers player is probably counting against him.

The Hipsters Choice

Francesco Farioli (Image: Getty)

For a data analyst, this is the most fascinating category.

Francesco Farioli, the ex-goalkeeping coach (what would he make of Joe Hart?), is hailed as a disciple of Roberto De Zerbi, arguably the hottest managerial talent in the Premier League. He has managed in Turkey and is currently a free agent.

Adoni Iraolo achieved unheard-of highs with lowly Rayo Vallecano, taking the Madrid minnows (think Partick Thistle in Glasgow) up from the Segundo Division to mid-table finishes in La Liga consecutively, as well as a Cup semi-final. He also left at the end of the season by choice.

Both are known for playing styles quite like Postecoglou. Characterised by high pressing out of possession and fast, attacking play with the ball.

Farioli has, apparently, been interviewed, so may still be in play. He’d be a fascinating appointment but not without significant risk again, given his tender age (34) and lack of big club experience. However, navigating Turkish football is not for the faint-hearted.

Work Experience

The final category is what I call providing work experience to (usually) members of the City Football Group.

Here we find Enzo Maresca and possibly Des Buckingham.  Maresca is one of many of Guardiola’s assistants at Manchester City. Buckingham is currently coaching one of the Indian premier league sides – Mumbai City.

The idea Celtic is an appropriate stage to start a new career without any prior experience of running football teams seem remarkable to me. Postecoglou had over 600 matches of evidence behind him upon which to make an informed decision. To pivot to an absolute managerial novice seems incredible in terms of the lack of joined-up thinking.

Not to say Maresca will not, in time, be another Mikael Arteta. But is Celtic the right platform to have that experiment?

Risk Management

I firmly believe Celtic’s benchmark for performance on the field, financial well-being off the field and in the operations of the player trading model should be European, not Scottish.

Celtic are light years behind targets such as Benfica, RB Salzburg, Ajax, Sporting, Braga and Basel.

Heck, we’re a long way from Midtjylland and Club Brugge

Having a head of scouting and recruitment from the City Football group (albeit the appointment of Mark Lawwell which will always attract accusations of nepotism) and the development of fitness and conditioning infrastructure at Lennoxtown, plus the improvements in recruitment under Postecoglou are all promising signs.

The lack of a director of football and a clear, consistent footballing strategy across the operations means that the current management recruitment seems to fall between two stools. 

Firstly, the City Football Group digital contact database.

Secondly, major shareholder Dermot Desmond and his UK and Ireland-centric analogue Rolodex.

My point is that we are still a way to go from having a well-designed operating model of football operations whereby the manager is but one (the most important) cog, not the one cranking the whole operational wheel (as Postecoglou seemed to do). 

Therefore, if we are still wedded, in the short term at least until the football operations further modernise, to a 'manager as God' model then that discounts a rookie or those unproven at handling high-pressure jobs. 

Furthermore, the prize at stake next season is guaranteed entry to the Champions League group stages once again. This is game-changing revenue for Celtic and would buy time for the club to further develop off the park as well as on, and recruit the necessary talent so that in the future, a Maresca-type appointment would be possible because the organisation infrastructure would be strong enough to withstand any shocks.

For now that does not appear to be the case. Of all the candidates listed in the bookies' list, Rodgers seems the one to me to de-risk the current organisation's shortcomings and navigate the way to the league title next season. 

READ MORE: Why Celtic should forgive Brendan Rodgers - Ryan McGinlay

It is a reluctant choice on my part as I am never convinced by going back and there is tremendous baggage associated with Rodgers’ leaving the first time. 

As I am a data proponent, I’ll leave you with this.

This is the six-match rolling average expected goals differential across Rodgers’ last tenure. 

Remember, this was trending down over Postecoglou’s two years. BUT, Postecoglou’s was trending from a remarkable 2 xG difference per game down towards 1.75. 

The Northern Irishman's trend was upward despite the perception of increasingly turgid football. However, from a lower base – from around 1,5 xG difference up towards 1.7.

It is very hard to follow a possibly elite act like Postecoglou. 

Given structural weaknesses at the club, Rodgers is the one candidate that de-risks that, but we should all go in with eyes wide open.