What history tells us about Celtic's European prospects - James Dailey

This creates a challenge when attempting to extend some analysis to Brendan Rodgers’ tenure at Leicester City, as there is a lack of access to English Premier League history. However, Celtic and Leicester City did share a common tournament in the 2021-2022 Europa League group stages and that is the topic of this column’s review.

To set the stage, Celtic supporters are likely to recall the opponents as being Bayer Leverkusen, Real Betis, and Ferencvaros. Leicester City played in a group with Napoli, Spartak Moscow, and Legia Warsawa.

Through the lens of financial resources, Celtic were third in the group following the two clubs from the top five leagues, while Leicester City topped their group, with Napoli not too far behind. To place this into some perspective, Leicester City’s wage bill has registered at about triple Celtic’s typical run rate since Rodgers' arrival in his first tenure. 

First, the usual caution about dealing with a small sample size is warranted. This is an exercise to try and gather some context regarding topics such as style of play, managerial tendencies, etc. 

This initial radar offers a broad overview between the two clubs during their six group stage games, and generally conforms to the relative disparity in financial resources. While both teams finished third in their respective groups, with Leicester City on ten points and Celtic on nine, the underlying performance metrics generally skewed significantly towards Leicester City. 

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The radar also highlights some of the nuances in relative styles of play between Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rodgers. For example, while both teams held possession the majority of the time, the amount of possession, pace towards goal, and directness metrics all point towards a Leicester City side more deliberate in their possession. 

So, what contributed to the disparity in results for Leicester City versus what the underlying metrics reflected? 

From this on-ball value radar, we can see that the level of keeper-play for Leicester City was not good over the six games. Again, this is an exercise to decompose the performances and is not intended to be extrapolated as to player quality, which is obviously driven over long periods of time. Here is a radar comparing Joe Hart and Kasper Schmeichel over the games in which they played:

The metrics offer an insight into how neither keeper performed all that well relative to their peer group benchmarks, but that Schmeichel had a really rough group relative to shot stopping while also facing some decent finishing from opponents. Leicester City conceded 11 goals versus 6.41 in total xG conceded (no penalties conceded).

By comparison, Celtic conceded 14 non-penalty goals versus 10.94 non-penalty xG. We can also see some differences in the way in which each keeper was asked to play their position, as Hart was asked to play much more of a sweeper-keeper role, reflected in the much higher number of passes from open play and carries of the ball.  

This xG-centric radar offers a more granular look at the relative dominance in financial resources and how that can manifest in underlying performance levels. Leicester City’s advantages were significant and diverse across various phases of play. 

The shot-focused radar breaks down how each team took and conceded attempts on goal, where again, some interesting disparities can be seen. While Celtic were able to create a very high amount of clear shots, the team was extremely vulnerable to conceding clear shots, as well as shots from opposition counter-attacks and a high press. The high press shots metric is of particular note, it could be argued, relative to the disparity in how each team's keeper was deployed. 

This final radar drills down further into how each team defended and pressed. The intensity of Leicester City’s defending is reflected in the volume of defensive and pressing actions, though Celtic were the more efficient of the two teams. Relative to set pieces, Leicester City enjoyed a huge advantage, scoring four goals and conceding zero, while Celtic scored two and conceded three.

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Leicester City’s subsequent run to the semi-finals in the Europa Conference League, where they lost a tight tie to Jose Mourinho’s Roma, was also in contrast to Celtic’s unpleasant 5-1 exit to Bodo/Glimt. Those outcomes were more in line with the underlying performance levels in the Europa League group stages, which were largely reflective of the financial disparity. 

Managers are not miracle workers, and the quality of talent and financial resources with which they have to work are paramount. On balance, the analysis continues to point towards Brendan Rodgers’ style of play and tactics as being a better strategic match for Celtic, given the gap in financial resources inherent to competing in the Champions League.