How Celtic duo can bring Jamie Vardy counter devastation factor

You may reasonably ask; In a league plagued by unimaginative hoofs up the park, Celtic are the one side where the ball is kept on the ground so who was the last true target man for whom the mixer was their dominion? Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink? Even he had more subtleties than that.

Two aspects of Celtic’s recent play under Brendan Rodgers seem apposite and got me thinking about the fit of the current squad to play more direct. Firstly is the Rodgers maxim about flexibility. This is a wide topic and relates mainly to players being capable of playing different roles and different team systems. But that also means different playing requirements. For example, if you are looking to counter-attack a more possession-dominant side as opposed to seeking to control the ball yourself (think European away days), then sometimes going direct to fast-breaking forwards is needed. This was a ploy used often by Leicester City, utilising the breakout speed of Jamie Vardy.

Which brings us to the frustration of former boss Ange Postecoglou. When you watch Celtic live, it is apparent that Kyogo Furuhashi makes run after run after run without receiving the ball. Postecoglou realised this and encouraged earlier more lofted passes to better exploit opportunities. If Daizen Maeda is up front, then the same possibilities exist – indeed, Maeda is a useful proxy for Vardy.

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And it is not only about hitting the frontmen early. Celtic will also come across teams who press high, like their city rivals, and the ability to break the initial pressing lines with longer passes is a vital tool in the box. So, how does the current group match up? For this, it is worth using StatsBomb’s long balls per 90 minutes and accuracy percentage data. We will consider the different positional populations going back to 2018/19 when the data is available for – coincidentally Rodgers’ last season.

Goalkeepers

Under Rodgers, Scott Bain, still at Celtic remember, won his place over Craig Gordon in the 2018/19 season. Not only was Gordon’s shot-stopping declining, but Rodgers also wanted a goalkeeper secure in possession. Not only did Bain prove to be a sound shot-stopper in the second half of that season, but his long distribution from the back was also the best of the recent cadre of keepers in that period. His 2020/21 performances were the poorest by these metrics also, highlighting perhaps a lack of consistency.

That was a few seasons ago now, and Neil Lennon quickly brought back Fraser Forster for the following campaign. Postecoglou’s number one, Joe Hart, has adapted adequately to the demands put on him with the ball at his feet. Possessing a first-class attitude to change, in contrast to the rather reluctant Gordon, Hart is nudging 60 per cent in long ball accuracy. 

The top-end difference-making in shot-stopping will be needed to progress in Europe, but distribution from the back will be a factor in Rodgers' thinking. In that respect, Hart remains a solid enough option but there is a much wider conversation to be had about where he can improve.

Full-Backs

In this category, the current full-backs occupy the top right corner, which might surprise some. Why? Because of the possession-based nature under Postecoglou compared to Lennon’s more direct approach. Data and perception often don’t align perfectly. Inverted full-backs attempting aggressive vertical passes was certainly a feature under the Australian, with Greg Taylor being adept. Alistair Johnston is also capable of landing from a distance. Ralston consistently shows up well by these metrics.

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Some of this is team style. As mentioned above, Postecoglou often implored his side to hit Furuhashi earlier. And it would appear, compared to recent years, the current crop of full-backs is capable of playing the occasional longer pass with accuracy.

Centre-Backs

The back two are usually the most ball-dominant in the team and, therefore, distribution is a vital skill set in a Celtic centre-back. Least likely to be man marked and with opponents often sitting deep, the Celtic centre halves normally have significant ball time and often complete over 100 passes per 90 minutes.

Two sad tales of varying degrees. Top right is Filip Benkovic who had a high-quality but injury-curtailed spell at Celtic on loan in 2018/19. With Rodgers going on to manage his parent club Leicester City there were high hopes the Croat was going to have a stellar career – the data certainly loved him. Now with Udinese but on the continual loan train, Celtic remains the team he appeared most for since leaving Dinamo Zagreb. At 26 it seems his huge talent will be unfulfilled. He is the benchmark for long-pass excellence amongst recent centre-backs. 

Secondly, many forget how dominant and effective Christopher Jullien was given the length of time his injury put him out, then the low-key nature of his eventual departure. But initially, and especially in the 2019/20 season, he was as good a centre-back as seen at Celtic in modern times. Current picks Carter-Vickers, Starfelt and Welsh all figure in the top quadrant but strangely all for their 2021/22 efforts. This is counterintuitive as Celtic attempted more long balls in the last season (21 compared to 19.9 successful in 2021/22).  

We are yet to see the full range of Yuki Kobayashi’s passing, which looks initially encouraging, but this is an area Celtic would perhaps benefit from strengthening as regards the ability to mix up distribution from the back.

Central Midfield

Of recent midfielders, it is perhaps Olivier Ntcham who had the greatest range of passing capabilities. The chart highlights this but also his inconsistency season over season. A younger Callum McGregor also features but his more recent seasons show less inclination to try longer passes. Indeed, the current crop are all low in volume and accuracy, with only Reo Hatate managing 60 per cent accuracy last season. This is another attribute whereby Aaron Mooy will be missed. As Matt O’Riley and David Turnbull neither attempt many longer passes nor are particularly accurate.

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So, again, central midfield is an area where Celtic needs to replace Mooy’s range of passing capabilities to provide the best mix of threats to the opposition.

Summary

Long ball passing will never be a cornerstone of Celtic attacking play. However, with Rodgers likely to go more counter-attacking against tougher opponents and to get the most out of fast mobile strikers Maeda and Furuhashi, there needs to be increased capability in the squad to deliver the occasional longer pass.

The full-back areas look very capable in this regard. But from centre-back and central midfield, there does not appear to be a player for whom this is a core skill. To make Celtic as flexible as possible, it may well be a consideration for future recruitment.