Celtic's creativity problem and how it can be fixed

But for now, it feels like worth focusing on the relative lack of creativity. It's sometimes taken as 'chance creation' and that is certainly one aspect. I take it in the widest sense to mean positive, forward, ball progression and taking opponents out the game with runs and passes.

Was It Bad?

Celtic generated 1.46 xG to Kilmarnock’s 1.2 from eight shots to six and six chances created to four. They entered the opposition box 23 times to nine. In short – too much space for negative variance to make mischief.

Last season Celtic’s domestic averages for the above would have been:

xG = 2.71

Shots = 17.6

Chances = 15

Box Possession = 33.6

So, yes, it was not good based on the 2022/23 benchmark. Against Kilmarnock at Rugby Park the total xG for and against last season was 6.42 to 2.06 in 5-0 and 4-1 victories.

What Went Wrong?

That’s what Brendan Rodgers is paid the big bucks to identify and fix! You are stuck with this analysis, unfortunately. As always in these assessments, no 'bogeyman' or 'silver bullet' answer exists. Many things are usually suboptimal at once.

Compound Interest

When you have a lot of injuries, this can have a compounding impact as regards performances across the squad. The compound effect of an aging goalkeeper, a brand-new centre-back (Gustaf Lagerbielke), a backup right-back (Tony Ralston), a second centre-back (Maik Nawrocki) shifted from the left to the right, playing with a new partner and a left back (Greg Taylor) badly lacking confidence does not provide a stable foundation layer. Add in a debutant (starting) in central midfield in Thiago Odin Holm.

Opposition Cohesion

Kilmarnock were coming off the back of two excellent results, a win over Rangers and a draw away to Hearts. They came into the match with a settled starting XI and new singings well bedded in after seven competitive matches. While modestly successful with the ball, where Kilmarnock really nullified a strong part of Celtic’s capabilities is in their own defensive third.

Kilmarnock have the highest proportion of passes completed in the opposition half versus their own half after two SPFL matches. 69 per cent of the passes they complete are in the opposition territory. They are simply not interested in trying to play the ball around in their own defensive third. As well as reducing danger (three goals conceded in eight games now), it served to reduce the effect of Celtic’s highly developed pressing and counter-pressing capabilities.

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Kilmarnock lost the ball zero times in their own defensive third. That did not happen last season. The lowest was two by Real Madrid and Hibernian. They simply whacked, hoofed and generally cleared any ball as far away from their own goal as quickly as possible. Very effective aspects of Kyogo Furuhashi, Daizen Maeda and Matt O’Riley’s games were nullified.

They also now have a competent goalkeeper in Will Dennis on loan from AFC Bournemouth. Dennis has had ten saves total 2.85 post shot xG for no goals conceded in two league games and this tie. 

No one could argue Kilmarnock were fluid and incisive, but they were stubborn and risk-averse and made few defensive errors.

Wide Woe

Thanks to @Tony_McLaughlin on X who pointed out that under Ange Postecoglou, Liel Abada and Daizen Maeda appeared in relatively few matches together as wingers. In 2021-22 Maeda would often be the striker with Abada wide during Furuhashi’s injury.

Primarily this is about balance. Both players like to get the ball in front of them and run at or behind defences. More specifically, Maeda is best running in behind or on the diagonal to balls fed behind the defence.

Abada prefers to get the ball near the box and play quick passes using movement to create chances. Where both are relatively weak is playing with their back to goal and receiving balls on the touchline 40-50 yards from the nets. Neither tricks or blasts past defenders and the result the often have to turn back and play the ball to a midfielder.

Against Kilmarnock, Maeda led the team in receiving pack passes – those forward passes that take opponents out of the game. Lagerbielke became skilled at finding the Japanese. Maeda received 14 such passes for a packing score of 85. 

Abada was third highest with a receive-packing score of 54 but from only six-pack passes (notable through balls from McGregor and Taylor being impactful). Overall, from that possession, they created a total of one chance between them – Abada’s pass to Furuhashi in 48 minutes. Both provided one danger zone pass.

In summary, Celtic were able to get the ball to the wide players frequently, but they were not able to turn that good field position into chances for colleagues. Neither had a single shot at goal either. When Celtic had Jota, he could take a pass from any height, angle or length and control and drive forward from it. 

Celtic’s two wide players had too similar limitations meaning that the opposition can press right onto them and force them back without the risk Jota posed of beating that press through control and skill. This makes Celtic predictable and therefore easier to defend against.

Speed

Last season Celtic managed to play Kilmarnock similarly, whether home or away. They averaged 619 completed passes in four matches in three different venues. Here Celtic averaged 529, almost 100 less. This can be a proxy for speed of ball movement. The quicker the passing and more completed the more you are potentially moving the opposition around.

They averaged 81 pack passes last season against this opponent although only 65 were completed here. It is difficult to blame the new players and Lagerbielke is noted for his extremely successful long-passing skills. In the first half, this was maybe overdone as he lost the ball with 10 passes from open play and 19 in total. Add in Nawrocki with 12 and that is too many from your centre-backs who are supposed to be the safest in possession. 

Speed of passing and keeping the opposition moving when faced with Derek McInnes’s trademark man-to-man midfield requires bravery on and off the ball. Players need to work hard to make space but those with the ball cannot wait until a player is unmarked or free. Sometimes you must hit the player with the pass when marked and aim for their strong foot or the player on the half turn to maximise the forward opportunities.

Too often, Celtic defenders turned back and went safe. This is likely a combination of the above – lack of movement and lack of braver passing decisions. Given the new players settling in, this is maybe understandable.

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Summary

It was a chastening defeat but, more importantly, a very poor overall performance. Even if the officials correctly sent off Daniel Armstrong and awarded Sead Haksabanovic a penalty for being chopped down in the box, it would not have altered the performance assessment.

Some of this is bedding down new players amidst constant change at centre-back, but we have been here before, and it was telling McGregor referenced Livingston away in Postecoglou’s first season – a similarly bereft performance. Fans must be patient and hopefully, key players return, strength is added to the known weak areas, and lessons are learned.