Why the writing is on the wall for Celtic defender Nawrocki

With five games to go in the Scottish Premiership title race and with Celtic currently three points ahead of Rangers the defending champions still need a settled defensive partnership. Read that sentence again: 'The defending champions still do not have a settled defensive partnership'.

We're 33 games into the season with just the split fixtures left. Celtic's defensive problems have been laid bare in all their technicoloured glory throughout this season. It almost came home to roost at the national stadium last weekend when Brendan Rodgers's men conceded in the last minute of normal time and the last minute of injury time in the 3-3 pulsating draw with Aberdeen in the Scottish Cup semi-final which the holders eventually won on penalties.

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Now Liam Scales at times this season has been a colossus for Celtic in the absence of the glue that holds the central defence together - Cameron Carter-Vickers. The USA international is a rock at the back of the pack. That's for certain.

However, Scales has punched well above his weight this season and over-achieved. Yes. The Republic of Ireland's international centre-half has overachieved. He has been solid for most of the campaign not least of all the first Glasgow derby fixture at Ibrox back in September when somehow alongside Gustaf Lagerbielke the pair managed to shut out Rangers completely. That was a welcome if not unexpected victory for the Northern Irishman and his troops.

You see the problem with relying too much on a player who started the season as the sixth-choice centre-back at the club - behind Carter-Vickers, Maik Nawrocki, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Stephen Welsh and Yuki Kobayashi - and who had one foot heading for the exit door and the other on the proverbial banana skin is that the cracks will eventually start to appear. So too were the deficiencies in his game that were cruelly exposed by Aberdeen in the latter stages of the game - twice. Scales was targeted as a potential weak link in the Celtic side by the Reds - why wouldn't they?

Rodgers likes Scales. That much is evident. The problem he now has as we enter the post-split matches is that he may have to drink from the Scales well to see his team over the line. It's a dreadful state of affairs that Rodgers sees Scales as the better option to Pole Maik Nawrocki and Swede Gustaf Lagerbielke when Celtic shelled out the guts of £7.3 million on the pair. The fact that Nawrocki and Lagerbielke have been deemed not good enough to dislodge Scales from the team at any point of this season consistently is a story for another day in terms of the recruitment and those who were allowed to fritter 'loadsamoney' away on the defensive duo.

Rodgers now has a defensive dilemma on his hands for the final few games. Does he mix it up this late in the season and bring in Nawrocki to replace Scales for the final five matches starting against Dundee on Sunday at Dens Park or does he stick with Scales and hope for the best?

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The 25-year-old was as culpable as anybody for the loss of the late goals against the Dons - twice. He got caught under the flight of Junior Hoilett's crosses from the left and was never in the position to contest the headers.

The concession of goals cost points. The concession of goals could ultimately cost Celtic the title or worse still the 'double'. Is Scales an accident waiting to happen? We will find out over the course of the next five league matches. As for Nawrocki, well he has never made a strong enough argument for his selection and Lagerbielke should have signed for Lecce in January but a quirk of football fate and an injury to Carter-Vickers saw him stay put in Glasgow.

Let's get one thing straight: if Nawrocki does not start at Dens Park against Dundee on Sunday after Scales' off-colour show at Hampden Park last week then the club are effectively saying that they will listen to offers for him in the summer. Nawrocki was thrown on late at the national stadium to stem the 'Red Tide' as Aberdeen threw the kitchen sink at Celtic. He didn't succeed. The 'Scales' have never been in Nawrocki's favour all campaign.

It will also tell you that Rodgers will persevere with Scales and limp over the line if they can see it out. Back in December, Rodgers clearly marked Nawrocki and Lagerbielke's card. The Celtic manager was asked why Nawrocki and Lagerbielke were failing to make matchday squads despite being fit.

Rodgers declared then: "It’s always personality. There are clearly players ahead of them. What always ticks my attention is training, I’m out there every day watching training and when I see players train and work with that personality they will edge closer to my thinking.

“Unfortunately, for Maik and Gustaf, Scales has come to the team and has really taken his opportunity. It’s an area of the team you don’t want to change too much.”

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It was a warning shot over the bow. It's also a position he hasn't really deviated from all season and there is little evidence to suggest that will happen in the last five games of the campaign. The summer transfer window was an abomination of epic proportions. Rodgers has found that out to his cost after being served up two sub-standard defensive players who just didn't quite fit into his football team or his system of playing. Don't be fooled by the price tag. It's not always about the money, money, money.

It's a fair bet to say that this summer Celtic will be in the market to sign another 'top-class' defender in the Carter-Vickers ilk. Even Stephen Welsh when he has come in to partner Carter-Vickers has looked like a vastly improved player playing alongside the ever-reliable American.

Yet there were worrying signs against Aberdeen that the glue was being ripped apart at Hampden as Carter-Vickers' game also suffered because of Scales' unerring ability to switch off. Those lapses dragged Carter-Vickers down to a mediocre level at times. It was certainly one of the worst defensive displays the Yank has put in during his whole Celtic career.

At this current juncture, Scales is the only centre-back that Rodgers trusts to do the job alongside Carter-Vickers. Rodgers must be scratching his head wondering how it has all come down to this. It is also a matter of conjecture and opinion as to who is the better of the two between Scales and Nawrocki.

Ultimately only one opinion matters and that is Rodgers. Whether you want a ball-playing centre-half, someone who is good in the air, good in the tackle, can anticipate danger or can read a game, is good at passing out from defence, or carries a physical presence, it doesn't matter what label you throw at them as Rodgers appears to have decided that Scales edges it in the majority of those departments over Nawrocki. The Scottish Premiership and Scottish Cup double is at risk if Rodgers gets that crucial decision wrong in the next five games.

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It breaks down like this if Celtic wins the title and it's still a big if they simply cannot go into the newly revamped Champions League with the same calibre and quality of defensive players. That would be an act of self-harm.

There has to be a total recalibration of Celtic's recruitment policy this summer and a massive rebuild starting at the back with a goalkeeper and a central defender. The club will simply have to jettison the likes of Nawrocki, Lagerbielke and Kobayashi from the ranks in the coming months if they are to move forward. As for Scales, he may well have done enough to earn a bumper new deal because of his exploits this season but he would be nothing more than a squad player at his best in the future which would put him back to where he started at the beginning of this season.

Ah yes, the beginning of the season. Remember that? Celtic were needlessly worried about replacing the Superstar from Portugal - Jota on the wing. A once in a lifetime player. The club shouldn't have concerned themselves with that as it was a thankless task from the outset. They should have busied themselves with sourcing a top-class replacement for the much-maligned Carl Starfelt. They didn't. They armed or rather saddled the new manager with both Nawrocki and Lagerbielke.

The Celtic support can all see now that the loss of Starfelt was arguably greater than Jota's departure. What Rodgers wouldn't give for a Starfelt to partner Carter-Vickers for the remaining five post-split fixtures. Starfelt never earned the moniker Super Swede like Henrik Larsson or Johan Mjallby did in Paradise but he was a 'Super-Trouper' at the heart of the Celtic defence.

In fact, in hindsight, you could say the Carter-Vickers/Starfelt partnership was 'Off the Scales'.