These THREE midfielders can replace Matt O'Riley at Celtic

The manager and players’ focus will now firmly be on the first of five crucial post-split fixtures which start with a trip to Dundee on Sunday. Behind the scenes though, the club will be continuing to make plans to reshape the squad ahead of next season. With that in mind, last week we identified three candidates to add to Brendan Rodgers’ (currently limited) options at left-back. This week, we will take a look at what will likely be another priority position come the summer, central midfield. 

Celtic did well to hold off interest in Matt O’Riley, who picked up the man of the match award in last Saturday’s semi-final win, earlier this year, knocking back a substantial bid from La Liga giants Atletico Madrid. The subject of interest last summer as well, many expect the Danish international - who has 24 goal contributions in 32 league appearances this season - to make a big move at the end of the current campaign. If he does, Rodgers will certainly be keen to add another - particularly creative - central midfielder to offset O’Riley’s departure.

Here - as we did for the left-back position - we highlight three potential central midfield targets that could go some way to replacing the sizeable contribution made by O’Riley over the last two-and-a-half seasons. Again, the approach for this is data-led and within the club’s recent model. Each player suggested 24 years old or younger and currently playing leagues that the club would likely be scouting extensively. We have also upped the potential value to around £7m this time, given these types of players usually command a premium fee.

Although not looking for an exact like-for-like with O’Riley, there are also some general profile traits that we are looking to identify, such as effectiveness in build-up play, chance creation and an ability to chip in with goals themselves. Given they could potentially be in a midfield three alongside Calum McGregor and Reo Hatate, a level of defensive contribution, an underrated part of O’Riley’s game, will also be a key consideration.

Adem Zorgane - Charleroi

The first suggestion is Adem Zorgane, currently with Charleroi in Belgium’s Pro League. The 24-year-old Algerian international has been a standout for his club despite their struggles this season – Charleroi ended the regular campaign in the relegation play-off spots.

Now in his third season with the Belgian side after moving from Algeria’s top-flight in 2021, Zorgane has been their creator-in-chief, averaging 0.78 key passes per 90, the highest for a central midfielder in the league, and generating 0.28 xA per 90, the second-highest. Accomplished in providing for others, he is also capable of chipping in with goals himself, coming in around average, compared to his positional peers in Belgium, for his goal threat (0.08 goals per 90 from 0.08 xG per 90).

Composed on the ball, Zorgane tops each volume pass metric included in the below percentile rank chart even though Charleroi are averaging less of the ball than their opponent in the league this season (47.34 per cent). His accuracy for general passes (82.19 per cent) and short/medium passes (87.46 per cent) come in around average with his progressive pass accuracy (80.06 per cent) particularly impressive.

Capable of progressing the ball effectively through carries too – his 1.36 progressive passes rank in the 75th percentile – Zorgane’s high level of technical ability is coupled with impressive physicality.

At 6’0”, he is an imposing figure in the middle of the park and he boasts one of the highest aerial duel win percentages of central midfielders in the Belgian Pro League (56.86 per cent). His defensive duel win rate (62.28 per cent) ranks just above the 50th percentile mark. A perfect fit for a more possession-dominant side like Celtic, rather than one struggling in the lower reaches of the Belgian Pro League, Zorgane will no doubt be in high demand this summer.

Charleroi fended off interest from Lyon and Anderlecht for their prized asset last summer so any potential move for him would likely need to be made quickly when the transfer window opens in June. That previous interest and a current contract to 2027 would also see Charleroi demand a fee of more than his current valuation of just over £4m (Transfermrkt), but hopefully one that would still be within Celtic’s budget.

Marko Bulat – Dinamo Zagreb

The second candidate is Dinamo Zagreb’s Marko Bulat. Capped up to under-21 with Croatia, Bulat was highly regarded coming through at Sibenik in his homeland and came close to a move to Barcelona before the pandemic in 2020. The young playmaker made the move to Dinamo the following year instead but has continued to catch the eye in Croatia’s HNL.

A box-to-box type, he has a bit of everything to his game. He has been one of the Croatian top-flight’s most prolific central midfielders this season, averaging 0.31 goals per 90 from 0.18 xG per 90. A high-volume shooter, he takes on more shots than any other player in his position in the league (2.91 per 90) with his lower xG per shot (0.06) suggesting he takes on plenty on longer shots. He gets in the box regularly too though (2.2 touches in the box per 90) and he attempts a high number of dribbles (3.06 per 90), although his successful dribble percentage (51.28 per cent) ranks in below the 50th percentile.

Surprisingly, given Dinamo’s relative domestic dominance (they have averaged 60.12 per cent of the ball in the league this season), his passing volume metrics are ranks are relatively low. More importantly, when he is on the ball he is very efficient, ranking in the top quartile for all three, overall passes, short/medium passes and progressive passes. His accurate progressive passing percentage (83.78 per cent) is particularly impressive.

His chance creation comes through strongly too, averaging 0.24 key passes per 90 and 0.20 xA per 90, the latter amongst the highest of all players included in the dataset which covers all central midfielders in the HNL that have played over 1,000 minutes. He ticks the defensive contribution box with the highest rank for his defensive duel win percentage (72.15 per cent) amongst his positional peers. At 45.45 per cent, his aerial win rate is not quite as impressive as Zorgane’s though.

Linked with a move to Rangers earlier this year, a reported fee of £5m was said to have put Celtic’s rivals off following up on their initial interest. He has since signed a new long-term deal with Zagreb too. However, if he were available for a similar fee again this summer then he would be worth considering for Celtic if, or more likely when, it comes to replacing O’Riley.  

Daniel Svensson – Nordsjaelland

The final player suggested is Nordsjaelland’s Daniel Svensson. A product of the Danish side’s renowned academy, the 22-year-old Swede looks set to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Andreas Skov Olsen, Muhammed Kudus and Ernest Nuamah in becoming their latest success story.

Although he doesn’t offer a huge goal threat (0.8 goals per 90 from 0.02 xG per 90), Svensson, who has on occasion filled in at left-back, certainly ticks the creativity box. No other central midfielder has generated more xA than the Swedish under-21 international (0.26 per 90) in the Danish Superliga this season while his key passes (0.41 per 90) rank just below the top quartile.

Effective in the build-up, Svensson’s possession accuracy metrics stack up very well against his positional peers in Denmark’s top tier. All three included in the percentile rank chart are above the 75th percentile. Nordsjaelland play a possession-based style (they have averaged 56.4 per cent possession in the league this season) so the highly technical Svensson would hopefully adapt well to Celtic possession-dominant style too.

Svensson’s defensive duel rate success (66.8 per cent) stands out in his defensive section while he also makes an above average, for a Danish Superliga midfielder, number of PAdj interceptions (5.86 per 90). Svensson’s aerial duel win rate (21.05 per cent), which ranks the lowest of all Superliga midfielders, could be one area of concern though.

Despite that potential aerial dual concern, Svensson also ticks a lot of the boxes of what we are looking for. Valued at around £2m (Transfermrkt), he recently signed a new long-term deal which puts Nordsjaelland in a strong position. Something in the region of £5m-£6m could well be enough to tempt them to part with their latest prospect, though.