THREE striking options Celtic should target this summer

Several key positions, such as goalkeeper and left-back, need to be addressed, while Brendan Rodgers will likely look to add another centre-back. Central midfield and the winger positions may also be areas that will require attention in the coming months. Another position where there are question marks is upfront. 

Having signed a new four-year extension last summer, Kyogo Furuhashi remains the club’s number-one striker. However, he is the only one of Celtic’s three current options in the position with a relatively certain future. Norwich City forward Adam Idah, brought in by Rodgers in January has no option to buy in his six-month loan deal. South Korean Oh Hyeon-gyu has found his game time limited this season, especially since Idah’s arrival at the start of the year. A move – either on loan or on a permanent – seems probable this summer for the 22-year-old.

Idah has exceeded expectations with seven goals and two assists in 14 appearances since his temporary switch from Carrow Road with the manager regularly praising the Republic of Ireland’s international’s impact. However, with no guarantees a deal will be reached between Norwich and Celtic this summer, the recruitment team at Lennoxtown will be on the lookout for other strikers who could provide competition for Kyogo.

Aberdeen’s Bojan Miovkski has again been mooted as a potential given his third goal against Celtic in the recent Scottish Cup semi-final. Linked with a January move to Glasgow earlier this year, the 24-year-old North Macedonian is believed to have plenty of suitors this summer though – several Serie A sides and Eredivisie’s Feyenoord were most recently credited with an interest.

Here, like recent scouting pieces looking at the left-back and central midfield positions, we identify three alternative striker targets the club could target this summer. As with the other positions, the approach for this is data-led and within the club’s recent model. Again, there are some profile traits that we are looking to identify too.

Given Idah’s profile, the one striker Rodgers has signed since his return, we will look to identify forwards in a similar mould. I.e. a more physical profile, compared to Kyogo, which can provide a reference point in attack for the team but who also still knows their way to the goal.

Zan Celar - Lugano

The first candidate is Swiss side Lugano’s Zan Celar. A Slovenian international, Celar was picked up by Roma in 2017 after impressing coming through the ranks at Maribor in his homeland. Proflific in Roma’s youth teams, he ultimately failed to make the breakthrough with the Giallorossi and, after loan moves to Cittadella and Cremonese in Serie B, he moved to Lugano in 2021. Now in his third season with the Swiss Super League side, Celar has hit double figures in all three league campaigns and has been a regular in squads for his national side.

A classic number nine, Celar’s 2023/24 non-penalty goals work out at 0.49 per 90, about what he would be expected to score this season (0.48 xG per 90). A steady goalscorer, Celar gets to high-quality chances (0.18 xG per shot) and offers a threat in the air (0.13 head goals per 90).

Celar doesn’t offer too much in the way of ball carrying, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile versus his positional peers in the Swiss Super League for dribbles, successful dribbles % and progressive runs.

Despite Lugano being a possession-dominant side (they have the second-highest average ball possession in the Swiss Super League this season, 55.5 per cent), Celar is not heavily involved in build-up either. His received passes (9.02 per 90) and all his possession volume metrics rank in the lowest quartile. However, his accuracy rates for both his short/medium passes (83.01 per cent) and progressive passes (76.47 per cent) are above average, the latter amongst the best of all strikers in Switzerland’s top flight.

Celar’s 0.18 key passes per 90 are towards the lower end of the percentile rank in that metric but his xA (0.09 per 90) does come in above average, again indicating that he may not produce a great volume of passes but when he does they are generally effective/productive.

His defensive section shows he may not offer too much off-the-ball, averaging just 1.74 defensive duels per 90 with a 28.21 per cent win rate. His aerial prowess and ability to act as a good reference point comes through here too though, ranking in the top quartile for his aerial duels won (41.56 per cent).

Valued at just under £3.5m (Transfermarkt), and about to enter the final year of his contract, the 25-year-old would probably not break the bank.

Tobias Lauritsen – Sparta Rotterdam

The next suggested target is Sparta Rotterdam’s Tobias Lauritsen. Celtic already have form with strikers from the Eredivisie, the most recent example being Giorgos Giakoumakis. The Dutch top flight could again provide a striking solution in the form of Lauritsen. The towering centre-forward spent all of his career in his native Norway up to the summer of 2022 when he made the move to Rotterdam.  After a productive first season in the Eredivisie last season, scoring 13 and providing three assists, Lauritsen has again hit double figures this season.

The 26-year-old’s ten goals and nine assists have been key for Sparta, who currently sit in eighth position in this season’s Eredivisie.

As the percentile chart shows, Laurtisen has a higher rank for xG than his non-penalty goals. Three of his ten goals have come from the spot but he has also underperformed on his xG (0.28 non-pen goals per 90 from 0.53 xG per 90) too – he also slightly underperformed on his xG in 2022/23. Although some room for improvement in the finishing, his goalscoring numbers would translate well enough to the Scottish Premiership while he is also likely to get higher-quality chances playing in a more dominant side like Celtic.

In terms of ball-carrying, Lauritsen may not offer too much in this regard. He attempts just 0.87 dribbles per 90 but does have one of the highest ranks for his dribbles success rate (59.09 per cent). This, coupled with his remarkable aerial numbers (he is involved in more aerial duels than any other Eredivisie centre-forward, 14.43 per 90, winning 53.7 per cent of them, second highest win rate), indicate he is more than capable of holding the ball up and providing that reference point.

His possession section highlights one potential area of concern. Although a highly effective focal point, his short/medium passing rate of 67.78 per cent is one of the lowest of all strikers in the Eredivisie. Getting him involved in long passages of play with short passes is therefore unlikely to get the best out of Lauritsen. Although not appearing to be overly effective in the build-up, Lauritsen boasts more impressive ranks in the creative possession metrics.  His 0.55 key passes per 90 is one of the highest for an Eredivisie centre-forward while his 0.1 xA per 90 is comfortably above average.

Like Celar, Lauritsen is about to enter the final year of his contract and is valued at less than £3m, although reported interest from Serie A sides may drive that price up but unlikely to a point that would be out with Celtic’s budget.

Matheus Saldanha – Partizan

The final player on our three-man shortlist is perhaps the most ambitious suggestion, Brazilian Matheus Saldanha. He has had an interesting career to date, which has included spells in Brazil, Japan, China and Azerbaijan. The 24-year-old joined Serbian side Partizan from J2 League outfit JEF United Chiba last summer for around £1m.

Scoring 16 and laying on a further five, the Brazilian has had an outstanding first season in Serbian football, as some of his percentile rank chart below shows.

Only one other centre-forward in the Serbian SuperLiga has a better non-penalty goal-per-game rate than Saldanha this season (0.63 per 90). This is about what he would have been expected to score (0.69 xG per 90). He has averaged just over three shots per match (3.28 per 90) and has one of the highest xG per shot ranks (0.21 xG per shot) and goal conversion percentages (23.53 per cent).

Saldanha profiles as much more of a ball carrier than the other two options with his 5.12 dribbles and 60.38 per cent successful dribbles percentage ranking in the top quartile. Like the other two, he is not as involved in possession with low ranks for received passes, passes, and short/medium passes while his short/medium passes percentage rank is also low. His accuracy percentage for his progressive passes (75 per cent) does rank well and he certainly looks like he offers creativity too, ranking above the 75th percentile for his key passes 0.53 per 90) and xA (0.13 per 90).

Defensively, Saldanha doesn't boast the highest ranks for either of his duel success rates but he does have an above-average rank for his PAdj interceptions, indicating some level of work off the ball. At 6’1”, the same height as Celar, he would still offer a decent presence up front.

Fenerbahce and Besiktas are reportedly keen, the former having a bid knocked back for the skilful Brazilian in January. Partizan are said to be looking for closer to £8m/£9m. Given the other areas of the pitch that require attention, that may be a bit too rich for Celtic but there is no doubt he would be an exciting addition to the frontline.