It was following a cameo appearance in the Scottish Cup against Livingston that Brendan Rodgers unexpectedly eulogised about Celtic's veteran winger James Forrest.
As reported on the BBC site, he claimed that the 32-year-old was “our best winger”. Given he had not appeared since 23rd December and had only completed 434 minutes up to that tie, it was a surprising comment. Even more so given under prior manager Ange Postecoglou, Forrest was objectively a fifth-choice winger based on appearances/minutes.
Celtic had invested heavily in the wide areas this campaign. Luis Palma, Nicolas Kuhn, Yang Hyun-jun and Marco Tilio were brought in to replace Jota and Liel Abada whilst Daizen Maeda remained a preferred pick. Even more surprising was that Forrest did not start a match following those comments until 28th April in a crucial league match away at Dundee.
Now, he has started four matches in a row as the season climaxes. The question is: What does Forrest bring that perhaps the others do not?
Forrest at 32
Firstly, let’s deal with what he doesn’t bring.
Clearly, Celtic are a high-pressing team, and a “running team” as Rodgers styled it in the BBC interview. Compared to Kuhn (28.47), he has fewer pressures per game (23.43). Also, he is not going to provide the ball carrying of yore. 6.38 ball carries are below the level provided by Yang (7.4) and Kuhn (8.13). This feature would be more important in Europe where ball carriers relieve pressure on the defence.
His defensive action success rate is higher only than Palma (35 per cent to 32 per cent). Whilst his possessions won from defensive actions rate of 32 per cent is lower than all his peers other than Palma again. He wins fewer challenges (2.69) than all the other wingers, but also has far fewer unsuccessful challenges (5.04) compared to an average of 8.1 across the other wingers.
Others provide more key passes and also his xA per chance provided is only 0.13 compared to 0.17 from Maeda. Forrest completes fewer pack passes and receives fewer than all the other wingers bar Maeda. This hints at what Forrest does bring – decision-making. In this case, avoiding challenges by keeping possession of the ball.
Celtic's best winger?
Forrest completes more passes than the other wide players (37.72) and is the only one to achieve 80 per cent pass completion. His cross success of 20 per cent is higher than all other wingers – Palma’s is 16 per cent.He also places more balls into the opposition danger zone (1.46) more often than all but Palma whose total is inflated by set-piece delivery.
In terms of a goal threat, he ranks second amongst his peers for touches in the box (8.17). He ranks first in total shots attempted (4.59) and equal second in shot quality (0.15 xG per shot attempted). His overall xG of 0.67 is much higher than all the other wingers with the nearest being Palma on 0.47 which falls to 0.33 when you remove penalties.
Perhaps crucially, and back to decision-making, it is what professionals like to call the “cleanness” of his play. He is rarely wasteful in possession. He is dispossessed 2.8 times per game, less than the other peers. He has fewer unsuccessful crosses and fewer incomplete dribbles. Forrest loses the ball 5.37 times in the final third which is nearly half the rate of Yang, Kuhn and Palma and lower than Maeda (5.81).
As such, he brings greater continuity to the attack even if the element of risk-taking is reduced when he plays. After all, this has been about getting over the line and as per the Dundee game away, grinding out wins.
Summary
Forrest’s off-ball performances will likely not scale to, e.g. European competition. His creativity given his relative lack of risk-taking, lags behind his peer group. However, he offers more of a consistent goal threat but within a performance set whereby he is “safer” in possession and less inclined to bad decisions or execution. The dynamism of old will likely not return but when the side is struggling you can rely on his wise choices with the ball.
It will be fascinating to see the extent of his involvement next season, but for now, given the recruitment limitations of the current season, he is the steady hand that has helped guide Celtic to yet another Scottish Premiership title.
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