Denmark’s opening game in the Euros against Slovenia on Sunday evening was an intriguing watch, especially for those of a Celtic persuasion. Not because of any of Brendan Rodgers’ players being involved, but rather the fact that one was not, which bewildered those based in both Scotland and Scandinavia.

Of course, we’re talking about Matt O’Riley, who was sensationally left out of Kasper Hjulmand’s 26-man squad for the ongoing tournament in Germany. Indeed, the Danes drew with their opponents 1-1, despite dominating for large parts against their Group C competitors. Christian Eriksen – exactly 1,100 days after suffering a cardiac arrest at the last European Championships – was there to apply the killer touch for his country, though Erik Janza would equalise just under 15 minutes from time to sour the mood for Hjulmand and his side in the group’s opening fixture.

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On that very same day (Sunday), reports from Spain exclaimed that Celtic had placed a £34 million valuation on their talisman’s head, a new record if met by any potential transfer suitors of O’Riley’s. A massive fee to impose on a player, especially one who has been snubbed by his nation despite having a stellar season.

The question many have – especially outside of the walls of Celtic Park and Lennoxtown – is if the player is worthy of such a fee. Using StatsBomb data, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay uses analytics to find out…

Before looking into the analytical data, however, let us look at the brute statistics that O’Riley managed in all competitions for Celtic – and Denmark, briefly – last season. In total, the midfielder – who can play any of the three central roles in the engine room – made 50 appearances for Rodgers’ side, scoring 19 goals and assisting a further 18 goals. A stalwart for the double-winning team, he started 49 of those 50 games, being available for essentially the duration of the season for his club. Making his debut for the country of his mother’s origin back in November, he made two appearances for Hjulmand’s team, before missing the cut at the final hurdle for Euro 2024 in Germany.

Despite being a small part of Denmark’s present, he was front and centre of everything good for Celtic in Scotland. With big goals domestically and assisting with ease on the European stage, he scooped up all of the main prizes at Celtic’s Player of the Year awards last month, a worthy winner for sure. Four goal involvements versus Rangers underlined his superiority in the Scottish Premiership, with the Glasgow Derby becoming his fixture just as much as Kyogo Furuhashi’s in the 2023/24 campaign.

In order to gauge O’Riley’s current level – and if he is worthy of that price tag – it is best to compare his numbers last season with the campaign before, as it was his first full season at Celtic. The Dane operates as the side’s furthest-forward midfielder, which is why we will categorise him as an ‘attacking midfielder’, rather than StatsBomb’s regular ‘midfielder’ grouping.

Above are the radars for O’Riley’s two full seasons at the club, under the management of Ange Postecoglou – the manager who signed him from MK Dons – and the incumbent Rodgers. What stands out is the lack of big changes in his data for each campaign, as his numbers have only fluctuated slightly between seasons, with a mixture of upgrades and downgrades concerning individual metrics. His passing has seen a slight reduction, perhaps due to more game-time under Rodgers than Postecoglou, when he was competing against Aaron Mooy for a starting berth at points. 79 per cent has lowered to 78 in a year, though his numbers in assists more than made up for this downgrade. He completed fewer deep progressions on average, too, reducing from 5.10 to 4.31, in turn, a percentile drop of 18.

On a more positive note, O’Riley won more fouls last season than the season before, though he only ranked in the 24th percentile in this metric. This could be because he tended to stay on the ball more than looking to go to the ground when challenged, though it is good to see him winning more fouls in good areas for his team. Elsewhere, he completed more successful dribbles under Rodgers than he did with Postecoglou, averaging 0.86 per 90 minutes. Overall, some areas to improve upon – potentially away from Celtic, unfortunately – but the makings of a very solid European-level midfielder in O’Riley.

If you want to truly see how much O’Riley has progressed as an offensive midfielder, then you only need to observe his respective shot maps from both of his full seasons at the club. Managing only three goals from 69 total shots in Postecoglou’s second – and final – season domestically, he really struggled to get going in attack. Judging by the volume of cold-shaded shapes, many of his opportunities were speculative, giving the opposition defenders and goalkeepers more of a chance of dealing with his advances.

Now take a look at his shot map from the season just past. 16 goals from 107 total shots is still a low conversion rate, but his shot selection is much more varied. Helped by taking penalties, many of his goals are situated in the box, though he has been successful at points from range, also. It is no surprise that his offensive form has seen an upturn thanks to the arrival of Rodgers, based on the manager's work with players like Philippe Coutinho, Luis Suarez and James Maddison, to name a few.

It is not just his shooting that has improved, but his passing, too – particularly passes that lead to danger. In the Scottish Premiership alone, he managed a mammoth 99 key passes, as shown in the graph above. From taking corners to working the ball from deep in midfield, O’Riley’s influence has been stamped and felt in Scotland over the past year or so.

Why is this, though? It is all down to availability, and the trust of a manager who believes that he can be the main man for his club. When observing his minutes played, he only missed one game last season, a match versus Ross County in Dingwall which he was rested for in preparation for a European game three days later (Atletico Madrid away). Apart from this one occurrence, he played a part in every single match for the club domestically, cutting a dependable figure for his employer in the process.

Never injured, constantly available and a constant threat from midfield, Celtic are quite right to be sticking a hefty asking price on their star man’s name. If he had produced these numbers in, for example, the English Premier League, Championship or Serie A, then no one would be batting an eyelid. The fact that Celtic are comfortable in holding out for a record sale shows how the game of football is changing, and where the club want to be positioned going forward concerning player sales. It is a strategy that Celtic has adopted somewhat belatedly, but it is a welcomed change, all the same.

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Not to wish O’Riley away – we want nothing of the sort – but his future lies elsewhere, sooner rather than later. What will encourage those of a Celtic persuasion is that when that time comes – and it will – it will be an unmatched fee that pries him away from Rodgers’ clutches.