In the third delve into the characteristics of “BrendanBall”, we look at the creative facets of the game. Ball progression, getting the ball into dangerous areas and chance creation.

Brendan Rodgers’ sides are based on possession and patient probing. The twist this season was the realisation that to get the best out of a high-speed front line, and to disrupt often compact and settled defences, releasing Kyogo Furuhashi, Daizen Maeda and latterly Nicolas Kuhn early was advantageous. Celtic weren’t as possession-obsessed as his first tenure (pass completion was down to 86 per cent from 89 per cent in his last two seasons) and mixed it up with quick, direct passes more frequently. Overall possession was 65 per cent compared to 70 per cent in Rodgers’ final campaign.

Personnel-wise, the Irishman was dealt an “Ange-lite” squad. The recruitment difficulties came to a head after a near-disastrous January window with the resignation of Mark Lawwell. The inference is that Rodgers did not get the players he wanted to build in Ange Postecoglou’s highly cohesive attacking outfit. Shorn of Aaron Mooy and Jota, in particular, attacking fluidity seemed stilted at best. We know the league was won and Rodgers navigated the season successfully, but we are all here for the performance not the outcome, right? (well maybe not this season but, yes, normally!).

So, let’s break it down.

Opportunity

Firstly, a simple concept that is worth monitoring for many reasons. How long is the ball in play?

This might seem a basic point, but we’ve all seen FIFA introducing “real-time” into the last World Cup, whereby every wasted moment was added onto the end of each half resulting in many matches exceeding 100 minutes elapsed. How frustrating has it been to see opponents waste time from virtually the first throw-in or goal kick especially at Celtic Park?

The Scottish Football Association (SFA) are forced to fall into line with UEFA guidelines on this otherwise it will be even longer before we see a Scottish official at an international tournament. Therefore, this season, referees were more inclined to add on time lost to wastage. The trend is clear.

 

Celtic saw the highest in-play time for the ball since we have records. Nearly a minute and a half longer than last season when opponents tried to stymie “Ange-ball” with obfuscation and delay.

The context here is: Rodgers’ side had more opportunity to create than their predecessors, given the tweak to the interpretation of space and time (something SFA officials are masters of).

Breaking the lines

The most effective metric to measure forward passing is through packing. That is, counting the number of opponents taken out of the game from forward passes. Intuitively, it should be easier to score the fewer opponents are between yourself and their goal.

 

The significant increase in the volume of pack passes and their impact (packing score) – 55 per cent increase in pack passes since 2017-18 – speaks to changes in football style and philosophies. Celtic under Rodgers in 2017-18 were inclined to a resemblance of “tiki-taka” a la Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona team. Low blocks and aggressive counter-pressing can nullify that style and Celtic under Postecoglou sought possession, but also mixed with aggressive forward passing. That means adding risk, reducing overall pass completion, but increasing the likelihood of breaking a defence not yet set into a block.

Getting the balance right between keeping the ball and playing forwards quickly and effectively is an art, and one Postecoglou’s Celtic performed better than any peers hitherto as far as we have records. Rodgers’ team were a notch below in terms of pack-passing effectiveness. The loss of Reo Hatate was a hindrance. Matt O’Riley’s game became more about supporting the striker, and Callum McGregor is gradually declining in this sphere.

We are not talking about a gulf though. With better players - especially in central midfield - Celtic are not far off Postecoglou’s balance between control and forward aggression. Also, Celtic did get the ball to the forward players, especially the wide ones, successfully in the main. What happened next (or didn’t) is something I have covered extensively throughout the season. An upgrade in wing play performance will be another key area Rodgers needs to improve to see better numbers next season.

 

The mix of earlier passes did however mean the second-highest rate of chances created from pack passes. This even exceeded the Postecoglou period. The number of defenders taken out of the game by forward passes was much lower. Some of this is footballing trends. More teams are playing 3-5-2 variants meaning one less defender to pack! Yes, you can argue it is often a 5-4-1 out of possession. We are getting into the nuances of data definition and collection here.

This is another hint that Celtic are close to optimal attacking cohesion, but further tweaks are needed.

Running up that hill

Ball progression with the ball at your feet is less prevalent than passing but against packed defences, a much sought-after skill.

 

The 2017-18 team was the high point of running football. Rodgers’ squad contained Kristoffer Ajer, Kieran Tierney, Stuart Armstrong, James Forrest and Scott Sinclair. All could progress the ball up the park at speed. I wonder if we will see similarly skilled players recruited this summer.

Although last season was the second-highest overall rate of progressive runs, it was the season with the lowest pack dribbling score (6.8 per 90 minutes). This reflects that the centre-backs - in particular - took on much of the deep ball-carrying activity. And as we know, the wingers were not particularly adept at beating a man. The tendency to cut inside, or pass back, or lose the ball was a feature throughout the season.

Getting that pack dribble score up means more players are being taken out the game by ball running as opposed to simply making yards.

Delivery

In terms of providing chances, the Postecoglou mini-era was notable for Guardiola-esque low, firm crosses along the vicinity of the six-yard box. This was tailor-made for first-time finishers Kyogo Furuhashi and Giorgos Giakoumakis.

Crossing was another victim of the wing play quality paucity. But also, Rodgers' preference was for a variety of crossing styles, heights and depts. This did not play into the sweet spot of Kyogo in particular.

 

Prima facie, the volume and accuracy of crossing is on par with Postecoglou’s season two, and superior to any season before. Did the deliveries - whether crosses or passes - hit the spot?

 

Celtic had more touches of the ball in the opposition box than any season since records began (admittedly, only six seasons). The number of passes that were completed into the danger zone central to the goal and within the penalty area were slightly below the previous two seasons, however. But not dramatically so.

This is where we need to be very clear to differentiate between volume and quality. A case can be made that as regards the wingers:

  • They received copious ball;
  • They completed a high proportion of crosses;
  • They received the ball in the box often; and
  • Passes and crosses landed in the danger zone.

All good, right? Yes, but quality can be measured by the average expected assist value of the chances created.

 

The average xA provided was 0.144, below the levels that Postecoglou’s creative players were providing. But higher than every other season recorded including Neil Lennon’s talented 2019-20 squad. The margins are tiny, aren’t they?

Summary

That last point is one I want you to keep in your head. On podcasts and paper, we talk about cohesion and lack of. These are black-and-white terms implying “good” and “bad” outcomes. Reality is measured in decimal places worth of differences. Footballing effectiveness is fragile and imperfect. You get more cohesive by degrees, in factions.

Celtic are not as cohesive a creative force as they were under Postecoglou. I’d attribute that mainly to personnel and a portion to familiarity with demands. The utilisation of Kyogo is probably an article in itself. The Champions are not far away from Postecoglou's levels of cohesion, however. More reliable line breakers in midfield, better quality delivery from wide areas, and more ball carriers throughout the team will dramatically turn the perception dial by subtly altering the underlying numbers.

Again, the theme is, Rodgers builds from a reasonable foundation.