Introducing 'Efficient Ball Progression' aka the 'Reo Hatate Paradox'

How exciting!

The problem (or one of many) I’ve been wrestling with is, let’s call it the Reo Hatate Paradox. That is, how do we measure a player who is a highly creative passer, but tends to turn over the ball frequently? I can plot pack passes and turnovers - a good view.

But I wondered if there was a composite metric that would “balance” the risk and reward aspects of passing.

My proposal is (working title) Efficient Ball Progression (EBP). Suggestions welcome!

EBP is calculated by taking the overall pack passing score (measures the extent to which players bypass opponents with forward passes) and dividing that by the number of times the player is dispossessed through challenges added to their volume of misplaced passes.

In short (all values per 90 minutes):

EBP =

The higher the score, the greater the pack passing achieved despite turnovers and dispossessions.

Let’s test it per position to see if the data matches the eye test.

Goalkeepers

Custodians tend to have low volumes of pack passes and will have more misplaced passes the longer they kick (think Jordan Pickford than the average Celtic ‘keeper).

Joe Hart is to be commended for the extent to which he developed his kicking game so late into his career. He has the three highest EBP’s rates in the sample.

As may be seen with the outfield positions, I suspect there is a “team style” dynamic going on here. Neil Lennon did not expect his goalkeepers to be efficient ball progressors whilst Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rodgers demanded it.

We now have a benchmark to test the next custodian – if we ever get one!

Full Backs

Note, again, the rising peaks towards the more recent seasons. Better ball progressing full backs, or greater tactical emphasis on working the ball through the lines?

Where the eye test is met is that some of the least storied full-backs score very poorly by this metric – Jeremy Toljan, Diego Laxalt, and Moritz Bauer in particular. And the great Jeremie Frimpong trade-off: world-class ball carrier at feet; not so much progressive passing.

Also pleasing is that this metric highlights Mikael Lustig, the furthest to the right of the chart. He was an excellent long passer from the back which, as the anti-Frimpong, compensated for a relative lack of ball-carrying athleticism.

In recent times when full backs have been encouraged to break lines rather than launch it into the channels, this metric highlights Alistair Johnston as an efficient ball progressor.

Greg Taylor’s numbers seem to reflect the manager’s style at the time. He has lower EBP’s under Lennon and they rise under Postecoglou.

Centre Backs

We again see an overall rise in values from 2021-22 season onwards as Postecoglou’s highly specific playing style took root.

Before that, the sad case of Filip Benkovic is highlighted. A talented player who scores highly across a range of defensive metrics but whose career post-Celtic has not progressed as much as his potential would have suggested.

What I am pleased about is how this metric showcases Cameron Carter-Vickers. He has neither the highest volume of overall passes nor the most pack passes. Yet, because EBP is a ratio, it is volume neutral, and his overall efficiency is highlighted. He rarely gives the ball away.

Carl Starfelt’s improvement from 2021-22 to 2022-23 is also noteworthy. Last season, Liam Scales would top the pack passing league, but with EBP where we factor in turnovers, his overall score is lower than the Swede and the American.

Low scores are from Kristoffer Ajer – see Frimpong above – an effective ball carrier but not so good passing. Other low scores are from Jack Hendry and Shane Duffy, two of the poorer fits for Celtic of recent times.

Centre Midfield

This view accommodates holding midfielders, box-to-box midfielders and number 10s. This will account for some of the differences.

Unlike the defensive positions, the midfielder view seems agnostic of the manager and preferred playing style. Peaks and troughs are distributed across the seasons.

Are we, therefore, measuring ball progression talent?

Maybe, but I suspect it comes back to my original observation regarding the different central midfielder roles.

The highest values are from the deep-lying playmakers, Nir Bitton and Callum McGregor. The tempo setters, our mini Toni Kroos’s!

The lower values are the number 10s who generally receive the ball under more pressure, are attempting more difficult passes and therefore generate lower EBP’s. The likes of Tom Rogic and David Turnbull should probably be carved out of this view.

Coming back to the original motivation for the metric, the enigmatic Hatate. Oddly, his highest EBP was last season. I think we’d all agree that wasn’t the most productive of his two-and-a-half campaigns. I would posit that last season given his early season injury woes, he rarely played in the more difficult Champions League matches and this has served to bump up his averages.

But, overall, Hatate scores well by this metric and is at least in line with peers.

What continues to concern me given current transfer rumblings, is the poor EBP in relative terms, of Paolo Bernardo. His lack of forward passes drives this. I’d need to see significant development in this key area.

Of the “8’s”, Aaron Mooy peaks slightly above his peers and that pass efficiency and quality of decision making is sorely missed.

In future, when using this metric, I will split it into the different midfield “jobs” both for ease of viewing and to allow fairer comparisons.

Wingers

What you will see here is a) the volume of scores decreasing further as creative passing gets harder further up the pitch and b) again that there seems to be no manager-specific pattern and therefore this may be player ability over tactics.

The outlier is the maligned Sead Haksabanovic, of a questionable temperament.

I think this is a square-peg problem. Given the combination of his lack of pace but clear eye for a pass, I was convinced he was a “10” trapped in a winger's body.

We’ll never know!

James Forrest scores well by EBP. Forrest is a relatively safe passer which sounds like faint praise. I could also say he “looks after the ball” and he is a good decision-maker regarding his final third passing. He may not take enough risks for some managers, e.g. Postecoglou.

Daizen Maeda scores low by this metric. He provides relatively good quality chances mainly from wide cutbacks having got in behind defences. His contribution to breaking down lines of defence from deeper is virtually non-existent, however.

Nicolas Kuhn scores quite well by this metric but none of the current cohorts match Jota. Yet more evidence of the paucity of current wing play.

Strikers

The numbers get lower still with the strikers.

Two slightly surprising standouts.

Kyogo Furuhashi rarely breaks double figures for completed passes never mind pack passes.

However, the Japanese striker is a byword for efficiency. Both in his striking and in the rate with which he provides line-breaking passes relative to losing possession.

To an even greater extent than Odsonne Edouard whom I have characterised in the past as being an elite “10” and “9” at Europa League level.

The next highest is Leigh Griffiths. He was very much a risk taker but often dropped wide and deep and was capable of line-breaking passes. My recollection was of prodigious ball wastage but by this metric, he scores well.

Albian Ajeti scored highly by most traditional striker metrics, but his lack of link-up play is highlighted here.

Adam Idah is not included as he did not pass the 900-minute threshold.

Summary

Overall, I am happy with this metric. It helps provide insight.

Caveats are that for the defensive players manager tactics and style impact attribution highly but with Benkovic and Carter-Vickers scoring highly, it’s effective in describing the quality centre back distributors.

The midfield view needs to be broken up into different roles. However, this view identifies the “metronomes” but seems to identify chance quality creators less effectively.

Some of the Kyogo magic is revealed but given the low volume of striker pack passing involvement, it’s adding little to our understanding of that part of the team.

Given players like Lustig, Johnston, Carter-Vickers, Bitton and McGregor score well, this aligns with the eye test.

So, another metric to keep updated in the new season! And report back on, of course.