The statistical reasons why Celtic beat Hibs at Easter Road

The visitors started quickly and were ahead after four minutes through Nicolas Kuhn, after James Forrest pounced on a save from the Hibs goalkeeper, squaring a cross to the Germany winger to make it two goals in two games for the former Rapid Vienna player. The scorer would then turn the provider, as Kuhn found his captain in space 25 yards from goal, with Callum McGregor unleashing an unstoppable strike that left the whole stadium in awe. Despite threatening their hosts in both halves, the game finished 2-0 in favour of Rodgers’ side, as they kept another clean sheet to consolidate their perfect start to the league campaign.

Here, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay brings you a match report unlike any other, using StatsBomb analytics and data to paint a clear picture concerning what happened at Easter Road…

Key stats and race chart

As was the case last weekend on Flag Day versus Kilmarnock, Celtic dominated proceedings for the second game running. With 74 per cent possession, 782 attempted passes and 87 per cent pass completion, the visitors dictated the vast majority of events in the capital. Accumulating an xG of 2.48, they underachieved slightly in this metric, with some big chances failing to be capitalised on – pardon the pun.

Judging by the race chart above, Celtic’s domination in front of goal was apparent in the eyes of xG. Indeed, the chances created indicated a 96 per cent chance of winning the contest, with a draw the next most likely scenario at just three per cent. The home side had a one per cent chance of winning this game – highlighting Celtic’s superiority over the Edinburgh club.

Formation and passing

As usual, Celtic lined up in their 4-3-3 formation at Easter Road on Sunday afternoon. It was an unchanged side from the one that beat Kilmarnock so convincingly just seven days prior, as Kasper Schmeichel maintained his place in goals as Celtic’s number one. Cameron Carter-Vickers started alongside Liam Scales in defence, with Greg Taylor and Alistair Johnston occupying the full-back slots respectively. McGregor lined up with Reo Hatate and Matt O’Riley, who have both been linked with moves away this summer, whilst Kyogo started up front with Forrest and Kuhn on either side respectively.

Celtic’s passing network displays where Celtic had the most joy concerning on-ball value (OBV). In this game, it is clear that most of Celtic’s effective and meaningful movement came on the left-hand side, with Scales, Taylor and especially Forrest scoring well in this metric. Carter-Vickers had a good game on the right, too. A reminder that this is just one statistical measure and that Kuhn had arguably the best game of his Celtic career thus far despite his poor radar.

Statistically, Forrest had the highest OBV of both teams with 0.35 for just 26 passes – a good showing from the veteran winger. Taylor, Carter-Vickers and Scales also performed well in brute numbers for this area of analysis.

Taking a look at key passes, it is a surprise to see O’Riley not featured on this chart as one of the top performers. That title went to Taylor, who had four, whilst Kuhn had two, including an assist. Paulo Bernardo, Daizen Maeda and Mikey Johnston – all substitutes – each had one to their name.

Shooting

Before we get onto the main event concerning goalscoring in this match, let’s take a look at the highest xG-scoring chance of the game, which fell to yesterday’s star man Kuhn. Following Forrest’s low cross to the former Ajax and Bayern Munich youth player, Kuhn tapped the ball into the back of the net with ease, uncontested and with acres of space.

A huge 0.88 in xG – more than a penalty, the PSxG rose to 1.00 following the contact with Kuhn’s boot, making it the highest-scoring opportunity by some distance.

Unfortunately, however, Kuhn’s well-made goal has been overshadowed by the brilliance of McGregor’s thunderbolt, which occurred just 15 minutes later. Following a nice pick-out by the first goalscorer, the captain ran onto the ball, unmarked 25 yards from goal. With no hesitation, the former Scotland international unleashed an unstoppable drive, leaving Josef Bursik in the Hibs goal with no chance of getting anywhere near his effort.

A low 0.03 xG originally due to the distance from the goal and the goalkeeper’s starting position, it rose to 0.23 in PSxG. In simple terms, McGregor made this difficult chance look very easy to put away. A ‘Goal of the Season’ contender in week two – not bad for the 31-year-old.

Managing 19 shots with seven on target, it was a bit of a wasteful day concerning putting away chances. Indeed, the opposition blocked many of Celtic’s chances, who kept the scoreline to two goals despite facing a barrage of chances, especially in the first 45 minutes. Johnston came close at the end, with the keeper colliding with him following the chance.

Concerning shooting numbers, O’Riley topped this one with five, whilst Kuhn and Kyogo had four. Johnston and McGregor had two, with the latter contributing the game's highlight through his wonder goal.

Pressing and defending

Like last week, the opposition had more pressures in this game, which is to be expected due to their lack of possession in the contest. Indeed, they had over double the amount that Rodgers’ side had at a differential of 235-112 in favour of Hibs. They regained the ball off of pressures more times than Celtic, too, with 39-19 the difference between the two sides. Johnston had the most pressures for Celtic with 17, as well as the most counterpressures with a total of eight.

Defensively, Carter-Vickers had the most tackles and interceptions combined with five, whilst Taylor had four. Scales won six aerial duels in total, whilst his centre-back partner had four to his name in proceedings