Why Celtic should sign Mateusz Bogusz to replace Matt O'Riley

The 23-year-old Pole is believed to be one option the club is considering as they look to offset the loss of Matt O’Riley to Brighton. Formerly with Leeds United, Bogusz is enjoying a breakout season for LAFC, with a fee over £8m reportedly being sought by the MLS side for his services.

This scouting report will take a closer look at the former Polish youth international, analysing his data and playing style to assess what he would bring to Celtic, should a move materialise before the transfer window closes. 

Player profile

Bogusz came through the ranks at Polish side Ruch Chorzow before being quickly identified and picked up by Leeds United, aged 17. 

Part of Marcelo Bielsa’s squad for Leeds’ pre-season tour to Australia ahead of the 2019/20 season, Bogusz made his debut in an EFL Cup match in August. Despite being in and around the first team, further opportunities were limited during the pandemic-interrupted campaign. 

He did sign a new three-year deal at Elland Road in August 2020 but was then loaned to Logrones in the Spanish second tier. The Poland under-21 cap then spent the following two campaigns in the same division with Ibiza before his permanent move to LA ahead of the 2023 MLS campaign. 

A bit-part player in his first year, Bogusz has enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024 for high-flying LAFC, scoring 13 and laying on five more in 24 MLS appearances. He also has four goals and two assists to his name in the League Cups and US Open campaigns. Capped from under-15 level through to under-21s, Bogusz is said to be close to a full international call-up due to his impressive club form. 

Describing his natural position as an attacking midfielder, Bogusz has played most of his MLS minutes this year (61 per cent) at centre-forward in LAFC’s favoured 3-4-3 formation. He has not been deployed as an out-and-out striker in this system though with his role more of a ‘false nine’.

Playing some minutes out wide on the right too (18 per cent), he has also been deployed deeper as a number eight in their second most used set-up, a 4-3-3 (13 per cent). In terms of Bogusz’s physical attributes, he stands around 5’9” and has an athletic build with quite a broad frame. 

Data analysis

The chart below can start to build a clearer picture of Bogusz’s playing style. Using Wyscout per-90 data converted into percentile ranks, the chart compares him to other players (minimum 1,000 minutes played) in the position he has played most in this year for LAFC in MLS, centre-forward. The chart is split into three sections and covers several key attacking, possession and defending metrics.

Looking at his attacking section first, we can see Bogusz’s 13 MLS goals, all of which have been non-penalty goals, works out at 0.58 non-penalty goals per 90. He is clearly having a hot streak in front of goal with this number a good bit above his expected goals of 0.28 per 90. 

Some of that ‘overperformance’ can be explained in the next two metrics. Bogusz takes on a high volume of shots (2.74 per 90) but ranks in the bottom percentile for his xG per shot. As will be seen in greater detail later on, this is down to Bogusz taking on a fairly high number of shots from distance which will of course be of lesser xG value. 

Elsewhere in his attacking section, Bogusz shows up strongly in the ball-carrying metrics. He attempts 3.15 dribbles per 90 and boasts a reasonable success rate (50.56 per cent), which ranks above the 50th percentile compared to other MLS centre-forwards. His 1.72 progressive runs per 90 also comes in just outside the top quartile. 

Bogusz’s possession section stands out most in his percentile rank chart. This is likely inflated somewhat by some minutes as a midfielder, as well as his role as a ‘false 9’, compared to the maybe more ‘traditional’ centre-forwards in the dataset. Bogusz has been heavily involved in possession though, and that’s despite LAFC not being a possession-dominant side – they have averaged 47.88 per cent possession in MLS this year, the ninth-lowest out of the 29 teams in the competition. 

The Pole’s high accuracy ranks for short/medium passes (86.12 per cent) and progressive passes (80.65 per cent) are particularly impressive and perhaps an encouraging sign if, as expected, he is seen as a ‘replacement’ for O’Riley in one of the two advanced central midfielders in Celtic’s three-man midfield.  Bogusz’s chance creation numbers are decent too. His xA per 90 (0.13 per 90) ranks in the 76th percentile while his 0.41 key passes per 90 shows up well in this particular dataset. 

The defensive section shows Bogusz is more than willing out of possession. His defensive duels (4.75 per 90) rank in the 90th percentile. Again, this may be inflated by his deeper roles compared to others while his win rate is not great, just over the bottom quartile mark (48.28 per cent). 

Aerial duels look like an area where Bogusz is not the strongest either. Involved in 1.07 per 90, his 26.92 per cent win rate only ranks in the 20th percentile. He also averages 1.34 PAdj interceptions per 90, one of the lowest averages versus other MLS centre-forwards. 

Goal threat

Mapping his shots over the last calendar year, the below graphic from Wyscout gives greater insight into Bogusz’s goal threat. As can be seen, much of Bogusz’s ‘overperformance’ in terms of his goal output is a result of those shots at longer distances. He has had almost just as many shots outside the box as he has inside (57 in and 56 out), scoring six goals from outside the box in the last year from an xG of just 2.35. His two goals from direct free-kicks, from an xG worth of 0.45 also play a part here.

Taking on most of his shots with his stronger right, many of his efforts from outside the box are concentrated in the left half-space area. Bogusz has not wholly relied on potentially speculative efforts from distance for his goals though. He has been a consistent finisher in the box, scoring just over what he would be ‘expected’ to here, 10 from an xG of 8.97. 

Looking at his shot locations overall, he certainly could be a bit more selective with where he takes some of these on. However, there is no doubt that he is more than capable of finding the net from range. A clean striker of the ball, Bogusz can generate a lot of power and movement on his strikes, often with little backlift. His strike against Minnesota United at the end of May is a prime example of this. 

As his shot map showed, a significant number of Bogusz’s attempts at goal come from that left half-space area, just outside the box. Whether playing in a forward position or midfield, Bogusz will often look to drift into these areas, between opposition lines, to open up the target on his stronger right foot. An example of this, shown below, was his curling effort that found the top corner against Seattle Sounders at the start of the current MLS campaign.  

There are a few occasions he opts for too much power which can lead to some wayward efforts when he loses control of the strike. He could perhaps opt for more placed finishes at times. His most recent goal against Colorado Rapids in the Leagues Cup did show that he is capable of this too though.

Again, in that favoured position of just outside the box on the left side, Bogusz opted for a controlled finish that he was able to place perfectly in the bottom right corner.

As mentioned, Bogusz also offers a goal threat from direct free-kicks too with two to his name this year. He demonstrates fine technical ability from dead-balls, the below from against Portland Timbers is an excellent example of this. 

Here, despite the ball being placed right on the edge of the box, Bogusz was still able to generate enough movement on the ball to get it up and over the wall and into the net. 

Chance creation

A potent goal threat in this year’s MLS, Bogusz has also provided for others too. In total, Bogusz has produced 31 shot assists for his teammates in the last calendar year, mapped below, which were worth a total xA of 4.68. This works out a pretty impressive average quality of chance provided of 0.15 xA per shot assist.

As his shot assist map shows, some of these have come from corner kicks with Bogusz, as just highlighted, an accomplished dead-ball striker. His deliveries are pacey and he gets a lot of movement on the ball in these scenarios too. One good example of this was his assist for Kei Kamara in the ‘El Trafico’ derby.

As with the example that highlighted his prowess from direct free-kicks, Bogusz was able to generate a lot of movement on the ball. Starting high, making it difficult for the Galaxy goalkeeper to come, he dropped the ball right onto Kamara’s head just outside the six-yard box for the striker to power home the header. 

Bogusz does not rely solely on dead-ball scenarios for his chance creation. As previously mentioned, he likes to drop in those half-spaces, especially on the left, to get on the ball. Getting shots away in these areas is something he definitely looks to do but he also demonstrates good decision-making in these areas to provide for others too. An example of this is shown below.

Here, after he cut in from the left channel on his right during a transition, rather than opt for goal, with three defenders in front of him, he slid a nicely weighted pass out to the right for Cristian Olivera to run onto and finish. 

Bogusz showcases nice vision in deeper areas too when deployed there and, as his shot assists graphic also shows, he is capable of longer rage passes from these positions that can present opportunities for his teammates. One example of this was an assist away at St Louis City.

Here, when being used as a central midfielder in their 4-3-3, Bogusz dropped to receive short from his centre-back before quickly turning and getting his head up. Spotting the run of forward Denis Bouanga, he clipped the ball over the backline to send Bouanga through to finish. Bogusz shows signs of being able to play through, as well as over the top when creating against more set defences though, something he would be up against nine times out of ten if he does join Celtic, as the next example shows. 

Dropping to receive on the half-turn, this time from LAFC’s number six Ilie Sanchez, Bogusz played a defence-splitting pass through the centre of the pitch with his weaker left. Perfectly weighted, Bouanga was again the beneficiary and able to finish past the Dallas FC goalkeeper in the subsequent 1v1 situation. 

Ball-carrying 

Bogusz’s ball-carrying attributes showed through in his earlier data analysis section with the below Wyscout graphic giving further insight into this part of his game.

Showing all his dribbles in the final third highlights just how effective Bogusz has been with his ball-carrying for LAFC with possession retained 67.2 per cent from his 116 dribbles in the last calendar year. This has directly led to 31 shots, worth an xG of 2.24, and three goals. Consistent with his shot map, most of these have come in those left channel/half-space areas. 

As mentioned previously, LAFC are not a possession-dominant team with much of their success this season coming from their threat in transition. Bogusz, and his impressive ball-carrying attributes have been central to this.  He demonstrates an ability to carry the ball at pace over distances. Quick and agile, he also has the upper body strength to deal with contact and remain in control of the ball. The best example this year was his goal away at Orlando City in June. 

Here, after picking up a loose ball, Bogusz exchanged passes with Bouanga before being played in. He did have a yard or two on the recovering defenders but the former Leeds prospect went on to leave them in his wake, driving to the angle of the six-yard box before blasting past the Orlando goalkeeper at his near post. 

This ability to exploit space is particularly valuable, especially in scenarios like the one just described. While he would have fewer opportunities to use this skill in domestic games with Celtic, where opponents often deploy low blocks, it would be highly effective in European competitions. Whether it's capitalising on space during transitions like that or carrying the ball to relieve pressure, Bogusz’s powerful running, and his ability to retain possession more often than not, would be a valuable asset on that stage.

Build-up 

Bogusz’s possession section certainly stood out in his percentile rank chart earlier. Although there is some context to those earlier numbers, as mentioned, the below graphic can shed some further light on Bogusz’s tendencies on the ball.

It again highlights generally high passing accuracy with Bogusz posting high xGChain (0.7 per 90) and xGBuildup (0.3 per 90) values. xGChain is a metric that assigns the xG value of a shot to every player that made any action in the attack that led to the shot while xGBuildup excludes the xG and xA of the shot to evaluate player contributions in deeper-lying playmaking.

The next graphic shows Bogusz’s ball progression tendencies. As already seen in his percentile rank chart too, Bogusz’s overall progressive pass accuracy comes through strongly. The distance of these passes he is not as accurate at is the shortest one, 0-20m, which may raise a bit of a question mark, in terms of how effective he would be progressing the ball through shorter passes in build-up phases. 

However, as already seen in other parts of his game assessed, Bogusz has a high level of technical ability. He has excellent close control and is generally clean in possession. He is not quite as comfortable on his left though, and perhaps a bit too reliant on his stronger right at times.  He did of course rank well for short/medium passes earlier too, so, although perhaps not quite at O’Riley levels, Bogusz appears more than capable of contributing effectively in the build-up. 

Off-the-ball 

Bogusz’s data indicated a player who was pretty willing, but perhaps not the most effective when it came to his work off the ball.

The above graphic from Wyscout offers some further detail about his work off-the-ball, specifically in the final third. Bogusz has made a reasonable amount of recoveries in the last year in MLS (15.3 per 90). He has also made 0.42 dangerous recoveries per 90.  These numbers stack up ok when compared to others in MLS but he is not a standout here so, given the importance Brendan Rodgers places on pressing and counterpressing, this may be one part of Bogusz’s game he still needs to develop somewhat. 

Watching him off the ball, he could be somewhat ‘smarter, picking his time when and where to press more efficiently. He would likely need to show a bit more aggression when it comes to his work off-the-ball too, especially in the more competitive surroundings of the SPFL Premiership compared to MLS. As already highlighted, despite having an athletic build and decent frame, he is not the strongest in the air. 

His attributes off-the-ball were a sometimes underrated aspect of O’Riley’s game, and it is of course very difficult to find a player in Celtic’s budget that ticks all these boxes, but there is no doubt defensively is where Bogusz still has a bit of room for improvement. 

Conclusion

Mateus Bogusz is a promising target for Celtic, offering a multifaceted skill set that could bolster not only the midfield area but also attacking positions.  There may be a few areas where there are question marks, how he would transition from MLS to the more intense environment of Scottish football being the biggest one. 

However, although not a natural replacement for O’Riley as such, Bogusz would definitely bring some valuable attributes to that area of the park. He would also have utility as an inside forward coming in from the left and as a centre-forward who can link play too, both of which are roles Rodgers is keen for players in those positions to play. 

His breakout season in MLS, marked by impressive goal-scoring exploits and decent creative contributions, coupled with his proficiency in dead-ball situations and powerful ball-carrying, points to Bogusz being a versatile asset that could make a significant impact at Celtic Park.