Celtic tactical and data match report against Hearts

xG race chart

Hearts started the match faster than Celtic and this is borne out by the xG race chart. It also speaks to how little Celtic managed to create in the first half. They enjoyed 75% of the total possession for the opening 45 but it was only near the break that they finally moved above 0.5 cumulative xG. Postecoglou’s men were knocking at the door, but weakly.

The second half was an improvement. As well as scoring thanks to Anthony Ralston, Celtic ended the match with the higher cumulative xG (1.53 vs 1.28) despite Hearts grabbing a winner through John Souttar.

It is worth noting that, based on the chances created, Celtic would have avoided defeat at Tynecastle on Saturday 72% of the time.

Shot maps

Celtic slightly underperformed with one goal from an xG of 1.53 while Hearts – like in last year’s Scottish Cup final goal-fest – overperformed by netting twice with an xG of 1.42.

Postecoglou’s side took around half their shots from outside the box, all of which were either blocked or had a low xG value.

Another goal conceded from a set-piece highlights an ongoing concern for Celtic as Souttar’s winner was 0.18 xG. Gary Mackay-Steven’s opener was 0.62, though the defending in the build-up to the chance itself is no doubt of more concern than the goal. Ralston’s strike was 0.33 xG.

Average position and passing maps

A common criticism of Celtic’s performance on Saturday is that they appeared to pass the ball about the back too often without penetrating the Hearts lines. That would seem to be evidenced by the passing networks. Remember: the thicker the line, the more passes between the players, so Carl Starfelt and Nir Bitton certainly got to know one another well in the Swede’s first match with a game-high 71 passes played between the two of them.

For the second match in a row, the play was focused largely on Celtic’s left flank. Michael Smith and Josh Ginnelly were often high up the park and combined well to threaten Greg Taylor and James Forrest.

Despite a lot of the play taking place on the opposite flank, the passing lines between David Turnbull and Liel Abada suggest the two struggled to link up with one another in the same manner as Turnbull did with Forrest on the left.

In terms of danger men, both sides possessed plenty, given the warmer the colour in the chart the more involved the player. What is interesting to note is that, even though they did not have much of the ball overall, the Hearts players are almost all warmer colours. This suggests they used what little possession they had well, particularly down the right with Souttar, Smith and Ginnelly.

Pressure maps

The match was played much more intensely on the flanks, which is unsurprising given Hearts’ emphasis on wing-backs and the presence of Gary Mackay-Steven and Ginnelly on either side of Liam Boyce.

Player data

Two players stand out here for Celtic in attack: Turnbull and Odsonne Edouard. Both have come in for a bit of stick recently but Turnbull was top of the pile for shots (four), third for xG per shot (0.29) and joint top for key passes (three).

Edouard was restricted to low-quality shots but did play three key passes and provide an xG assist figure of 0.83, helped by both his lay-off for Ralston’s goal and his wonderful touch to play Forrest through near the end.

Special mention goes to Greg Taylor’s two key passes – one of which was a lovely dinked ball to send Callum McGregor in on goal in the first half and the other an assist-that-should-have-been when Abada’s strike was wrongly disallowed for offside.

Defensively, Starfelt marked his debut with solid raw numbers. He notched four tackles, four interceptions and 11 clearances while making one foul. He also won 67% of his aerial battles. Taylor topped the charts for combined tackles and interceptions with nine, while Ismaila Soro committed the most fouls (five).