Ange Postecoglou has been left short of viable midfield options and has three clear choices - James Dailey

I wrote recently about Callum McGregor’s role as the single pivot in Ange Postecoglou’s system, and the potential relative benefit of playing David Turnbull on the left side of central midfield.

However, given the composition of options and the lack of signing an attacking or box-to-box midfielder in the summer transfer window, I am now going to examine whether shifting McGregor to a box-to-box role to make room for either Ismaila Soro or James McCarthy would make sense.

This question is of particular interest as Celtic head into Thursday’s away game at Real Betis, who will be the highest-ranked club Celtic have faced so far this season in various quantitative models such as 538’s Soccer Power Index.

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Given the relative quality of the opponent and the fact a midfield three of McGregor, Turnbull, and Rogic struggled in the qualifying away fixture versus AZ Alkmaar, might Postecoglou consider shuffling his deck?

To examine the relative positives and negatives of a theoretical shuffle, I have taken a look at the attacking and creative output of the three midfielders using StatsBomb metrics for league games playing for Celtic since the start of the 2018-2019 season.

When considering attacking output, I am focused upon non-penalty xG from open play for each player. Here are shot maps for all three players over the period, with the accompanying xG metrics:

My premise is to compare the shooting skill level of each within the context of the quality of chances. To do so, let’s add their post-shot xG over the same period:

What we can see from comparing the xG and post-shot xG for each is McGregor has not been a very good shooter. His xG per shot from open play of just 0.092 was the highest of the three, but his total xG of 13.77 was higher than his post-shot xG of 12.58. This suggests he’s gotten into good positions overall, but not been as good of a finisher. In contrast, both Turnbull and Rogic had post-shot xG above their xG.

Next, I’ve broken down their data further into shots from within 18 yards and those beyond 18 yards. Here are the shot maps for xG first, then post-shot xG:

Given the time period covered, we can see the limited number of shots the players have taken within 18 yards. McGregor’s post-shot xG was very close to his xG, with both Turnbull and Rogic again having higher post-shot xG. Finally, let’s look at shots outside of 18 yards:

Viewing the metrics this way suggests a potential skill for Turnbull relative to shooting from distance. However, even though his post-shot xG was higher than his xG, the post-shot xG per shot from open play was just 0.123. Football is not the NBA and ‘extra credit’ is not granted for long-range shots.  

We can also see the disparity in shot volumes, with all three taking a much larger volume of lower-quality shots from distance, with McGregor a particular offender in this regard. His shot selection and quality of finishing has been lacking when not within 18 yards. Despite not showing a particular skill at shooting from distance, McGregor has taken over 74 per cent of his shots from over 18 yards. Turnbull’s high volume at over 78 per cent of shots from distance was at least supported by what may be an above average skill, while Rogic had the lowest proportion at just under 73 per cent.

This table switches the topic from shooting to chance creation for team-mates, with Rogic showing his standout value. While his volume of key passes from open play has been comparable, the average quality of chances he has created for team-mates has been materially higher. On the flip side, much of McGregor’s minutes over the time period covered were in a dual pivot, whereas Rogic and Turnbull have played significant minutes in the number 10 role.

None of the three are what many may consider natural defenders, but is it reasonable to play them together? This radar compares defensive and pressing metrics in league games for Turnbull and Rogic so far this season in Postecoglou’s system:

On a possession-adjusted basis, both have been active pressing opponents, with Rogic more aggressive in counter-pressing. However, his counter-press regain and foul metrics indicate he has not been very effective in the role. In addition, neither of them have been effective in defending against dribblers.

What is my conclusion after considering all of these metrics? The most obvious issue to me was the club’s error in making James McCarthy and Liam Shaw the midfielders brought in during the transfer window, rather than a young, European-level box-to-box midfielder. 

Playing either McCarthy or Soro in the midfield would likely push McGregor forward into a role for which his attacking and creative output is probably lacking, while forcing Turnbull back to the right side. Conversely, retaining McGregor as the sole pivot would likely mean a vulnerable midfield defensively as well as one which is ineffective in pressing but would potentially offer more creativity.

READ MORE: Three J League midfielders Celtic boss Ange Postecoglou could target in January to help squad depth issue

A third option may be attractive for Postecoglou heading into Thursday and against higher-quality opponents at least until the January transfer window: play a dual pivot with Turnbull as the number 10. Pairing McGregor with either Soro or McCarthy could offer more defensive solidity while allowing Turnbull the opportunity to try to leverage his shooting skills in the number 10 role.

Regardless of which iteration Postecoglou decides to go with, significant competitive deficiencies are likely to remain.

Neither Soro nor McCarthy appear particularly well-suited for Postecoglou’s preferred one or two touch rapid build-up passing, while neither Turnbull nor Rogic appear well-suited for his preferred high press. None have the combination of size and pace which are more common within European competition.

It will be fascinating to see how Postecoglou decides to play the midfield hand he has been dealt, and how that translates into performance levels and results in the coming weeks.