WHEN Ferencvaros knocked Celtic out of the Champions League qualifiers in the second round last August, it essentially signalled the beginning of an incredible nosedive at the club that became a season-long malaise.
The club's earliest CL exit since 2005 - when Artmedia Bratislava shocked Gordon Strachan's side - hammered home the reality that Celtic are currently a Europa League-level club continually failing in attempts to dine at the top table of European club football.
Famed as a lions' den for years, and for good reason, Celtic Park has recently been as intimidating as a four-year-old's living room fortress of bed sheets and boxes.
However, in the Europa League group stage Celtic have tallied up a number of impressive victories in recent seasons against Leipzig, Lazio and Lille, who went on to spectacularly win Ligue 1 in the same season.
Those victories were unexpected but today's match against Ferencvaros can't be aligned on the same level and anything other than a victory means Celtic can probably forget about reaching the knockout stage of the competition. It makes the 'race' for third place and consignment to the Europa Conference League a stern battle for the second half of the group stage.
Ferencvaros, after defeats to Bayer Leverkusen and Real Betis, face the same scenario but, unlike Celtic, they approach the game after a league defeat against Zalaegerszegi. Also unlike Celtic, they were top of the table before the loss and are just a point from the summit.
They're now under the leadership of former Borussia Dortmund and FC Koln manager Peter Stoger after Sergei Rebrov, who was in charge for their win in Parkhead last August, moved on to Al Ain in Abu Dhabi.
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Stoger's side are a goal threat with 13 shots on goal per game, nearly 2 xG on average, and nearly 2.5 actual goals as a medium so far this term - although that's boosted by a 9-0 win against third-tier FC Hatvan in the cup. For league duty only, and discounting the European matches, their xG is 2.28. They have 15 shots on goal per game and are in possession of the ball for almost 60 per cent of its time in play.
Their xG is just shy of Celtic's Premiership tally and the Hoops average only a few more shots on goal per game with 18 but dominate possession significantly more at nearly 70 per cent. Again, it has to be recognised Celtic's xG stats are boosted nicely by those 6-0 wins against Dundee and St Mirren at the start of the season.
Ferencvaros' usual front three of Myrto Uzini on the right, Tokmac Nguen (who scored at Parkhead last season) on the other side and new signing Ryan Mmaee (pronounced like the month) through the middle, is clicking.
The latter, according to Celtic supporter and hungarianfootball.com writer Kevin McCluskie, has really hit the ground running.
"He signed from AEL Limassol in the summer and has scored 11 goals in 17 games so far," McCluskie says. "He's a lively centre forward with great movement and likes to drift out into the left channel as well which creates space for Tokmac to come in, so they work really well together.
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"I've also been impressed by Aissa Laidouni, who's a box-to-box midfielder. If I were to compare him to a Celtic player I'd use Stan Petrov as the example. He's more offensive than defensive but gets up and down the midfield."
From watching their concessions on Wyscout, it's clear to see Ferencvaros have a glaring issue: dealing with crosses from the wide area.
It's not necessarily the urgency of getting to the ball first but also what happens after that. Second and third-phase lapses have led to the ball ending up in their net whether it's due to ball-watching or slow reactions and six of the nine goals they've conceded in the last month have been from corners, open-play crosses or a byline cutback.
Sergei Rebrov's side were a more compact unit but Stoger has instructed his team to be more expansive and a large part of this ideology are the full-backs.
Domestically, they normally set up with four defenders but in the Europa League Stoger opts for three centre-backs and two wing-backs which, although it increases the difficulty of the opposition's task of breaking through the central areas, leaves plenty of space for wingers to exploit as Bayer Leverkusen and Real Betis both joyfully discovered.
This isn't a trend for which Wyscout is required to observe, says McCluskie: "I'm not surprised to hear that stat. The wing-backs push on in Europe and attack a lot more than they used to under Rebrov, even with a formation that has four defenders.
"It's a trademark of the team now, Stoger wants width from the full-backs and they leave a lot of space in the wider areas.
"It's a key problem and isn't helped by the absence of Igor Kharatin, a defensive midfielder they sold to Legia Warsaw in the summer because he used to drop back and help out in those areas.
"His replacements haven't managed to step up yet but the one who has looked most likely to do that is Mo Besic, who is cup-tied for tomorrow and that's a bonus for Celtic.
"They're going to Glasgow to try and win the game. They got a lot of confidence last season from beating Celtic and enjoyed their Champions League group stage, gave a few big boys close games and this season they knocked out Slavia Prague and gave Bayer Leverkusen a close call.
"They'll see Celtic as the weakest in the group and although they'll respect Celtic, they'll fully chase the three points.
"If Celtic play their game the way Postecoglou wants and expects, they have the quality to win it but they'll have to impose themselves on the game. It's more about that than Ferencvaros allowing Celtic to play.
"If Callum McGregor can be given the ball as often as possible to dictate the play then Celtic stand a chance because they're attack-minded with high wing-backs so it'll give space for Abada and Jota.
"Kyogo will pull their centre-backs around as well to allow the wide men to cut inside to receive passes as well and Celtic click in that regard, they stand a really good chance of winning the game."
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