TWENTY games into Ange Postecoglou's tenure and, if your perspective is the only stat that matters is the one in the top-left corner of your TV screen, then you might conclude the start of this era is not far short of disastrous.
Eschewing the deeply flawed "win percentage", it is preferable to use "points percentage" to assess a manager's performance.
This metric assumes every match is played for three points per win and one per draw and, therefore, unlike "win percentage", recognises a draw as a legitimate football match outcome.
Since Neil Lennon's first stint, the points percentage per Celtic manager is:
Based on points percentage, Postecoglou is on 58 which is only worsened by John Kennedy’s short caretaker role last season. Even the dour football under Ronny Deila saw 69 per cent and Lennon was sacked for 63 per cent last season. The high benchmark remains Lennon’s treble-winning 19/20 side (84 per cent) and Brendan Rodgers' invincibles (82 per cent).
Postecoglou is some way short of that, yet supporters are rapidly warming to the Aussie and his methods. Structure, cohesion and, crucially, results all improved markedly since the last international break.
But, as always, it is to the underlying performance data we must look to see the shoots of a new 'Age of Ange'.
Pass At Pace
The much-maligned Passing stats can assist us if used in conjunction with other data. Under Rodgers, Celtic became increasingly circumspect. Total completed passes trended upwards (535, 568, 578) over his tenure as the keep-ball approach dominated.
Postecoglou’s side matches the most pedantic of those seasons with an average of 576 however, pack passes (forward passes that take out at least one opponent – i.e. inherently more risky) are at a modern-day high of 84 per game. A Rodgers side was in the mid-50s and the highest recently was Lennon’s team last season on 85.
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Under Lennon, the mantra was "get it forward" no matter the context but, under Postecoglou, not only are Celtic exerting greater control and high possession, they are breaking lines as well.
In short, it is possession football with purpose – get it forward, but accurately.
Chance Quality
It is no secret Postecoglou has been exposed to and influenced by the City Group and a data-driven approach to performance measurement. Nowhere is this more obvious than when we look at chance quality.
While Guardiola’s Manchester City may weave intricate (and expensively assembled) patterns, ultimately the objective is to create a chance as central as possible, as near to goal as possible, and preferably on the ground; which makes perfect sense.
It is a curio of statistics that irrespective of style, form and players available, Celtic steadily create an average of 15 chances per match. As a sidebar, this may be explained by opposition quality being more important than differences in playing style. What varies is the quality of those chances.
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The average Expected Goal value of each chance created under Deila, Rodgers and Lennon was 0.13. Under Postecoglou that has risen to 0.15. That does not sound very worthwhile but over a 60-game season that would equate to 18 more goals. Now that is worth fighting for.
Unsurprisingly big chances – ones with high xG, think 1 v 1 on the keeper, or a free shot central near the six-yard box – are 2.45 per 90min compared to 1.4 average over the last seven seasons. In the Premiership alone, Celtic have created 21 big chances, 11 more than the next best (Hearts, Motherwell and Rangers on 10).
Celtic’s approach is to get as many crosses into the danger zone (the area central to the goal and out to the 18-yard line) as possible. Average attempted crosses have risen from a seven-year average of 16 up to 20. Passes into the danger zone have increased slightly from 6 to 6.75. What this highlights is Celtic still have a lot of improvement to make on the quality of crosses/passes into the box.
Instinctively, we have seen in recent games many crosses soar over Kyogo Furuhashi’s head and James Forrest, a very precise passer, will be welcomed back. Similarly, we know full-back quality is not where Celtic hope to be at this time. Oh, for the return of the Kieran Tierney cutback.
Pressing Aggression
Finally, there is the desire that Postecoglou’s Celtic will be winning the ball higher up the pitch.
There is less evidence for this. Opposition passes per defensive action were 4.33 last season and is actually higher at 4.58 this term. Especially in midfield, Celtic don’t yet have the type of players to be effective in this regard.
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In attack that is less true, especially with the whirlwind front pressing of Furuhashi. Almost single-handedly he has pushed Celtic’s final-third regains from an average of 1.75 per 90min to 2.35. Directionally, this will please the manager but there's still much to do in this area.
Summary
Despite overall results, there is real evidence Postecoglou’s stamp on the team is taking hold. Celtic play much quicker, affecting the same number of passes as under Rodgers but are much more dynamic and forward-thinking.
Chance creation has improved markedly in terms of quality, masked by the fact Celtic continue to underperform their xG return.
Defensively is where we know Celtic need to improve - but that is also from the front. Lacking the midfield energy to implement a consistently productive high press, this remains a work in progress but Furuhashi is the poster boy for the intensity the manager is looking for from his forward players.
Certainly, there are many more ups and downs are to come on the Postecoglou roller-coaster.
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