Ange Postecoglou and Celtic's 'short blanket' adjustment to control matches

The managerial adage, attributed in the UK to Rafa Benitez, that football is like a short blanket - if you cover your head then you uncover your feet and vice versa - may have been contemplated recently by the Australian coach as his Celtic team has moved from July’s slow start with Champions League qualification failure and defeat in the opening Premiership match to taking 30-plus shots and scoring six times twice in August to leaking four goals twice in European competition and often barely troubling opponents from open play in September and to now five wins and just two goals conceded in the first six matches of October. This month the blanket seems to be covering all of the bed - with the exception of Saturday's match against Livingston, of course.

In the first three league matches of October - against Aberdeen, Motherwell and St Johnstone - Celtic conceded non-penalty xG of just 0.31 per 90 minutes compared to their Premiership average for the season of 0.60 per 90. For context, and our first little tilt at perception, Celtic conceded an average non-penalty xG of 0.77 per 90 last season. 

This was despite conceding approximately the same amount of shots per match, about seven, during that stretch of three matches as they had done in the preceding seven league games this season. In addition, many of the Bhoys’ defensive activity metrics didn’t change in a way that often suggests more defensive focus; they pressed a couple of times less per match on average, tackled, fouled or pressured an opposition player within two seconds of receiving the ball slightly less frequently and allowed their opponents to make almost a pass more per defensive action.

However, Postecoglou’s side were controlled in their approach and effective in a couple of very significant details. They made more pressure regains (winning the ball back within five seconds of pressuring an opponent) and more counter-pressure regains (winning the ball back again within five seconds of turning it over themselves). And, while the number of shots conceded in those three matches stayed constant, importantly the type of shots being conceded didn’t. 

Compared to their season average, Celtic conceded fewer clear shots (where only the goalkeeper is between shooter and goal), fewer high press shots (which come after the opposition has won the ball back in the Bhoys’ own half) and they conceded no counter-attacking shots at all. In fact they only faced two on-target shots from open play, both from some distance outside the box, and the average xG per shot by their opponents was a very low 0.04. Even when including last week’s slightly more open match against Hibs the average xG per shot conceded is just 0.064 for October.

And, how’s this for busting perception? In the 2018-19 treble-treble winning season, when the Hoops conceded just 20 league goals, they allowed 7.34 shots per match with an average of 0.079 xG per shot. This season Celtic have allowed 7.82 shots with an average of 0.078 xG per shot. For all the talk of Postecoglou’s leaky and reckless defence, that's a very comparable, and strong, set of underlying numbers.

Postecoglou has made some minor adjustments to his tactics as the season has progressed in order to exert more control on games. There has been a focus on a more measured manner of building up the pitch so that the team avoid being stretched and are set, together, higher up the park and ready to win the ball back if possession breaks down. In addition, Celtic’s inverted full-back use is now more sophisticated with, generally, only one coming inside at a time so that the team maintains more width and has better coverage of space and improved passing options.

READ MORE: Blunt Celtic have only themselves to blame for missing out on top spot - Tony Haggerty

The key to much of this is the midfield pivot: Callum McGregor. Although Tom Rogic was electric in attack against Hibs, and accepting that game-state also influenced matters, the real difference between the first half and second half performance was not so much the loss of the Australian magician as an individual but the impact of his substitution on the system and its reliance on McGregor.

Nir Bitton, Rogic’s replacement, took McGregor’s place as the deepest, central midfielder and the captain was pushed slightly forward and to the left. McGregor’s ability, in that deep role, to retain possession by acting as a passing option for the Celtic goalkeeper and centre-backs, pick up any loose balls, pass quickly and accurately even when under pressure and move the team up the pitch together was lost and so was control of the match. 

With Rogic now unavailable for a number of weeks Postecoglou is left to reflect on his short blanket again as the lack of depth in the 8/10 role has a knock-on effect on the system. With no natural replacement for Rogic, McGregor was moved out of the pivot role for the Livi match and could be for a stretch of matches to come.

Other individuals have also aided Celtic’s stranglehold on matches and improved defensive performances. David Turnbull was dispossessed half as often in October’s league matches compared to his average for the season and is offering increased positional rotation - dropping more intelligently into wide pockets of space to act as a passing option to retain possession and filling in behind McGregor when he opts to carry the ball forward.

Cameron Carter-Vickers, now the leading player in the league for aerial win percentage, is benefiting from stability of selection at the back and demonstrating fine penalty-box defending, particularly against crosses from open play. In addition, his ball carrying into midfield is smarter as he generally opts only to act when Anthony Ralston has not inverted and is providing a passing option and cover.

Finally, Kyogo Furuhashi’s return to the line-up, particularly as a centre forward, has helped Celtic in their execution of a highly effective and interesting diamond or box pressing tactic. This tactic not only keeps control of matches and protects Celtic defensively by stopping opponents swiftly high up the pitch but has also led directly to goals for Celtic against Motherwell, Ferencvaros and Hibs.

Against Motherwell, Furushashi, second only to Hearts’ Cammy Devlin for quantity of possession adjusted pressures per 90 in the league, acted as the tip of the diamond when Celtic didn’t have the ball and aimed to force the opponent into a midfield kill box before winning the ball back.

McGregor, often compared to an American football quarterback on the ball in this system, takes influence from a sport more popular in Postecoglou’s homeland and acts as a rugby scrum-half, closing off the base of the diamond and ready to pounce on any loose ball. In this instance he immediately handed off possession to Rogic, acting as an outer wall of the box along with Turnbull, who fed Jota to score. 

For the third goal against Hibs Jota and Furuhashi’s roles were exchanged but the principles, particularly McGregor’s control at the base, remained. He’s ready to prevent a counter-attack and gives Rogic the security, once Jota has won the ball within the diamond, to set off on a mazy dribble and help set up the Japanese centre forward to score. 

Against Ferencvaros, for Celtic’s second goal, the personnel are again different except for McGregor but the approach is consistent. The captain, controlling play at the base of the diamond, hands-off possession to Jota and a high-quality chance is swiftly set up for Turnbull. 

November is a critical month for Postecoglou’s side, with a Scottish League Cup semi-final, a slim possibility of progression in Europe resting on winning both matches and vital matches to face in the domestic title fight.

Celtic’s newfound ability to control matches - in the way they build up the pitch and win possession back - will be integral to their success.