£6m Jota deal would make him a Celtic cornerstone - but should he be?

With reports suggesting a cost of £6m, his permanent signing would be a significant resource outlay for the club and would make the winger a cornerstone for Ange’s rebuild. Should he be?

Let’s start with the good news – Jota has been extremely productive so far in attack. This first radar compares attacking metrics for the young attacker so far in SPFL league matches with a vintage James Forrest 2018-2019 season.

The relative similarities leave me with two thoughts:

• Jota has been really good
• It's odd some supporters still undervalue how good Forrest has been

Both offered high rates of goal threat and creating opportunities for teammates, as well as taking opponents on via the dribble with success.

Now let’s take a look at defending and pressing:

Here we have a bit more of a mixed bag, with either player edging the other in the various metrics. For the purposes of this analysis, I’ll draw your attention to the PAdj Pressures and Pressures metrics. Also, as much as I’ve enjoyed Forrest as a player, his reputation has not been that of an aggressive defender.

A topic covered in this column on various occasions has been the scope and specificity of demands on certain players with an “Angeball” system. For example, Joe Hart has handled the ball far more with his feet at Celtic, averaging 27 passes so far in league games versus a career average of 18. That was a topic reviewed in late July when I profiled how Ange used his keepers in Japan.

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It wouldn't be presumptuous to say that most Celtic supporters would name Kyogo Furuhashi as the best signing of the summer transfer window. And his style of play in the striker position offers some insight into the Jota question.

First, let’s compare Kyogo so far this season in defensive and pressing metrics with Odsonne Edouard’s first two seasons at Celtic, with one primarily under Brendan Rodgers, and the other under Neil Lennon:

Similar to what was profiled for how Ange uses his keepers, Kyogo’s pressing metrics are orders of magnitude higher than Edouard’s. Obviously, systems were different, so now let’s look at Edouard’s brief stint in Ange’s system this season, while comparing it both with his own 2019-2020 season, then also Kyogo’s so far this season:

We can see how Edouard’s volume of pressing went way up under Ange, but was still well below the level Kyogo has produced.

Next, we have a league-wide view of PAdj Pressure (Possession Adjusted) for both strikers and wingers who have played at least 300 minutes this season, which offers additional context as to the outlier nature of Kyogo’s level of pressing:

We can see that along with Sakala at Rangers, Kyogo is way out in front versus his peers, while Jota ranks more middle of the pack. In fact, we can see Abada has been about 30% more active in this pressing metric than Jota.

Upon Ange being hired, several journalists who covered his time in Japan and Australia stated that he will likely take a season to ruthlessly sort out which players and staff he wants to retain in order to play the style of football he requires. With rumours of Celtic looking to sign Daizen Maeda from Ange’s former club in the January window, and perhaps one other attacking player, would that suggest Jota may not be in Ange’s plans after this season?

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The manager demands a specific style of play from his players, and it is always possible that Jota will be able to improve what he contributes with pressures. However, given the importance of defending from the front and creating scoring chances from pressing, it would not be surprising if Ange deems the hefty transfer fee could be better allocated elsewhere.

I would be content using the £6m on Maeda and another Ange-selected winger plus midfielder, instead of signing Jota permanently. “Ange ball” demands that wingers play like Forrest in attack, but like Kyogo in defence.