The tightening Celtic and Rangers gap and why the first evolution of Angeball has already begun

These radars have been separated out between an ensemble of metrics I have labelled Chance Creation and Shots and then Defending and Style of Play. In addition, further separated time periods from the season to date and then prior to and after the close of the transfer window. The rationale for conducting the analysis this way was two-fold:

1. Look for potential change in trend in performance levels and/or style of play

2. The transfer window line of demarcation was when a significant outflow and inflow of talent at Celtic occurred (Edouard and Christie out with Jota and Carter-Vickers in), and also a finality for Rangers players who may have preferred to move on in their careers but remained.

The first group of radars above show Celtic having been the more dominant side relative to chance creation, though the trend has moved in a negative direction from a Celtic supporter’s perspective. There were the two huge games of output versus Dundee and St. Mirren which heavily impact the first four games, but those games also involved Christie and Edouard, whom were and are notable talents that offered significant output in their brief stints in Ange’s system.

Generally speaking, Rangers have been improving, as seen in increased xG from open play, clear shots, and high press shots. In contrast, Celtic have been going in the other direction, with lower xG from open play, fewer clear shots, more shots from counter-attacks and less from high press.

The second group of radars compares defending and style of play metrics for the same time periods. Again, a picture emerges of a shift in how each team has played. For the overall season, Celtic appear the more ball-dominant, aggressive and direct side which deploys a high press with greater intensity. However, this is why there may be value in looking at the periods prior to and after the transfer window.

For Celtic, there appears a clear shift which also happens to have been corroborated to a degree by public comments by Callum McGregor as to the team having made some adjustments. Celtic appear to have become more passive defensively on the margin, with a material decline in pressures, while aggression and deep progression metrics further indicate a greater focus on relatively slower buildup. The shift in the metrics to lower rates of shots generated from high press and more from counterattacks also support this evolution. While pressing metrics have declined, counterpressing and relative rate of counterpressing within the opponents’ half have increased, which also fits with the evolution to more controlled possession within the opposition half, with Celtic aggressively counterpressing to regain possession when lost.

In contrast, Rangers have evolved from a relatively passive defensive and pressing style and become far more aggressive defensively and with pressing and counterpressing. This has been reflected in the related metrics, as well as via defensive distance, which shows the average defensive action took place higher up the pitch and even more so than Celtic over the post-window period. The evolution in Rangers’ defensive and pressing play was also evident and related to their shot metrics, with increased clear shot and high press metrics.

Of course, all this data and metrics examine the past, so what might they suggest about the future? Are these shifts in playing style likely to be durable, and if so, is that good or bad?

This ensemble of metrics and related analysis has been “top-down,” which is to say examining things at the team level. When I look at a “bottoms-up,” additional portions of the picture are completed. Here is an updated radar showing defensive and pressing metrics for Christie’s relatively brief stint compared with Jota’s:

Jota has been fabulous and entertaining in attack, but Christie’s defensive and pressing activities dwarfed his output during his brief stint. Settling on moving McGregor back to the defensive midfielder role with Turnbull and Rogic as attacking 8’s has further amplified the shift in personnel away from an aggressive high press.

Conversely, Rangers have shifted the composition of their staff relative to playing time. In midfield, Steven Davis’ minutes have dropped considerably, with younger and more athletically dynamic players like Lundstram, Kamara, and now potentially Jack, offering more speed and quickness to reduce opposition counterattacks while pressing high more aggressively.

The recent introduction of Fashion Sakala also fits with this evolution, as his pressing metrics jump out, along with Kyogo Furuhashi’s, relative to peers within the league, and dramatically higher than Alfredo Morelos and Kemar Roofe’s.

With the return of Ryan Kent to fitness, Rangers may now have the athleticism to be a formidable pressing force via their front six.

There may be an irony in all this, as “Ange ball” has seemingly morphed into a style closer to what Brendon Rodgers played at Celtic, while Rangers may be moving more in a direction of “Ange ball.” As the overall xG metrics from the first set of radars indicate, the evolution of squads and playing styles has resulted in a tightening of underlying performance metrics. Relative squad depth, related injury issues, and decisions the clubs make in the upcoming transfer window could prove to be decisive in determining which journey culminates in the league title.