Celtic vs Rangers: Reasons to be cheerful and fearful amid derby of 'imponderables'

Whilst Postecoglou sampled the cultural nuances of Ibrox first hand on 29th August 2021 (his 11th game in charge), for van Bronckhorst, it will be drawing on his playing experiences although he will never have encountered a 100% partisan Celtic Park.

Given the evolutionary nature of the home team, and the fact this is the away teams’ first Celtic Park trip under new management, there are still many imponderables. Add in the further disruption caused by an international break and injury concerns.

A shrug of the shoulders and “I dunno” would a dull article make so instead, here are three things I am worrying about, and three things that give me hope in my heart (head’s gone).

Reasons to be Fearful 1..2..3

1. Derby Winning Experience

After lording it over their rivals for many years, the tables turned as far as match outcomes over the Steven Gerrard/Michael Beale reign.

There is no denying recent history is on the Blues' side. They are on a 7-match unbeaten run against the Hoops.

The last Celtic victory was 8th December 2019, 1-0 in the League Cup Final, and a spotty win it was too. The last Celtic win at home was 31st March 2019.

Rangers have a relatively settled squad packed with players who have been over the course in this fixture. Whilst their overall trophy count is undeniably a disappointment given the sums spent, their track record in this match up has been very good.

Celtic have Callum McGregor and James Forrest who will mine memories of regularly beating their rivals, but for the rest of the squad this will be a new experience.

Some will not be tainted by failure in the fixture, of course.

READ MORE: Ange Postecoglou Celtic Q+A in full: Not changing his approach for Rangers and don't ask about Kyogo!

2. Pacy Wingers

Celtic’s weaknesses can be identified as left-back, left-sided centre back and a general exposure to fast transitions.

The visitors will be packed with pace down the flanks should Ryan Kent, Amad Diallo and Fasion Sakala be adopted.

Taylor will likely be playing left-back, and after a long shoulder injury absence has looked slow to get back up to pace (something he sadly lacks). His recovery in transition has been a particular concern.

Alongside him will be Carl Starfelt, whose defending can be very steady, but whose error count is the highest in the squad (0.67 per 90m) and who has the lowest Defensive Action Success Rate of the centre backs (69%). He is improving though.

What Celtic will fear is a toxic combination of an out of position Greg Taylor, an over-reaching Starfelt and an absence in centre midfield of a true holding “6”. Nightmares of last season.

Full-backs inverting will be important for Celtic to create midfield overloads. The obvious danger is in James Tavernier and Borna Barisic supporting their pacy partners in creating wide opportunities to outnumber Celtic.

Recovery pace and anticipation will be key.

3. Midfield Athleticism

Celtic will have to throw Reo Hatate and Matt O’Riley into the fire on this one due to lack of alternatives. Fortunately, they have made sparkling starts to their Celtic careers.

Both have show all-round capability in defensive areas, creativity and goal threat. But whilst they are quick of thought and movement, will they be able to match the more robust physicality of the Rangers midfield, especially Aribo and Kamara?

According to Statsbomb, Aribo is 85th percentile for Tackles, 82nd for Interceptions and 87th for successful dribbles. Here is a player than can mess up your possession and then drive the team forward.

Kamara doesn’t have the attacking dynamism of the Nigerian, but excels again at Interceptions (94th percentile) and Deep Progressions (93rd). He is also 99th percentile in overall passing – a nice mixture of silk and steel.

These opponents will be a step up for both new Celts, although a short burst of the excellent Benni Baningime of Hearts may have set a benchmark.

Reasons to be Cheerful 1..2..3

1. Mean Reversion

Considering how awful Celtic were last season and how little Lennon seemed able to adjust his approach to counter Gerrard/Beale’s set up, the games between the two were remarkably close.

Averaging out the performance data over the last two seasons shows Celtic actually averaging a higher xG (1.63 to 1.48) whilst the Blues had slightly more shots (12 to 11.5) and touches in the box (18 to 13).

In other words, between a chronically organised Celtic and a well-oiled machine of last season opponent, there really wasn’t a lot in the games (the 1-4 aside).

This season, I draw your attention to two excellent football analysis resources from both sides of the divide.

In the green corner of Twitter, the @CynicAnalysis account calculates an Expected Points table based on the performance data of the games played. The match data is modelled/simulated (Monte Carlo simulation around 10,000 times) to get the expected outcomes. These show that based on this model, Celtic SHOULD be ahead in the CURRENT table by just under 2 points as opposed to being 2 points behind.

In the blue, another fine resource, the @GersReport account. He uses the performance data from matches completed to project FORWARD and game out the rest of the fixtures. Using this method, Celtic have been up to 10 points ahead of their rivals by seasons end, and the current Project Points table would see Celtic triumph by nearly 6 points.

Both these models cannot be 100% accurate but have been proven to be reliable indicators in previous seasons.

What this all means is, in laypersons terms, Celtic are due a bit of luck!

And certainly, in having a penalty missed versus Hearts, and then bagging a late winner versus Dundee United, maybe that variance worm has turned!

2. Celtic Cohesion

Celtic lack strategic and organisation cohesion last season (did I mention that before?).

Now we have a manager demanding and getting finely targeted recruits to arrive at the early part of the transfer window to fit into specific roles within the team. Witchcraft!

The season’s trend has been that following each break, Celtic come out more coherent having had time with the manager on the training ground. In short, they are systematically stronger as the season progresses and the plethora of new players bed in.

This has been severely stressed by an unbelievable run of injury, but Celtic have not lost to anyone bar Bayer Leverkusen (3rd in the Bundesliga) since 19th September 2021 – the lovely Livingston.

A 21-match domestic unbeaten run has seen only 11 goals conceded (off 16.1 xG to be fair). But in the league, Celtic have the lowest xG against (0.65 per 90m).

Despite the constant changes to personnel, system cohesion is taking root.

READ MORE: Has Ange Postecoglou been in 'full control' of Celtic's best January transfer window ever?

3. Pressure and Player Perspective

If we cast our minds back to 2019 and early 2020 (I realise why most of us wouldn’t want to!), a Niko Katic goal at Celtic Park but the Ibrox club two points behind the Champions with a game in hand.

Pressure on!

They then collapsed pretty spectacularly, and a 0-1 loss to Hamilton and 0-1 Cup defeat to bottom of the table Hearts saw many of the loyal calling for blood. One could speculate that the season being ended prematurely kept Gerrard in role.

As mentioned, the COVID season was a disaster of quite epic proportions for Celtic from start to end. Rangers won the league at a canter, deservedly, whilst never being put under even superficial pressure. Celtic fans were calling for Neil Lennon to leave from October 2020 on. It was a procession.

This group of players have also failed time and again to win crucial cup matches. One meaningful trophy to show for over £100m expenditure and the second-highest player budget in Scotland is a poor return from the last 10 years.

Simply, Celtic need to get back to putting this side under PRESSURE. The evidence is that they may collapse when such force is applied.

A further nuance that Celtic fans have suffered first-hand is the reliance on players who are not fully committed to the cause. Last season Kris Ajer, Olivier Ntcham, Ryan Christie and Odsonne Edouard were all known to see their futures elsewhere but a combination of a collapsing transfer marker due to COVID, and a desire by the club to hold onto disaffected players thinking this would aid a 10 in a row charge (they were mistaken) saw limp performances.

It is well documented that Connor Goldson is unlikely to renew his contract, that Barisic, Kent and Alfredo Morelos might welcome moves away. But all are still in Glasgow. To be fair to Morelos he has seen a renaissance of sorts under van Bronckhorst who has given him an uncluttered central striker role. He isn’t available, however. The other three’s season performances echo those of the aforementioned Celts.

In the heat of battle, when the pressure is truly on, can such players find an extra 5%? The Celtic experience was they could not.

All very non-stats, but sometimes the emotion just takes over! Enjoy the match!