Do Celtic actually have a low-block problem?

It is certainly understandable to feel that way, given the multiple examples this season of various opponents parking the bus amid the Hoops barraging the penalty area with crosses.

With Sunday’s game scheduled at Almondvale, Celtic return to the scene of a prior ‘crime.’ During their last trip away to Livingston, the barrage included 23 crosses into their box, with just six reaching their target.

Celtic were only able to create 1.22 in non-penalty xG (npxG) that game, per StatsBomb, and just 0.62 from open play. But that was just one game, so what has the rest of the season looked like?

First, here is a graph showing every league game’s npxG for and against Celtic:

If it feels like we have been on a bit of a seesaw ride lately, npxG since the winter break has reflected a decent amount of variance in chance creation. The following is a list of games so far this season in which chance creation has been towards the lower end:

I have attempted to source information on pitch sizes, with what is listed in square meters and purely estimated.

Aggression is a metric that measures the proportion of an opponent’s pass receipts that are tackled, fouled or pressured within two seconds. Defensive distance is the average distance from a team’s goalline (scale of 0-100) defensive actions take place. In this chart, those two metrics are for the opponents listed. 

WATCH: How can Celtic end their Almondvale jinx? - video debate

There are some interesting tendencies that seem to exist relative to how opposition teams that have had some success in limiting our chances have done so while accounting for their financial resources.

For example, the likes of Rangers, Aberdeen, and Hearts had some success by being more aggressive and advanced in engaging Celtic's attack.

Conversely, sides like St Mirren and Livingston have had their success by being far more passive and sitting deep.

Motherwell were torn apart in the one game (not shown) when they combined aggression and being advanced at Celtic Park, while they had much better success when being very passive in the game at Fir Park. 

We can also see what may be a correlation between the teams which have sat deep and played relatively passive with the number of box crosses by Celtic, with a season-to-date average of fourteen.

When looking at the two games versus Livingston earlier this season, the metrics were relatively close, but Celtic were able to create about double the amount of xG from open play on the bigger pitch at Parkhead. 

With Sunday’s fixture on the smaller Livingston pitch, it will be interesting to see if Celtic persist with a high amount of box crosses should Livingston once again setup relatively deep and play somewhat passively.

With home games on the larger Parkhead pitch versus Ross County and St Johnstone comprising the two remaining non-derby pre-split fixtures after Sunday, and the fact neither has deployed a combination sitting deep and passive play so far versus Celtic, earning three points at Livingston really would be a significant result.

Here’s hoping they have either figured something new out... or get some favourable bounces of the ball.