Did Celtic's Stephen Welsh deserve to be SFWA young player of the year?

Initially the case against the 22-year-old probably comes to mind easier than a case for him: he has barely played since the winter break, he’s had a couple of hairy moments overall (think Livingston away) and his last outing was an out-of-position half-hour in which Celtic were knocked out of the Scottish Cup by a move that came down his side of the pitch.

Since the resumption of SPFL football in January, Welsh’s starts have encompassed cup ties against Alloa Athletic and Raith Rovers as well as the ill-fated Europa Conference League second leg loss to Bodo/Glimt. He hadn’t played in green and white at all for two months before that 36-minute spell at right-back in the Hampden defeat to Rangers.

There is, however, some recency bias in all of this. Before the winter break he played 1,783 minutes of Celtic first-team action plus 373 for Scotland Under-21s, where he captains three of the other four candidates. The SFWA gives consideration to a player’s season across the board, so those international minutes do count (oh, and there’s no point mentioning Liel Abada et al… it’s Scots only and has been for years now).

For context, that pre-winter run of minutes alone is more than two of the other players in the running – Nathan Patterson (951) and Ross Graham (1,780… which includes his five months spent in the Championship with Dunfermline Athletic) – have managed in total this season.

Overall, Welsh has clocked 2,622 minutes of action (2,103 for Celtic, 519 for the under-21s) which is enough for second place in the five-man shortlist behind his international team-mate, and Hibernian ever-present, Josh Doig (3,415).

So the ‘barely played’ reasoning is out the window – though it should probably have rendered Patterson, rarely-spotted at Rangers even before departing for Everton, as a non-runner.

But just playing isn’t quite enough for a seasonal award – so how has Welsh performed in his time on the pitch?

When Welsh has played his WyScout per 90 minute averages suggest he’s usually been good for five interceptions, 3.4 aerial duel wins, 3.2 clearances, 12.5 recoveries, 6.9 accurate passes into the final third, a 92.6 per cent overall pass accuracy and 71 per cent defensive duel success rate for the concession of less than a foul. He has contributed to 13 clean sheets in 28 games. Those per 90 totals are including his under-21 matches but, notably, they all actually improve slightly if those are discounted and only Celtic first-team minutes are considered.

There have been less than impressive spells too – his weak defending for Andrew Shinnie’s goal in the defeat at Almondvale will stick out for people – but he has generally performed well given the timing of his run as first choice came when Postecoglou was chopping and changing things at the back a lot. Indeed, his switch from right centre-back to left for a crucial match against AZ Alkmaar went under the radar for what is not an easy transition (and also one, it must be said, that Carl Starfelt has grown into ably).

For additional context, in those same eight per 90 categories, he compares favourably to much-improved team-mate Starfelt. The two are much of a muchness in aerial wins with Welsh edging defensive duels, interceptions, fouls and clearances and the Swede pass accuracy, accurate passes to the final third and recoveries. Maybe now that new four-year contract the youngster signed this season starts to make a bit more sense.

Starfelt, of course, does not qualify for a young player of the year award restricted to young Scots. So let’s turn our attention to StatsBomb and compare Welsh to the other centre-backs in the league, then with the other centre-back on the shortlist.

Unsurprisingly, Welsh excels in metrics such as passing percentage and xGBuildup while the possession-adjusted categories help show his quality despite playing in a team that often has the ball in excess of 60 per cent of a match. Conversely, his tackled-dribbled past percentile is poor and although he ranks well for the number of aerial wins he makes the overall percentage he wins does not stand out for a centre-back.

He compares well in this format against Graham (the other centre-back in contention for the award):

For some additional context on the United youngster, it is worth noting that he has adjusted remarkably well to the top-level game after his loan spell in the second tier. He made his debut as a substitute against Celtic on January 29, kept three clean sheets in a row thereafter and has played consistently since. Having said that, the last time he played in a game without conceding was February 9 as the Tangerines’ form has fallen off.

Still, Graham has picked up a couple of goals and an assist and dealt well with the occasional shift to left-back into the bargain in his 1,000-plus minutes of United first-team action. He also netted on his Scotland under-21s debut against Kazkahstan in March – where he started alongside not just Welsh but also Ramsay and Doig too.

Speaking of those two… while it’s true playing at the back for Celtic means you have more attacking responsibility in terms of contributing to build-up play than most players in your position around the league, it would still be somewhat unfair to compare Welsh with the other three candidates – who are all full-backs – across the same categories.

Given Patterson’s extremely small sample size domestically, the benefits of trying to gauge his contributions via stats is virtually pointless - but not so with his Aberdeen and Hibs contemporaries.

Ramsay, 18, was an offensive standout earlier in the season despite Aberdeen’s shocking form and the underlying stats back up his potential too; he still ranks top five in the league for both overall and passing OBV (min. 600 minutes). He got an injury in October that kept him out for a month but has been playing regularly again since and his mix of technical skill and set-piece delivery has contributed a goal and six assists in all competitions. The fact that is for a team that is struggling mightily this season could actually have countrd for him rather than against him.

Doig, the reigning young player of the year, would have become the first player to repeat since Kieran Tierney’s hat-trick of wins between 2015-16 and 2017-18.

The 19-year-old Hibs left-back played the most minutes of any of the shortlist while, like Ramsay, it is for a team that has struggled this season. As a result he hasn't been quite as proficient in terms of goals and assists – zero and two respectively – but the Hibs team as a whole haven’t particularly clicked in the attacking sense either.

But at the other end he has added a new string to his bow: centre-back in a back three. While most of his campaign has been split between his more natural positions of full-back and wing-back, Doig has clocked almost 500 minutes in a new role and that could have played into his hands in his quest for a double.

In truth, this is not a stellar awards class and one of the full-backs was always perhaps more likely to get the nod over Welsh. But did he have a case? Were his contributions good enough to be in with a shout of becoming the third Celt to win the award? A couple of thousand minutes and a new four-year deal suggest so.