What Celtic's performance against European teams and Rangers tells us about Angeball

The following table provides various statistical metrics for fourteen games Celtic have played this season versus European-level competition. I made a judgement call to exclude the Midtjylland and Jablonec games due to the extreme early season and unusual state of the squad for the former, and the much lower quality level of the latter.

I selected these metrics in order to try and ascertain some insight into the level of ‘control’ Celtic had in each game, as well as proxies for aspects of play which may reasonably be associated with ‘Angeball.’ Ange Postecoglou’s reputation and public comments have expressed a desire to play his style of football regardless of the opposition. This is my attempt to try and gauge how well Celtic have done that on a relative basis, and how Sunday’s game may be extremely interesting in this regard.

With Real Betis and Bayer Leverkusen the two highest quality opponents faced in the sample, it is notable that neither are particularly aggressive teams when it comes to pressing, nor possession-heavy playing styles. For example, per Wyscout, Real Betis are currently 8th in PPDA (a proxy for pressing intensity- lower suggests greater intensity) and 7th in possession in La Liga, while Bayer Leverkusen are 11th in PPDA and 6th in possession. For further perspective, their average possession in league games has been 53.4% and 53.5%, while Celtic have averaged 67.7%. In fact, even in the six Europa League group games, Celtic had a slightly higher average level of possession than either.

Celtic were relatively successful in maintaining a high level of possession, with superior passes per defensive actions (PPDA) compared to the opposition in most games Europa League games, with the exceptions of AZ Alkmaar and Bayer Leverkusen away. While I included the game in the sample, please remember the second Real Betis game was a dead rubber, and included a makeshift lineup, including a starting midfield three of James McCarthy, Ismaila Soro, and Liam Shaw.

Unsurprisingly, the number of passes for teams correlated with possession, and there again we can see Celtic generally having had success in maintaining a degree of control. The last three columns included offer some insight into the amount of OBV Celtic’s opposition generated in each game relative to passing, dribbling & carries, and shots. I think of the first two as a combined proxy for ball progression in order to have advanced attacks versus Celtic. Shot OBV is basically a proxy for how well teams took their chances or the quality of finishing relative to how good the chances were.

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Generally speaking, it appears that Celtic were relatively good at imposing Angeball upon the Europa League competition, with two of the most difficult away fixtures understandable exceptions. Along with the recent Scottish Cup Semi-Final fixture, I did not have access to Statsbomb data for the Europa Conference Leagues games. While it is less than ideal to include multiple data sources, I included comparable Wyscout data for those three games out of necessity. Once again versus Bodo/Glimt, and despite the very disappointing results, Celtic generally imposed the preferred style of play. Possession and pass volumes were high and Celtic were by far the more aggressive side when it came to pressing. Bodo/Glimt were surgical and efficient in countering and taking their chances, having scored their five goals on just 2.25 in xG per Wyscout’s model, while Celtic scored just the single goal on 1.84 xG.

As we progress to the bottom of the table, we can see that the first derby of the season followed a similar pattern, with Celtic generally imposing the preferred style of play, and Rangers having done enough to secure the tightly contested 1-0 victory.

Obviously, the next derby, and the new Rangers manager’s first, took place next. Despite the resounding 3-0 Celtic victory, an interesting tenor to the game unfolded. As a one-off, the lower possession, volume of passes, and more level PPDA levels could reasonably be explained away due to the shift in game state following Celtic scoring their third goal late in the first half. The second half, with Celtic defending a lead, appeared to concede possession and challenge Rangers to attempt to break down an atypically defensive tactical half.

However, in the 2-1 Celtic win at Ibrox, these issues appeared to persist and intensify, with even lower possession and pass volume, with PPDA having flipped in Rangers’ favour. The 1-2 defeat in the Cup Semi-Final continued these issues yet again, though having moderated a bit versus the game at Ibrox. Interestingly, Celtic had a higher xG per Statsbomb in all three league games, as well as in the cup per Wyscout. For the league games, this is partially explained by the last three columns.

To put it bluntly, Rangers have been very poor with passing and finishing versus Celtic, and particularly so under GVB. For example, in the two league games under GVB, Rangers’ Pass OBV was about a quarter of the level they have averaged in their fourteen Europa League games since the playoff round in August. Their Shot OBV has been significantly negative in all three league games under both managers.

Despite having been relatively toothless in the final third, there has been evidence of Rangers having had some success in limiting Celtic’s ability to impose the preferred style of play upon our derby rival. With Sunday’s capstone of the trilogy at home, will Celtic have more success in controlling the game and imposing our style as one may reasonably expect? Rangers need to win the game and are likely to come out of the blocks aggressively, so let us hope Celtic are able to prompt a continuation of the Ibrox side's struggles in the final third.