Are Celtic properly prepared for the Champions League?

With the first game scheduled for early September, and the first Glasgow Derby not scheduled until the weekend prior, how prepared are Celtic likely to be for the Champions League campaign?

Pre-season and the first month of league games will not have exposed them to opposition anywhere near the quality of the sides which populate the first three pots within the Champions League draw.

This is particularly concerning in relation to Celtic’s level of preparedness to face teams of that level given the confluence of the current squad composition, this summer’s recruitment, the manager’s playing style and the level of opposition they have faced over the past year.

This first graphic offers some context for the first three: squad, summer recruitment and Ange Postecoglou’s playing style...

It is typical for players’ passing effectiveness to decline when placed under pressure by the opposition, which is why many top managers such as Postecoglou deploy various pressing strategies and tactics.

The first graphic offers some context for potential Celtic players who are likely to be the focal points of playing out from the back and deploying a high defensive line, two core components of the manager's style of play.

We can see that Callum McGregor is perhaps unsurprisingly a standout, as his decline in passing is modest and rates in the 70th percentile for his position across all leagues covered by StatsBomb. While not shown, his decline is also coming off of a high starting point - i.e. he is generally an accurate passer. 

Stephen Welsh and Benjamin Siegrist deserve particular mention, as Welsh’s metric is based upon limited data and Siegrist's decent percentile comes with the context of having one of the worst general accuracy rates for his peer group (ninth percentile, i.e. it is hard to drop a lot from an already low level).

We can see from the remaining players that maintaining passing accuracy when placed under opposition pressure has not been a strength. Celtic’s pre-season deployment of Joe Hart in an extremely high line is important context relative to those surrounding him in the build-up, as we can see from his metric that being pressed has resulted in a significant drop in accuracy. 

Hart being deployed this way is a year behind schedule, as reviewed a year ago when evaluating how Postecoglou had deployed his keepers in Japan. Vasilis Barkas’s metric is included in the table above as, while his shot-stopping at Celtic was very poor, his abilities on the ball offered an ‘eye test’ for what a press-resistant keeper’s skillset may look like.  

Ideally, Hart would be proficient in this regard or, if not, at least surrounded by players who are. Outside of McGregor, and to a lesser extent Josip Juranovic, none stood out last season.

The additions of Siegrist and Moritz Jenz do not appear likely to improve this issue, at least based on the sample sizes available. Cameron Carter-Vickers, Carl Starfelt and Greg Taylor’s performances indicate this may be a particular vulnerability for them as well.

Christopher Jullien as a theoretical alternative has also not excelled in this regard and the profiling exercise of Alexandro Bernabei indicated similarly for him at this point of his development.

Unless there are material additions to the squad prior to the summer transfer window closing, this may be an area of relative weakness that is endemic for this season’s Celtic team. Those weaknesses are rarely exploited by 10 of 11 league opponents but presented significant issues in Europe last season. 

This raises a question: how likely is it that the opponents faced last season and so far this pre-season will have adequately prepared Celtic for what they are likely to face in the Champions League group stage?

The 538 Soccer Power Index offers one objective model with which to benchmark the relative strength of teams across leagues. The table above offers the current ranking.

In addition, two pressing-related metrics from Wyscout have been added (passes per defensive action and challenge intensity). The figures show each team’s ranking in the metrics within their respective leagues for last season. 

We can see that the pre-season has not included opponents of a particularly high standard, with the highest-ranked side one which was not focused on pressing last season.

In addition, none were dominant sides relative to pressing within their domestic league seasons. Also included are the Europa League group stage and Europa Conference League knockout opponents from last season to offer additional context. None were particularly high-intensity pressing sides last season. 

Yes, pre-season games are not important relative to results but playing against a standard that was not very high did continue the trend of conceding a relatively high number of goals from last season when facing a standard of opposition higher than non-Rangers sides domestically.

Celtic conceded 20 goals in the eight games versus the opponents listed above last season, and nnine over the five pre-season games.

Ahead of the Champions League draw, the following teams could present a potentially daunting confluence of upper-tier quality and more aggressive pressing styles: Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Ajax, RB Salzburg and FC Porto.

Celtic appear poised to present attacking challenges to any opponent drawn, but the 13 goals conceded versus Bayer Leverkusen and Real Betis over four games last year, along with the broader context presented here, may be indicative of the challenges they will face playing Postecoglou’s style versus Champions League-level opposition. 

Even Rangers' victory in the Scottish Cup semi-final last season was accompanied by their most aggressive pressing performance of the season versus Celtic. For the upcoming Champions League campaign and domestic season of derbies, the potential mismatch of Hoops personnel and effectively breaking the press of higher-level opposition may be one of the significant obstacles to retaining the league title, as well as qualifying for knockout European football.

Fans must hope a long-overdue friendly European group draw would be a welcome development.