Celtic defender Anthony Ralston was a surprise revelation for some last season, with an advanced performance data profile which placed him near the very top of players for the season per 90 minutes.
In fact, he ranked fifth in total On-Ball Value (OBV) for all players who played at least 1,500 minutes. I compared Ralston’s performance levels up until that point last season with Josip Juranovic in this March 9 column.
Despite Juranovic’s pedigree and rumoured transfer interest from English Premier League clubs, raising his performance levels to match or eclipse that of Ralston’s last season was not something he was able to do last season.
Fortunately, that has changed over this season’s first five league games.
One thing to keep in mind with this exercise is the relatively small sample size and the strength of the schedule over the first five games.
With those caveats out of the way, to date his output by OBV has been superior in a pronounced and pervasive way compared with his own output last season (i.e. significantly better across all of the OBV sub-components).
Here was Juranovic compared to Ralson last season per OBV:
We can see the impact of Juranovic’s relative quality so far this season in this comparison, with the ‘negative’ metrics such as turnovers, fouls and being dispossessed.
Again, those sorts of events are likely to increase as Celtic face the more difficult portions of the fixture calendar, but so far so good.
Breaking out the comparison further to attacking and defending offers additional context:
As referenced in the column from March, Juranovic has often been deployed in a more narrow and inverted role compared to when Ralston has played, so the fact he has closed the gap on Ralston’s attacking output even with the inverted role will no doubt have been a welcome development.
We can also see his ‘press-resistance’ metrics continue to have been superior.
The defensive metrics offer more insight into the impact of the quality of opponents and game state, as Juranovic has understandably had to do a lot less defensive work so far. The fact he is quality over quantity, as reflected in his high Defensive Action OBV, has been encouraging especially if he is able to continue near that level as his workload increases.
Two other players with whom this sort of benchmarking exercise is a natural comparison were Kieren Tierney and James Tavernier.
Unfortunately, StatsBomb only dates back to Tierney’s last season at Celtic, when he struggled with injury. However, his quality remained quite high:
Finally, here was Juranovic compared to Tavernier per OBV so far this season, which for Tavernier has been comparable to his output last season:
This is probably a good time to remind readers that ‘stats’ are not the same as analysis, or necessarily an absolute gauge for qualitative labels like ‘best’, ‘better’ or ‘worse.’
Systems and player roles within them vary. For example, as relates to OBV, Tavernier enjoys a statistical advantage from a quantity perspective versus players who are not actively involved in set-piece deliveries.
Here was an attacking radar that highlights this impact and specifically compares various metrics from open play:
It may well be difficult for Juranovic to persist at these levels of measurable performance as the rigours of a long season unfold and upcoming trips to Tynecastle, Almondvale and Ibrox are still to come.
In addition, Celtic’s overall attacking output has increased so far this season as the squad depth and quality has improved while they also likely benefited from an extended pre-season under Ange Postecoglou.
And yet Juranovic’s start to the season has offered a glimpse of the European-level full-back Celtic require - and should expect if the club are to compete in the Champions League.
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