Celtic 'transfer window for the ages' assessed

The support given to Ange Postecoglou in terms of raw transfer spend (circa £17m net outlay) is unprecedented in recent times. You would have to go back to Martin O’Neill’s initial transfer window when Chris Sutton, Joos Valgaeran, Alan Thompson, Rab Douglas, Didier Agathe and Neil Lennon were purchased for an outlay of circa £20m.

Celtic have never been a big spending club and therefore, through time, 2022 likely represents the second biggest transfer 'splurge' in history.

Post Covid-19, that is a remarkable show of support for the manager from the board.

The question many supporters will have is: was it worth it?

How it began

Firstly, a recap.

At the end of the 2021-22 season, there is no doubt Postecoglou had much goodwill credit in the bank from the board and supporters alike. A squad mismanaged in terms of contracts and aspirations for years was in disarray when the Australian parked his hat at the door.

Initially, a ‘helpful’ board even provided some bulk to the squad with the historical acquisitions of Osaze Urhoghide and Liam Shaw and then the additions of Liam Scales and James McCarthy.

The manager had to scramble around to make his own imprint on the squad. One CEO was even deemed as “not moving fast enough” and left. But before the season started Celtic had managed to acquire Liel Abada, Kyogo Furuhashi, Carl Starfelt, Joe Hart, Josip Juranovic and Giorgios Giakoumakis on permanent deals. The loan additions of Jota and Cameron Carter-Vickers felt rushed and late.

Arguably, then, Postecoglou’s first strategic and planned window was January 2022. In short, this was a window unlike any we have seen from Celtic in recent memory. Targets were identified early and deals done such that Daizan Maeda, Reo Hatate, Matt O’Riley and Yosuke Ideguchi were available for the first match post-New Year break.

The baton had formally been passed from what was widely known as ‘Lawwell-ball’ to ‘Ange-ball’.

For the manager to create consistency such that a 32-match unbeaten run clinched the league title against opponents good enough to get to a European final was a small miracle.

But it still felt part-done.

What was needed?

At season's end, I wrote on Celtic By Numbers about the challenge ahead for the summer window.

I summarised the minimum requirements thus:

• 1 x left-back
• 2 x centre-backs
• 1 x box-to-box midfielder
• 1 x winger
• 1 x team-style-compatible goalkeeper
• 1 x number 6 depending on how much more a 29-year-old McGregor can be flogged and the capabilities of Ideguchi and McCarthy to play 25 games
• 1 x more winger as succession planning for James Forrest

Additionally, there was a legacy of players that seemed to have no or minimal part in a Postecoglou side and the club cannot carry a squad of 35 players.

What to do with the likes of Boli Bolingoli, Christopher Jullien, Ismaela Soro, Albian Ajeti?

In other words, there was considerable work to be done.

What happened?

In summary, here is the 2022 business:

Permanent transfers in

Apart from Justin Osagie from West Ham United’s academy, all the other incomings are first-team squad players. We shall rate them according to a traffic light system: red, amber and green (🔴, 🟠, 🟢).

Benjamin Siegrist: Safe but poor stylistic fit 🟠

Starting from the back, Benjamin Siegrist has assumed the goalkeeping backup position, joining from Dundee United. The wish for a ball-playing, agile keeper (quick on their feet and good on crosses – i.e. able to gather high balls and launch restarts quickly). What they got is a mature, very tall player well-versed in the SPFL and predominantly an excellent shot-stopper.

According to StatsBomb, the Swiss has 19 per cent passes into ‘danger’ – i.e. putting your team under pressure from their own passes. He doesn’t seem a good fit in regards playing style but may meet the manager's other criteria around personality, attitude and so on.

In short, a low-risk and relatively cheap signing who probably doesn’t move the dial in terms of improved playing style.

Cameron Carter-Vickers – Mission critical 🟢

In central defence, Carter-Vickers was the marquee signing. Postecoglou said on an Open Goal podcast interview he expected to use the majority of his budget making the loan deals permanent. This was arguably the most important signing of the summer. The American’s consistency is incredible. Low error rates and irrespective of who he is playing alongside, his individual performances rarely dip.

Alexandro Bernabei – An exciting prospect 🟠

The left-back was a relative unknown 21-year-old from Argentina.

I expected a first-team starter to immediately to challenge Greg Taylor. Instead, they have a young man who shows some very promising attributes. He is very quick, has great balance and power in his small frame. He loves to get forward and pops up in very unlikely positions. He counter-presses very well due to his speed and aggression.

But there are clearly areas for development. He inexplicably gives the ball away. Also, he can be caught out of position and needs to learn to make the right decisions on that.

In short, like Hatate and Abada, he is a young player who the manager thinks he can work with and improve.

Aaron Mooy – huge boost domestically, perhaps limited at Champions League level 🟠

Aaron Mooy was a surprise. Out of contract and aged 32, it wasn’t what many had in mind by ‘box-to-box midfielder in May 2022. And even more surprising is that he appears to be a foil at the deeper 6 position rather than the more advanced attacking midfield positions he has taken up in his earlier career.

What we have seen so far is a player with great game intelligence. He also possesses a broad range of passing. Additionally, he is well organised positionally and uses this to mitigate his relative lack of size and speed.

The SPFL level looks fairly easy for him but the next question is if his lack of speed and mobility would be badly exposed at Champions League level?

It is likely this one can be put down to taking advantage of a situation that unexpectedly arose. A player well known to the manager, his personality and fit will likely be low risk. So long as he isn’t depended upon at the most rarefied level, he will add squad quality.

Oliver Abildgaard – tbc 🟠

The addition of Abildgaard was the one deadline day signing. Celtic have taken advantage of a club in distress (Rubin Kazan) to pilfer two assets (Abildgaard and Sead Haksabanovic) for buttons as the club has been relegated and is subject to international sanctions, being Russian. It’s a brutal business world, is football.

It is yet to be clear what terms he is on given the necessary paperwork to get around the sanctions limitations. For now, suffice to say he is at Parkhead for at least this season.

What Celtic have acquired is an out and out 6, something lacking in the squad in terms of players Postecoglou wants.

His main strengths are his reading of the game and ability to break up play. He progresses the ball well (90th percentile in the Russian league) and also dribbles forward with the ball (also 90th+ percentile). On video he possesses more speed and better balance than you’d expect from a 6ft 4in ‘enforcer’. He probably is not the most creative nor will carry too much of a goal threat.

Does this mean a double pivot in Europe? Will McGregor be pushed forward? Nice problems to have.

Jota – an unambiguous positive 🟢

The bulk of the transfer kitty was spent on Jota in addition to Carter-Vickers. This was a very pleasant surprise.

The Portuguese must have raised his profile with excellent Europa League performances, assisting the goal of the season in that tournament, and double-digit goals and assists all round for Celtic. And yes, his underlying stats back this up: 0.42 xG and 0.42 xA per game. Internal enquiries may still be ongoing at Benfica.

Sead Haksabanovic – cautious optimism 🟠

The additional winger manifested in another Rubin Kazan ‘steal’ in the shape of Haksabanovic. The trend continued of early 20-something players with plenty left to prove.

For example, Jota never made the Benfica breakthrough and Carter-Vickers similarly at Tottenham Hotspur. Haksabanovic was snapped up by West Ham United as a teenager which rarely works well in the inefficient maelstrom of the English Premier League.

At 23, he now has a shot at big-club redemption.

Early signs are of a Jota-esque, very direct, very ball hungry, all-round attacking threat. Again, there is a lack of evidence so far but, on the face of it and at the likely price point of less than £2m, it seems a very smart move.

Daizen Maeda – the weapon the others do not have 🟢

Finally, Maeda’s loan was converted to permanent as was contractually agreed in January.

He is unique, probably in Scotland, for his sprinting, his raw pace and his ability to press the opposition relentlessly. In addition, he has already contributed four assists this season and remains a goal threat (0.53 xG per 90 last season).

His strengths should scale well at European level while at the same time his weaknesses (lack of a ‘trick’ beyond raw pace, sometimes a suboptimal first touch) may also be exposed.

But overall, Celtic have a highly specialised and inimitable talent in Maeda.

In terms of incomings in general, all the ambers are trending green – the potential and stylistic fits are evident bar Siegrist. Mooy, in particular, is fascinating.

This has largely been very smart recruitment.

Permanent transfers out

The following have left:

There was a sadness to lose Tom Rogic in particular. Also, from the younger players, it was disappointing to see Karamoko Dembele’s Celtic adventure end. Luca Connell was another that seemed well-positioned for a good Celtic career that did not materialise.

Positively for Celtic, players not featuring in the manager's plans were removed from the wage bill (Bolingoli and Jullien in particular).

The only down note, and something the aforementioned Peter Lawwell was an expert at, was extracting coin from player sales. Celtic have likely brought in less than £1m to offset what has been spent.

Another large batch of academy graduates have left to further their careers elsewhere although that is a much bigger topic for another day.

Loans in

The loan – and specifically loan to buy – market is one Celtic are becoming adept at.

This season there has been only one:

Moritz Jenz – great raw material, all to play for 🟠

Two centre-backs were arguably needed but Mortiz Jenz was the chosen one. A big mate of Matt O’Riley (what can go wrong!) he is another player who had a young career at a Premier League club in Fulham before having to rebuild at a less prestigious club, FC Lorient.

Celtic offered the 23-year-old a chance to make it to the big time. It is all up to him.

First impressions are of a relatively quick but powerful centre-back. He passes off both feet while his ‘pack pass’ to Anthony Ralston for Giakoumakis’s goal at Ross County recently was beautiful – fast, accurate and cut the opposition open.

He appears to have a bit of the Jozo Simunovic’s about him – momentary lapses in concentration but, again, one the manager can work with.

Loans out

Generally, loans out at Celtic fall into two categories: a foot out the door for unwanted players and a chance to grow at a lower level and prove you have a chance at Parkhead.

It is likely Vasilis Barkas, Ismaila Soro, Albian Ajeti, Liam Scales and Liam Shaw fall into the former category.

As such it is good that there are in some cases arrangements to buy in place and there will be some reduction in wage burden.

Most interesting is how Adam Montgomery develops at St Johnstone and Mikey Johnston in Portugal with Vitoria.

Where does this leave us?

To wrap up let us revisit the wishlist:

These ratings are versus my own expectations so may differ from the player rating above.

This was a ‘being greedy’ list. In that light, it’s been a hugely successful window.

Of course, the proof is always in the performances. Deeper player verdicts will follow.

Finally, the pace of change in squad composition remains rapid, probably unsustainably so. But this is becoming Postecoglou’s squad now, undeniably.

One more window and Celtic will be in ‘business as usual’ mode (i.e. the normal cycle of replacements and recruitments).

In time, it may become apparent Celtic has never had a squad with such depth of quality. They will have had much better players, for sure, but this depth? Let’s enjoy the evidence unfolding.