Was Celtic's defeat 'just one of those games' or a harbinger of things to come? - James Dailey

In relative order of debacles, as a colour-blind person, here is my order of severity:

Kit selection: May both teams' strips burn!

Result: 2-0 to a club of St. Mirren’s resources is always a tough one to swallow

Performance: Statsbomb has xG at 1.55 vs 0.92 in Celtic’s favour

It is typical even during tremendously successful seasons to include a number of performances at that level, and frequently a couple of those sorts of results. My goal today is to try and see if anything from Sunday stood out as harbingers for potential problems going forward, or whether it is more likely to just be ‘one of those games.’

The first radar compared Sunday’s performance with the averages for Celtic’s entire league campaign last season:

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I built the radar to show metrics that offer some context as to defensive actions and style of play. We can see from the game the degree to which Celtic was dominant in possession, but that defensive and pressing actions were much less advanced up the pitch, on average. For example, the Defensive Distance metric was the average distance from Celtic’s own goal line a defensive action took place, with the scale being 0-100. The 35.61 value was quite low for Celtic under Ange Postecoglou, with last season’s average of 46.16 and 44.30 through this season’s first seven games. The metrics for pressing and counter-pressing also indicated a relative passivity in Celtic’s defending and pressing during the game. They showed a lack of volume, and efficiency, and took place more in Celtic’s half of the pitch.

In attack, Celtic’s shots resulted from slower-paced buildup and a higher than the typical volume of entries into St. Mirren’s box came from crosses, which are typically associated with lower quality chance creation.

What about St. Mirren; did they set up or play in a way that was unusual?

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That radar showed the same metrics for St. Mirren from Sunday and compared with their December 22, 2021, performance in the 0-0 draw versus Celtic in Paisley. We can see that St. Mirren played a very deep line in the 2021 game, with the Defensive Distance having been just 29.52. In contrast, Sunday’s was even higher than Celtic’s: 39.06 versus 35.61. St. Mirren’s appeared to play a 5-3-2 with a narrow midfield and two pressing forwards and was relatively successful in muting Celtic’s buildup and attack.

That relative effectiveness was also reflected in the higher efficiency in pressing and counter-pressing, with the latter having increased significantly compared to the 2021 performance. However, St. Mirren’s setup appeared as if it were more of a ‘Goldilocks’ than all-out aggression.

This radar compared Sunday’s St. Mirren performance with that of Motherwell from Celtic’s 4-0 victory at Fir Hill on February 6, 2022:

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The contrast between St. Mirren’s and Motherwell's performances was stark. The Steelmen was far more aggressive and advanced in their defending, pressing, and counter-pressing, while also having been more deliberate with their own buildup in the attack. From Celtic’s perspective, outside of Rangers, a domestic opponent who deploys such an approach is likely to be a welcome occurrence.

Opponents who stretch the pitch with their players offer ample space between lines for Celtic midfielders and inverted fullbacks to advance attacks quickly. In addition, a more deliberate buildup offers more scenarios for Celtic’s pressing and counter-pressing to create attacking opportunities in transition.

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The table offers additional context as to Sunday’s performance (listed at the bottom) compared to comparable performances during the 2021-2022 league campaign. It shows how relatively successful St. Mirren was given their level of resources, but also their ability to limit chances from open play. In addition, the chances they created overall and from open play was also impressive.

It is impossible to decompose how much of the performance was due to things like Celtic’s selection and player fatigue, but if I were one of Celtic’s domestic opponents, I would be paying a lot of attention to how St. Mirren set up and played on Sunday. It is unlikely that clubs with resources below that of Aberdeen, Rangers, Hearts or Hibs can reasonably expect to win the ‘xG battle’ versus an Ange Postecoglou-managed Celtic.

On its own, Sunday’s performance and result were likely to have been relatively normal within the context of a long season. However, St. Mirren’s plan and implementation appeared a worthy blueprint for opponents to explore which, at least in theory during away fixtures, could offer Celtic some future challenges beyond those which have transpired so far during the Postecoglou era.