Why 'chaotic and aggressive' RB Leipzig will be Celtic's first true test of Ange-ball in Europe - James Dailey

This will be a similar exercise to the one in last week’s column but, first, a little bit of context on RB Leipzig’s level of quality.

Five Thirty Eight’s Soccer Power Index currently has them ranked at 20th, which is actually down from where they have ranked over the past couple of years. Perhaps unsurprisingly given their manager was sacked recently, they have not gotten off to a great start in the Bundesliga.

Here is a radar comparing some performance metrics so far in the Bundesliga along with Celtic’s in the Scottish Premiership. Obviously, the relative strength of opposition has been dramatically different:

RB Leipzig’s current standing at 12th in the Bundesliga table may be a bit harsh relative to their underlying metrics so far. For example, they are currently seventh in the league in non-penalty xG differential.

This radar offers some additional context on their style of play relative to Celtic:

Despite playing against significantly higher-quality opposition on average, RB Leipzig have played a defensive line that may be even higher than Celtic's.

In addition, they have been very aggressive in pressing and counter-pressing opponents in the opposition’s half of the pitch, while also playing direct and with a high average pace towards goal in attack. Given how dominant Celtic are domestically, those metrics are noteworthy. 

Obviously, the two teams have shared two common opponents so far in the Champions League. First up is each of their games versus Shakhtar:

Leipzig lost badly in their home game against Shakhtar 4-1 but that was the prior manager’s last game at the helm.

We can see from this radar that they played an extremely aggressive high line and pressed/counter-pressed aggressively as well. Shakhtar were successful in capitalising on a horrid keeper error and scored on four of their five shots on target, including a deflection.

The third and fourth goals conceded were similar to the goal Celtic conceded to Shakhtar- both teams were Mudryk’d. As silly as it may sound, it was a pretty decent performance for a 4-1 defeat at home. 

The two performances against Real Madrid offer a bit more nuance and contrast between the two sides. Firstly, it was Marco Rose’s first game in charge of RB Leipzig in the group. Secondly, this radar highlights the significant contrasts in the way the games were played:

The fact that Celtic hosted Madrid while Leipzig had to visit the Bernabeu is an obvious consideration. However, even within that context, the German side's gameplan was far more defensive relative to space on the pitch.

Their defensive distance was considerably deeper in their half than St Mirren’s was against Celtic in the game last week. However, within that deeper space, they were extremely active defensively, as the aggression and pressing-related metrics indicate.

In contrast, the Hoops played a more advanced defensive line but were far less aggressive or effective. Despite having 12 per cent less possession, Celtic had just 20 pressing-related regains on 137 pressing-related actions, compared to 27 on 182 for RB Leipzig. Side note: Real Madrid are really hard to press and counter-press effectively.

This manifested in Celtic conceding 2.51 in xG from open play versus 0.99 for RB Leipzig. Here is an on-ball value radar, which highlights the problem areas Celtic had in aggregate relative to defending:

Real Madrid were able to carry the ball far too often and far too impactfully, as reflected in the 2.05 in dribble and carry OBV conceded in the game. In addition, Celtic’s -0.24 in defensive action OBV also indicates the struggles they had.

With the Hoops likely to be confident with hosting Shakhtar at Parkhead in the next encounter between the two sides, the back-to-back games against RB Leipzig are likely to be determinant for any ambitions for getting out of the group, as well as potentially securing third place and a drop into the Europa League knockout round.

Celtic can expect a completely different challenge in the two games compared to what has been encountered against Real Madrid and Shakhtar, with RB Leipzig far more likely to push their ability to build out from the back.

The ‘Red Bull’ way of playing can create chaos, with mistakes and turnovers offering players such as Timo Werner and Christopher Nkunku opportunities to use their speed and skill to generate chances. Celtic will need to maintain shape and discipline in transitions the inevitable transitions all of the pressure is likely to create. 

Like the old boxing adage 'styles make fights', these two sides should make for compelling entertainment.

It will arguably be Celtic’s first test playing 'Ange-ball' against a top European side that plays this aggressive a style and with the athletes to match.

Passing the test could be a huge milestone in the Postecoglou project at Celtic.