A question of resources: Alan Morrison's Celtic v Motherwell preview

Last time out saw their lead at the top of the table cut to two points thanks to an uncharacteristically poor performance against St Mirren. The Buddies deserve all the credit for implementing a gameplan perfectly to foil the champions. 

Motherwell lost 3-0 at home to Hearts in the previous round of fixtures, but with the expected goals (xG) tallies of 2.65 – 1.82 in favour of the Steelmen, this was very much another case of Craig Gordon (five saves) nudging the outcome in the Tynecastle club’s favour despite the underlying performance data.

So what should Celtic expect this weekend?

Form and fitness

Perhaps the greatest unknown for the Hoops is the state their returning internationalists will be in. 

Sead Haksabanovic carried off; Liel Abada, Daizen Maeda and Giorgos Giakoumakis all reported to have various knocks; Callum McGregor drained after three hard physical battles where he played every minute for Scotland.

On top of that, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Carl Starfelt were known injury doubts pre-break.

Celtic, of course, have superior resources compared to those of more modest means such as Motherwell and should be expected to ride the waves of injury misfortune better than most.

But they need to have half an eye on the Champions League and the upcoming double-header with RB Leipzig. Not so much in terms of compromising on selection and strength of line-up, more in terms of allocating resources to meet both challenges and ensuring peak performance in both too.

In any case, Motherwell cannot be taken lightly and should be afforded all due attention. They were certainly unlucky against Hearts and have already played superbly in winning 3-2 against Aberdeen at Pittodrie this term. 

On the opening day they won 1-0 at St Mirren – something Celtic clearly failed to do.

Attacking comparison

Motherwell have the third-best expected goals difference (xGD) in the league after the top two. They have 1.78 xG for and 1.24 xG against. The Bhoys difference is 2.03.

As can be seen from the attacking radar comparison, the Hoops are creating over 20 shots per match compared to 15 by Motherwell, who rank fourth in the league on this metric.

What is noticeable about the Steelmen, though, is that they generate nearly as many clear shots – that is, attempts not covered by a defender – as Celtic (3.43 – 3.71).

Indeed, they rank third in creating big chances according to FotMob, which is to say opportunities that could reasonably result in a goal. Motherwell average 2.57 to Postecoglou's sides 3.43.

Well average 0.09 xG per shot compared to Celtic’s 0.12, and a look at their shot maps shows why:

That is a relatively low density of shots within the danger zone and too many outside the box and wide. The Scottish champions' shot quality is generally higher, along with their volume.

But Motherwell have perhaps the in-form striker in the division. Kevin van Veen averages 0.91 scoring contributions (xG plus xA) per 90 minutes. Only Matt O’Riley matches this, while just Abada exceeds it (0.99) in the whole league.

Creatively, Sean Goss is reliable and Blair Spittal evergreen. Ross Tierney, a young Irish player, is also an emerging talent for the Steelmen.

Celtic should have enough firepower, but this is a dangerous and in-form opponent.

Defending comparison

The Bhoys have perhaps the highest defensive line in the league, and Motherwell’s is a few metres deeper. 

They have gone with a back four all season, with new Scotland squad member Liam Kelly behind Paul McGinn, Sondre Soldheim Johansen, Ricki Lamie and erstwhile Scotland full-back Stephen O’Donnell now operating at left-back.

They give up over 12 shots per 90 minutes compared to Celtic’s 6.86. 

What is increasingly noticeable about Celtic in the Scottish Premiership – in stark contrast to European football – is that the quality of shots given up (0.43 xG and only 0.06 xG per shot) is consistently low. 

Motherwell, on the other hand, give up 1.24 xG per 90 and 0.1 xG per shot. 

The Steelmen have generally been using a 4-3-3 formation side over the last few years and that continues under Steven Hammell. The Hoops usually find it relatively easy to play through the Well’s attacking and midfield lines.

Last season the champions averaged 3.37 xG versus this opponent, and 19 per cent of forward passes took opponents out of the game versus a season average of 15 per cent.

Summary

While Hammell has improved Motherwell’s attacking efficiency – and has an in-form Van Veen spearheading – they remain vulnerable to teams able to pass quickly and directly forwards. 

This was not Celtic against St Mirren, of course, but Postecoglou is not learning-resistant. Expect Motherwell to score, but the league leaders should manage a few more in a relatively high-scoring encounter.