Celtic's 'self-inflicted' close scoreline assessed as underlying dominance laid bare

Kyogo Furuhashi's opener was pegged back by a Josip Juranovic own goal before Reo Hatate smashed home a long-range winner in the second half.

The Hoops hit the woodwork twice throughout the afternoon while they also lost captain Callum McGregor to a late red card.

Ange Postecoglou made four changes to the starting team from the shock 2-0 defeat to St Mirren prior to the international break.

Anthony Ralston, Aaron Mooy, David Turnbull and Liel Abada all dropped out with Juranovic,  Hatate, Matt O'Riley and Jota taking their places.

The manager was moved after the match to call the closeness of the scoreline 'self-inflicted' and a byproduct of the team's profligacy... so how is that assessment reflected in the stats?

Here, The Celtic Way highlights some of the key StatsBomb data from the game to give you a match report experience like no other.

xG/trendline

Jota's early chance from a Daizen Maeda cutback was the only real opportunity to punctuate the opening 15 minutes.

The Celtic trendline takes a massive jump thereafter when O'Riley's header (0.22 xG) was saved and then Kyogo's tap-in (a massive 0.92 xG) put the Hoops ahead.

McGregor - leaning back and slightly off balance - firing over in the 21st minute was the only attempt between the 15th minute and the half-hour mark.

Indeed, Celtic had four such creative plateaus during the game despite their ample cumulative xG total.

The Motherwell trendline barely got off the mark with their 'best' chance Stuart McKinstry's blocked shot in the 79th minute.

Statistically, Celtic enjoyed nine of the 10 'best' chances of the game with Kyogo's opener the highest-rated xG of the match. At the other end of the spectrum, Hatate's winner was a 0.02-rated chance.

StatsBomb records the final cumulative xG totals as 3.60-0.28 in Celtic's favour, suggesting that already we can see Postecoglou's analysis ringing true and the 2-1 scoreline was barely reflective of the chances each team created.

Accordingly, our data provider also suggests that Celtic would have won this game 98 per cent of the time based on chances created.

Shots

Celtic had 17 attempts at goal - the same as they generated against Shakhtar Donetsk in their last European outing - with 13 inside the box. Of those, eight came in close, central areas. A massive six attempts were of mid-to-high-quality xG.

The breakdown of the 17 efforts was as follows: six were on target, nine missed and two were blocked. Liam Kelly made four saves. 

Fourteen of the 17 attempts were created from open play with one from Juranovic's direct free-kick and two - including the winner - from corners.

Well managed seven attempts - not including the own goal - with only McKinstry's aforementioned shot breaching the 0.1 xG mark.

McKinstry's effort was the sole shot the Steelmen generated in the Celtic box while only one other even reached 0.05 xG - Kevin van Veen's miss from the edge of the D shortly after half-time.

Two of their seven efforts were on target, four missed and one was blocked. Joe Hart made two saves.

Hatate led the individual shooting charts with three alongside Juranovic and Kyogo, with the latter enjoying by far the best chances of the afternoon. Sean Goss was the only Well player to take more than one shot. Those two attempts amounted to 0.03 xG.

Possession, passing & positions

The pass network gives a sense of where the game was played and who was most involved. The warmer the colour the more influential the player, while the thicker passing lines the more passes between the players.

Against St Mirren, part of Celtic’s issue was a struggle to get Kyogo involved. This was not the case against Well, as denoted by his deep red node.

In practice the pass network - when taken with the shots and xG data - reinforces that the Celtic performance was certainly creatively sufficient enough to put the game to bed in a more emphatic manner. 

All of the starting XI, with the exception of Maeda, possess warm nodes with the general 2-4-4 shape - with O'Riley again the most advanced midfielder in the final third - further helping understand the dominance in terms of where the match was played out.

Comparing first half to second suggests a slightly less threatening second 45 from Celtic - and certainly that more of their play took place a shade further back - but of note is Hatate's node remains red-hot while substitutes David Turnbull and Liel Abada also enjoyed a good level of involvement.

Motherwell, although totally ice-cold, typically held their 4-3-3/4-5-1 shape well enough with Van Veen perhaps deeper and less of a focal point than they would have liked. Dean Cornelius - the centre of the midfield three - showing as slightly further forward is likely a byproduct of his attempts to stick with McGregor and disrupt Celtic's flow.

The games against Real Madrid and Rangers had marked an oddity in Celtic displays in that they did not enjoy the most possession. Shakhtar marked a return to ball dominance with 56 per cent while the St Mirren game was an even larger 78 per cent. 

Here was more like the average domestic possession stats from last term and this with the Hoops having 69 per cent of the ball.

Postecoglou's men completed 567 of their 659 pass attempts (86 per cent) while the Steelmen passed at a poor 63 per cent (185 of 295).

Eight Celtic players registered a key pass including three substitutes - Abada, Mooy and Turnbull - with the former joining Jota and Maeda with a game-high two.

Pressing and defending

Celtic made fewer pressures (93 vs 157) pressure regains (15 vs 25) than Well which marked the second match in a row with such a statistic. The 15 regains was, intriguingly, one fewer than the St Mirren match and thus the lowest amount the Hoops have registered this season to date.

Individually, while Motherwell players such as Connor Shields and Barry Maguire dominated the pressures charts, O'Riley topped the Celtic-only list with 12. Hatate followed with 11 and Kyogo with 10. O'Riley and Hatate - along with Maguire and Blair Spittal - topped the counter-pressing stats with five apiece.

In what could be termed the 'traditional' defensive metrics, O'Riley's endeavour is reinforced.

Matt O'Riley's successful defensive actions map v Motherwell (Image: StatsBomb)

Even on an afternoon in which he struggled to impose himself creatively (zero key passes. zero passes into the box and 64 per cent pass accuracy) the Dane nonetheless put in his off-ball work and in addition to his pressing stats he tallied two tackles, two interceptions, a clearance and three aerial wins. 

Elsewhere, Moritz Jenz may not have had a lot to deal with in terms of Well's creative threat but he still racked up a tackle, two interceptions, eight clearances and seven aerial wins while not being dribbled past all afternoon - the latter of which is an honour bestowed only on the German and Taylor from the Celtic ranks.