Celtic’s recent dip in form has not been all that unusual within the context of typical ebbs and flows of a long 55-plus game season.
However, the loss of captain Callum McGregor for an extended period introduces new and additional risks. Yes, his role as captain relative to leadership may be a factor to some degree but it is his considerable skillset and ability to play within Ange Postecoglou’s system that brings far more concern about his absence.
Many have debated which role is better for McGregor. I have been a strong advocate for him persisting in the ‘quarterback’ position as the singular and deepest-lying midfielder in Postecoglou’s attacking 4-3-3.
McGregor has offered largely competent defensive and pressing performance levels to the position but it has been his work on and off the ball relative to build-up and attacking which has truly made a difference.
His ability to combine much of the skillset of a defensive midfielder with that of an attacking midfielder makes him an excellent fit for the demands of the position. The team performance Saturday against St Johnstone highlighted some of the difficulties Celtic may encounter in his absence.
The first two radars compare Matt O’Riley and Reo Hatate’s performances on Saturday via on-ball value (OBV) with McGregor since he was installed as the primary defensive midfielder starting last September after that season’s summer transfer window had closed.
Obviously, this was just one game so this comparison is not intended to extrapolate anything into the future. Rather it, along with the rest of the data and information in this column, will help contextualize the value McGregor has brought to the position.
We can see that neither O’Riley nor Hatate had particularly good performances Saturday per OBV but it was the pass and dribble & carry OBV metrics that highlighted the challenge both face in trying to fill the hole left by McGregor’s absence.
This was further highlighted by comparing some team-level metrics:
Included are various metrics for the game against St Johnstone. These are compared with the season-to-date averages prior to Saturday’s game, last season’s league averages and then the same metrics in the two recent Champions League games against RB Leipzig and Real Madrid.
Unsurprisingly, something like possession was dominant versus St Johnstone but various other metrics indicated a less direct, less effective, less efficient and lower intensity performance.
Two of the aspects of play McGregor’s role impact heavily are the relative effectiveness of Celtic and opponents to progress the ball through midfield via passes and dribbles/carries. We can see how poor the related OBV metrics were against St Johnstone relative to the season average prior, as well as last season.
The inclusion of the two recent Champions League games offered additional context for Saturday’s performance, as Celtic’s passing was more effective overall against RB Leipzig (per pass OBV) with similar aggression (defined as the proportion of opposition passes received which are tackled, pressured, or fouled within two seconds). Obviously, the relative level of skills and athleticism between St Johnstone and RB Leipzig players was dramatic.
Compared to the performance against Real Madrid, Celtic’s inability to create much pressure against Madrid’s quality and composed back five was reflected in the very low aggression metric – but note that the pass OBV was similar to that which St Johnstone enjoyed Saturday.
In contrast, Madrid’s extremely high dribble & carry OBV reflected the likes of Vinicius Junior advancing the ball effectively that way versus via the pass.
Some additional context for McGregor’s ‘hybrid’ value in the role can be gleaned by comparing him to two of Rangers’ midfielders – John Lundstram and Ryan Jack – for their league games to date under their current manager Giovanni van Bronckhorst:
Here again we see the comparative value of McGregor’s passing and progressing the ball via the carry while still offering acceptable levels of defensive production – all while contributing significantly to Celtic’s attack as well.
So what is the solution to this quandary? Is there one? Unfortunately, no player in the current squad is likely capable of matching McGregor’s specific fulfillment in the role.
Perhaps the most widely mentioned is recent arrival Oliver Abildgaard. While his adjustment period and extremely limited minutes at Celtic to date make assessing him at the club far too premature, let’s take a look at his performance levels prior to joining.
For example, here was the ranking-based benchmarking analysis of his 2021-22 season in Russia I conducted back when he was signed:
We can see from that season’s data that his passing metrics did not suggest a player with the sort of ball progression skillset that McGregor possesses. Yes, his tackling and defensive work may exceed that of McGregor – and possibly to a considerable extent – but as Celtic look forward to the challenges presented by Leipzig is defensive prowess likely to be more important than build-up play given the Germans’ relative effectiveness in pressing and attacking in transition?
Similarly, are any of the other options better suited to balance defensive and pressing requirements with assisting a challenged back five in build-up?
I do not have any answers to these questions – but the hope is that Postecoglou does as Saturday’s performance was an initial warning that McGregor's absence may result in more of a damage-limitation situation.
After struggling through the first litmus test in Leipzig, the prospect of confronting the second for 90-plus minutes without McGregor is daunting.
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