Yuki Kobayashi Celtic transfer scouting: Why young centre-back would add 'exciting new dimension' to defence

The 22-year-old left-footed centre-back is understood to be in talks over a deal to become Ange Postecoglou’s fifth signing from the J1 League in less than 18 months.

Kobayashi would follow in the footsteps of Kyogo Furuhashi, Reo Hatate, Daizen Maeda and Yosuke Ideguchi in swapping Japan’s top tier for Glasgow’s east end. 

Here, we analyse the young centre-back to assess what he would potentially add to Celtic’s backline...

Player profile

Born in Kobe, Kobayashi came through the youth system at the club Celtic snapped Kyogo up from last summer, spending time on loan at second-tier Machida Zelvia and then with Yokohama FC in the 2020 J1 League where, at just 18 years old, he played alongside Celtic legend Shunsuke Nakamura.

Since then, he has become a regular with Vissel Kobe, making 22 appearances in the 2021 season before cementing his first-choice status with 31 outings in this season’s competition to date. He has also featured in the club's Asian Champions League campaign.

Capped on several occasions at under-20 level, Kobayashi has his sights set on becoming a full international sooner rather than later with a move to Europe likely to strengthen his credentials further. 

A left-footed centre-back, a very much sought-after profile in football’s modern-day market.

He has been deployed at left-back on a few occasions in the early part of his career but during the 2022 J1 League, which concludes this weekend, he has been used exclusively as the left-sided centre-back in the back four of Vissel Kobe’s favoured 4-2-3-1.

The above heatmap from this season's J1 League shows Kobayashi is very active on the left side of the defence with plenty of touches on the ball.

He is a key cog in the way Vissel Kobe build up from the back, averaging the third-highest number of passes per 90 out of the whole squad this season (56.17 p90).

At 6ft 1in, he is around an average height for a centre-back. He has a slender build, probably closer to a Mortiz Jenz physical profile than the stockier Cameron Carter-Vickers.

Powerful and pacey, though, he is a mobile and proactive defender who is strong in duels.

The above chart gives further insight into Kobayashi’s profile from his minutes played in the 2022 J1 League season. The chart uses Wyscout per-90-minute data converted into percentile ranks to compare him with other centre-backs (minimum 1,500 minutes played) in Japan’s top flight. It covers attacking, possession and defending metrics.

Despite Vissel Kobe enduring a disappointing campaign - they are currently 12th going into the last round of fixtures - Kobayashi has still managed to post some steady individual numbers, particularly in terms of possession.

Vissel Kobe have averaged just over 56 per cent possession in the J1 League, one of the highest in the division, so we would maybe expect to see Kobayashi perform strongly in these metrics.

However, his possession numbers are still particularly impressive and suggest he would be more than suited to a ball-dominant Celtic side.

As mentioned, he is among the most prolific passers per 90 in the Vissel Kobe squad. Compared to his league counterparts, he also scores highly (in the 80th percentile).

His accuracy is impressive too. He scores in the 80th percentile versus other centre-backs in the league and has the second-highest pass completion rate in the Vissel Kobe squad this season (89.64 per cent).

In terms of specific types of passes, he is just above average for the volume of forward passes attempted per 90 and just below for progressive. Encouragingly he ranks above average, in the 66th percentile, for his accuracy rate for both these types of passes.

Kobayashi also looks capable of progressing the ball through carries. He ranks just above average (in the 60th percentile) in this metric which combines progressive runs per 90 and dribbles per 90. Kobayashi has averaged 0.87 per 90 of the former and 0.23 per 90 of the latter this year in the J1 League.

Kobayashi will likely be tested more in a defensive sense if he does make the move to Scotland. Domestically, he will almost certainly come up against more physical forwards.

His chart suggests he will be up for that task with a solid set of defensive numbers. He has been involved in an average number of both defensive and aerial duels for a J1 League centre-back but, importantly, ranks highly for his win rate in both.

His aerial win rate of 66.67 per cent, the fifth best in the dataset, sees him rank in the 92nd percentile.

For context, last season Carl Starfelt’s aerial win rate in the Scottish Premiership was 59.85 per cent while Cameron Carter-Vickers’ was 66.2 per cent. Moritz Jenz's average in this season’s Premiership so far is 60.98 per cent. So even a slight drop-off in his win rate would see him rank comparatively to the current crop of Celtic centre-backs.

In terms of other defensive metrics, he ranks around the bottom quarter percentile for both shots blocked (0.39 per 90) but slightly higher for possession-adjusted interceptions (6.6 per 90).

Finally on his chart, in terms of a threat in the opposition box, Kobayashi has not offered too much in that regard this season.

He hasn’t found himself on the scoresheet, or assisted directly, but hasn’t had too many opportunities to do either, with a low rank for his expected goal contributions (a metric which combines xG per 90 and xA per 90).

He has found the net in his career on a few occasions though, notably getting on the end of a trademark pinpoint Nakamura corner-kick to score during his loan spell at Yokohama FC in 2020.

Given his decent height, he would therefore still add another set-piece threat to the Celtic squad.

Passing

Kobayashi's use of the ball is undoubtedly one of his main strengths. Calm and composed in possession, he is capable of producing accurate forward passes, including diagonals over longer distances, to progress the ball.

Here we can see an example of Kobayashi switching the play to the opposite side with an accurate diagonal ball to a teammate in space on the right.

He is equally adept at stepping up into midfield, drawing out opponents who may sit deeper.

Here we can see an example of him stepping into the opposition half to progress the ball.

Receiving a square ball from his centre-back partner, Kobayashi takes an aggressive first touch that draws the opponent in.

Showing just enough of the ball to tempt the attacker in, he then pops off an accurate pass out to a team-mate on the left wing with his weaker right foot.

Here we can see another example of Kobayashi’s passing over longer ranges, clipping a perfectly weighted ball down the line to get Vissel Kobe’s left back in behind the opposition.

The below graphic, which shows Kobayashi’s passes to the final third in Vissel Kobe’s recent J1 League victory over Sanfrecce Hiroshima, encapsulates his passing style quite well.

We can see several shorter balls out to the left, as well as a few successful switches of play over greater distances.

Ball-carrying

As seen in his chart, Kobayashi does not rank among the very top ball-carrying centre-backs in the J1 League. However, he still ranked above the 50th percentile and watching him more closely it is clear how effective he can be when travelling with the ball.

He is well-balanced, carrying the ball with confidence and authority. Here we can see an example of him driving out from the back with the ball.

Pressed aggressively by the opposition forward, he controls the ball with his right before taking a quick touch to the left to evade the striker.

He then drives through the left channel at pace, keeping the ball in close proximity throughout before being hauled down by the striker.

The next example demonstrates just how advanced Kobayashi is willing to travel with the ball, especially if not pressed – something domestic opponents tend not to do to Celtic’s centre-backs, often allowing them time on the ball as they fall back into a compact shape.

Here he receives the ball from Vissel Kobe’s deepest midfielder, who has dropped in between Kobayashi and the right centre-back to help the build-up.

After being allowed to carry over the halfway line, he initially shapes to play out to the left but then turns infield to change the angle of attack.

Moving into a central midfield position he then rolls the ball into the feet of the striker who drops deep off the opposition backline. The striker pops the ball back to Kobayashi as Vissel Kobe continue to probe but the passage of play demonstrates the young defender’s ambition on the ball.

Defending

Kobayashi has been defensively impressive in the J1 League in the last year, as seen in his chart.

He excels in duels but is also an intelligent defender who anticipates the opponent’s intentions well, positioning himself in the right areas of the pitch to put a stop to attacks.

He is generally composed in his defensive work and very rarely makes rash decisions. Quick enough over the ground, he is competent in covering space in behind too.

He can also be aggressive in his defending, such as in the above example. Here, he is on the front foot, reading the pass forward and then moving quickly to slide in and win the ball high in the opposition's half.

His defensive awareness has been evident from early on in his career, as the above example from his spell with Yokohama FC shows.

Here he is touch-tight as the attacker flicks the ball over his own shoulder to try and get in behind on the outside.

Kobayashi shows excellent strength though, getting his body in to outmuscle his opponent and usher him off the ball.

He is then very composed, side-stepping another opposition player who tries to nick the ball on the touchline before clearing his lines.

Conclusion

After last season’s winter arrivals played a key role in securing the Premiership title in Postecoglou’s debut season in Scotland, the Celtic manager has spoken of his desire to move quickly in the mid-season window again.

If Kobayashi’s arrival comes to pass it would be the first sign that Celtic are, just as the manager indicated, very much well ahead with their plans for the coming January transfer window.

At just 22 years old, he is young, especially for a centre-back, so he may take a little longer to bed in but he does appear to have all the attributes to be a success in Postecoglou’s system, with plenty of scope to develop further too.

A natural left-footer with excellent ability on the ball, he also has the potential to add a new dimension to the centre-back position as all four current first-team options currently available to the Hoops boss are right-footed.

Having a natural left-footed centre-back would certainly give greater balance to the centre-back position, opening up different possibilities in build-up phases.

He certainly ticks a lot of boxes and would be a fine addition to kick off Celtic’s January transfer window business.