The level of domestic league dominance Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic have displayed over the past year has been significant.
Since the 1-0 defeat at Livingston on September 19 2021, the Hoops have won 40, drawn six and lost just one game for an average points per game of 2.68, which works out at approximately a 102-point season rate.
Given this level of dominance, it is worth revisiting a comparison between the Australian's vintage (2.8 points per game overall so far works out to 106-point pace) with the very talented 2018-19 Celtic side.
The first radar compares a broad variety of team-level performance metrics, in which we see quite a number of similarities, though with this season’s vintage posting an extremely dominant xG differential of 1.81 along with 0.12 xG per shot.
Both groups of players were possession-dominant and had similar clear-shot figures. The 2018-19 side defended with more aggression, including with counter-pressing opponents, while this season’s side has played a bit more direct and with a higher average defensive line.
Of course, that team four years ago began the season with the mouthwatering prospect of Moussa Dembele and Odsonne Edouard potentially playing in the same starting XI.
Even with the departure of the former to Lyon, it remained rich with talent. For the remaining player comparison radars, each current Parkhead talents sample represents all their league games played to date under Postecoglou. For example: here is Kieran Tierney, who played much of the season carrying what turned out to be a significant injury, compared with his 2022-23 counterpart Greg Taylor:
We can see via the various on-ball value (OBV) metrics how, despite Taylor having played very well under Postecoglou, Tierney was unsurprisingly at a different level, and this was particularly true relative to passing and progressing possession via carries.
As we slide across the back four, next we have Kristoffer Ajer versus Carl Starfelt and Dedryck Boyata versus Cameron Carter-Vickers.
The Norwegian played the season, despite it having been his second after returning from his loan season at Kilmarnock, as an extremely young player. We can see that both offered an overall OBV level within the range of average for their positional peer group across all men’s competitions covered by StatsBomb.
Carter-Vickers and Boyata were somewhat comparable overall, though the Belgian's defensive action value was quite high for a Bhoys defender, while the former Spurs man offered better finishing.
As we move to the right-back position, we compare a then-ageing Mikael Lustig with Josip Juranovic:
We can see what many of us may remember reflected in the Swede's defensive action OBV: a player who had grown to become somewhat error-prone as his pace slowed. However, his passing and ability to carry the ball remained excellent, which resulted in his overall production still exceeding Juranovic’s to date by a fair amount.
Taking one step back to the keeper position – this may be a surprise to some – and Scott Bain had an excellent league campaign that season:
The ex-Hibs player's shot-stopping was very good once he supplanted Craig Gordon as the number one keeper, though other facets of his keeper play, such as claiming crosses, were poor.
Joe Hart’s shot-stopping has been about in line with what was expected, while he has also struggled with those other facets for around an average Goalkeeper OBV level.
Despite Bain’s higher production over his 21-plus league games that season, a reasonable case can be made that the 2018-19 team had higher levels of talent in four of the five positions reviewed in this column.
Considering the transfer proceeds secured for Tierney and Ajer, as well as the one rumoured to have been passed over for Boyata in the summer of 2018, that does not seem to be a controversial declaration.
Lustig versus Juranovic is likely a stretch given the former's age that season – but he had become somewhat diminished off of what had been a pretty high talent level beforehand.
The 2018-19 Celtic side conceded just 20 goals, which worked out to 0.53 versus the 0.58 in xG conceded, while Postecoglou’s men have averaged 0.66 versus 0.51.
Next week, we will take a look at the midfield and attacking positions and explore the following question: has the ex-Socceroos coach been coaxing out better overall performance levels despite having less talent?
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