Matt O'Riley's coming-of-age Celtic stint assessed - Alan Morrison

The Hoops has a plethora of natural holding midfielders, or sixes as they are known. James McCarthy, Yosuke Ideguchi, and Oliver Abildgaard would all consider that their natural role. Aaron Mooy, entering the veteran stage of his career, is also a candidate for sitting back into the deep playmaker position.

However, it was to 21-year-old Matt O’Riley that Ange Postecoglou turned to plug the hole the captain left.

As we enter the prolonged World Cup break, the Dane has completed 11 games (891 minutes) in this new role. According to TransferMarkt, he played 13 matches for MK Dons and a further 15 for Fulham's under-21 side in this defensive midfield position. 

He is a novice then, but his run of games included three Champions League ties which is a big step up from the Fulham youth side.

So how does O’Riley as a pivot compare to Celtic's much-trophied captain? Let's take a look...

Defending

We’ll start with defensive responsibilities. This role is, after all, a shield for the back four and the last point of defence before the final line is engaged.

Here we plot defensive actions success rate (DASR) and possession won from defensive actions, two highly-aggregated metrics concerning defensive actions:

While they have very similar DASR, McGregor is more secure in winning possession when he commits to his defensive actions. He secures possession with 72 per cent compared to 58 per cent for the Dane, a significant difference.

There are a couple of supplements to this, however. One is just the sheer volume of activity.

O’Riley is involved in hugely more defensive actions than McGregor. This may be due to him being younger and covering more ground and it might also reflect that McGregor is more experienced in a positional sense, so doesn’t need to engage in so many tackles, for example. The upside for O'Riley is that he forces more opposition turnovers.

The pack recovery score indicates the number and position of opponents taken out of the game by forcing them to turn over the ball. That is, after the ball is turned over, how many opponents are out of the game (being the wrong side of the ball to defend their goal)?

McGregor seems the more secure defender and indeed his overall possession effectiveness index (what percentage of all actions result in Celtic keeping the ball) is 90 per cent compared to 84 per cent for O’Riley.

With the Dane, you get more dynamic defending; it is more 'in your face' and forces increased opposition turnovers. O’Riley will, of course, turn the ball over more often himself in this role too though.

Ball progression

For this, the number of pack passes and the number of ball carries has been plotted (progressing the ball at feet) per 90 minutes.

This is McGregor’s sweet spot. Not only is it about the volume of progressive passes (forward passes) and ball carries, it is the speed at which he executes.

The Scotland international is in perpetual motion and has perfected the ability to position body shape to receive while being on the move already and having scanned the pitch to assess the next pass or action.

O’Riley is a little more static and ponderous in this regard. Not only is he a bigger and heavier player, it ultimately comes down to experience. The Bhoys captain has learned this role over the course of seasons. 

The ability to be the link from the defence to the attacking players is a key one and McGregor is much smoother in operating that aspect of the role.

Creativity

Here we plot chances created and expected assist value per 90 minutes – essentially, chance volume and quality.

While McGregor created slightly more chances, O’Riley’s are, on average, of better quality. These are only chances created from open play and therefore chances created from set-pieces, which the captain does not generally take, are not included.

These numbers would be a long way below the Dane's creativity if he were a number eight.

Last season his numbers were 2.75 (1.21) chances created and 0.37 (0.17) xA from open play (this season as a pivot in brackets). Therefore, the team loses out not having O’Riley further forwards.

In terms of secondary assist volume and quality (a secondary assisting pass being the pass before a chance is created):

Here again McGregor has the edge in terms of both the volume of secondary assisting passes completed but also the final expected goal value of the chance that was attempted.

Goal threat

O’Riley is far more active in the final third than his captain.

He has 1.31 possessions in the opposition box compared to McGregor’s 1.07 and loses possession in the final third 4.65 times per game compared to just 1.51 for the Scot.

The 21-year-old has not scored this season but does attempt more shots (2.12 to 1.15) from the deeper position. The Dane’s xG is double that of McGregor’s (0.18 per 90 to 0.09).

Aggregating up the attacking threat metrics:

Expected scoring contribution is expected goals plus expected assists, while attacking threat score is an aggregate of many attacking actions such as shots on goal, chances created and possessions in the opposition box.

O’Riley has managed to provide more attacking threat than McGregor does from the deeper pivot position and a greater volume of attacking activity as well.

Summary

Over and above the data O’Riley, arguably the most intelligent footballer at the club after the captain, has shown immense promise in the pivot role.

In Champions League matches, he has had more of the ball than in the SPFL. This is due to the man-to-man approach many teams take to Celtic’s midfield domestically. Their Champions League opponents were content to let their players have the ball.

Additionally, the Denmark under-21 international has shown real leadership (this is, of course, not easy to see in the data) in recent stodgy matches against Dundee United and Ross County.

In both games, Celtic were at risk of dropping points. In these fixtures, it seemed evident in the second half particularly that O’Riley felt personally responsible to try to drive the team forwards.

He was involved in all four goals against the Tannadice club and seemed to use his disappointment of conceding the penalty against the Staggies as a positive motivator.

However the cold, factual data highlights that McGregor remains the safer option in this position. He is defensively more secure and, in the core aspect of the role, better at progressing the ball quickly. 

O’Riley did, it must be noted, manage to bring a higher volume and more all-action game to this role. In particular, he forces the opposition to turn the ball over more often. He provides a greater attacking threat while also undertaking a greater number of defensive actions.

Given O’Riley is 21 and McGregor 29, the Dane has significant growth and development to come. At O’Riley’s age, McGregor was on loan at Notts County trying to make it as an attacking midfielder. 

Simply put: would anyone be concerned if O’Riley had to fill in for the captain again?

What is also fascinating is where this leaves the more specialist pivots at the club. If O’Riley is so effective (albeit the captain will come straight back into the team) can Abildgaard, McCarthy, Ideguchi, and even Mooy hope to prosper in this role?

Those are good problems to have for the manager.

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