Celtic loanee Mikey Johnston grabbed his first goal in the Portuguese top flight with a stunning strike late last month. 

The winger's sublime opener, a powerful shot from just outside the box that flew past the goalkeeper, helped inspire loan club Vitoria Guimaraes to a narrow win against Primeira Liga rivals Famalicao. 

It was an impressive display from the 23-year-old in the 3-2 victory, which also saw him provide an assist, and it highlights what has been a productive start to his season-long loan in Northern Portugal.

Making his debut for Vitoria off the bench in early September, the Hoops academy graduate had to wait for his first start, which came in a Taca de Portugal win over Canelas 2010 in mid-October. 

His full debut brace in the Vimaranenses’ 3-1 cup success that day earned him his first league start the following week, and he has since gone on to clock up a total of 450 minutes of league action.

In total, Johnston has made nine appearances in Portugal, seven in the league and two in the cup, grabbing three goals and providing two assists before the break for the World Cup. 

Celtic Way:

He has been used in his favoured left-wing position, either on the left of the midfield four in Vitoria’s 5-4-1 or as the left forward in their 3-4-3 – he also played there as Vitoria manager Moreno switched to a 4-3-3 for their last game before the shutdown. 

To assess his early loan performances in greater detail, we can take a look at the former Scotland Under-21 international’s data. 

The dataset for this analysis includes all Primeira Liga wingers and attacking midfielders that have played at least 400 league minutes this season. Each metric is per 90, with all data sourced from Wyscout.   

It is clearly a very small sample of games at this stage of the season, with additional data required to draw more definitive conclusions. 

However, this can still give some greater insight into how the 23-year-old has performed for his loan club in the early weeks of the season.

Celtic Way:

Johnston’s combined 0.20 goals per 90 and 0.20 assists per 90 see him rank in the top quarter for goal contributions (0.4 per 90). 

It is worth noting that his assist number could be higher here, with other outlets crediting Johnston as setting up one of the goals in a 2-2 draw with fellow Celtic loanee Ismalia Soro’s Arouca in September. Wyscout only registers his one-in-the-win over Famalicao, though. 

Taking that into account, his goal contributions are still a bit of an overperformance at this stage, with his expected goal contributions lower at 0.19 per 90 (0.08 xG per 90 plus 0.11 xA per 90). 

Tracking if the Lennoxtown academy graduate can increase the quality of chances he gets to himself, as well as creating higher-value ones for others on a more consistent basis, will certainly be something to watch closely throughout the remainder of his loan. 

In terms of other attacking metrics, Johnston ranks below the 25th percentile mark for all except his touches in the box (1.6 per 90). He has averaged one shot per 90 with 20 per cent on-target, while he has produced 1.2 crosses per 90 with a 16.67 per cent accuracy rate. 

Celtic Way:

Those low ranks for his shots on target percentage and crossing accuracy are perhaps consistent with decision-making issues in the final third, as previously touched on for TCW by James Dailey. 

However, it is worth re-emphasising that this is still a small sample size, so again, it will be interesting to revisit once Johnston has racked up more league minutes for Vitoria.

Celtic Way:  

Unsurprisingly, given it is one of his strongest attributes, Johnston does rank well in the ball-carrying metrics. He ranks above average for the volume of dribbles (5 per 90) and his success rate (52 per cent), while he has also impressively registered 2.8 progressive runs per 90, which put him in the top quarter for all Primeira Liga wingers and attacking midfielders. 

For other possession metrics, he is just above the 25th percentile mark for progressive passes (three per 90), but in the 75th percentile for dangerous passes, a combination of key passes and through passes – Johnston has averaged 0.4 per 90 of the former and 1.2 per 90 of the latter so far in the league for his loan club. 

Defensively, Johnston has averaged 4.8 defensive duels per 90 with a 41.6 per cent win rate, one of the lowest in the dataset. A bit more encouragingly, he has registered 2.78 PAdj interceptions per 90, just below the 50th percentile, or ‘average’ mark. 

Described by Ange Postecoglou as an ‘outstanding talent’ just before making his loan move to Vitoria, it seems likely that the Scotland under-21 internationalist will get the chance to stake a claim for his place in Celtic’s 2023/24 squad next summer. 

The early signs are that his loan move to Portugal is having the desired effect, with Johnston starting to get the regular game time required. 

Although potential issues with decision-making can be seen again, there have been flashes of real brilliance from the Hoops academy graduate in a Vitoria shirt in the early part of the season.

Some of his biggest strengths, such as his dribbling, have shown through well in what is a highly technical and competitive league. 

Just as importantly, he appears to be enjoying himself on the pitch again. 

Since making his Premiership debut in May 2017, Johnston has shown signs of being a player with huge potential, but a lack of regular game time, as well as several significant injuries, has stalled his development at Celtic.

It is still early into his loan to draw definitive conclusions on his loan in Portugal, but it will be fascinating to see whether he can build on these promising early showings and put in top-level performances regularly across the rest of the season.

If he can, there is still every chance he can return to the Scottish champions next summer and realise his undoubted potential.

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