Last week’s column began a review comparing the current vintage of Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic with the talented 2018-19 treble-treble winning side.
At a team-wide level, the comparison was significantly tilted towards the current squad with the balance of goalkeeper and defensive players leaning more in the direction of the 2018-19 group of players.
Perhaps that should not be all that surprising given that side included three defenders who have gone on to be significant contributors in the top five leagues - Kieran Tierney at Arsenal, Dedryck Boyata with three seasons in the Bundesliga and currently at Club Brugge and Kristoffer Ajer in his second season at Brentford.
As we move forward on the pitch with the comparisons, let us begin with the captains:
The relative performance levels as measured by on-ball value (OBV) probably conform with many preconceptions of the two players, as Callum McGregor’s passing and ball carrying has been more productive, Scott Brown has a bit more defensive value and the current skipper's shooting is a drag.
Even with the Scotland international's poor shooting, his OBV was still materially higher than Brown's just a year removed from his player of the year 2017-18 season.
Continuing with the midfield, we have Matt O’Riley versus Ryan Christie, followed by Reo Hatate versus Olivier Ntcham/McGregor:
The 2018-19 team's midfield minutes were largely split between Christie and Ntcham outside of Brown and that season’s mainstay McGregor.
The O’Riley versus Christie radar shows the degree to which the Dane has provided significant value with his passing, while less so defensively or while carrying the ball.
The former Inverness man's season, which is ironic to look back on given the reputation regarding shooting he would later have, was dominated by the value he offered with his finishing and progressing the ball via carries.
Despite the apparent relevant disparity in stature amongst the Parkhead support, Ntcham’s season delivered a far higher level of OBV, even excluding the volatile shot component. His production even exceeded Hatate’s relative to defensive OBV.
The Hatate versus McGregor comparison offered a similar skew towards the 2018-19 team, with a significant advantage to the captain across OBV metrics (again with the exception of shooting).
The comparison at left wing provided the most dramatic tilt towards the current Celtic side.
Jota’s measurable output via OBV has been tremendous and Scott Sinclair had already started to decline quite a bit off of his stellar maiden season at the club.
Neither were defensive stalwarts but the former Benfica man's value via passes in the final third has been a true difference-maker.
Shifting over to the right wing, Liel Abada’s tenure at Celtic to date has been truly impressive, largely matching what was a player-of-the-year season by James Forrest in 2018-19:
The one component OBV metric in which Abada has struggled, defensive action OBV, may offer some insight as to why he has dropped down in the selection pecking order given Postecoglou’s focus on defending from the front.
Last, but certainly not least, is the striker comparison:
This offers a stark window into the contrast between the playing styles of the two teams, as this position in Postecoglou’s Celtic typically has limited time on the ball and is asked to defend more from the front.
Kyogo Furuhashi’s output has been of a high standard despite the relatively low level of involvement, whereas Odsonne Edouard’s 2018-19 season, and his entire Hoops career, was a story of accepting the good with the bad.
While his involvement was relatively high, his rates of turning over possession and being dispossessed suppressed those components of his OBV.
For some perspective, Edouard’s combined turnovers and dispossessions were higher than Jota’s so far at the Scottish champions, despite the former being on the ball about half as much.
What have we potentially learned from this exercise? One goal was to attempt to ascertain how much of the current team's league success has been due to player recruitment (i.e. talent) versus the implementation of Postecoglou's style of play against domestic opposition which - with the exception of Rangers - have a large talent deficit relative to the Hoops.
In total, there is a good case to be made that the 2018-19 team was the more talented side.
Tierney played much of the season injured and both Ajer and Edouard were still relatively early in their development curves given their ages that season.
Christie and Ntcham have gone on to productive tenures at Bournemouth and Swansea and Boyata has done the same at his subsequent clubs.
With better-timed player sales, the six players could have yielded aggregate transfer fees approaching £100million.
By comparison, the current crop of players’ demographics and pedigrees do not suggest a comparable level of talent. This assessment offers room for an optimistic outlook for the future as long as Postecoglou’s tenure and playing style remain at Celtic.
Dominance in the league may be durable - and even potentially increased if the talent level in the squad continues to be improved, which the manager has stated will be required in order to compete at Champions League level.
The 57-year-old has been getting an incredible amount of production out of the talent at his disposal.
The prospect of the Hoops revisiting 2018-19 levels, hopefully tailored to Postecoglou's style of play, should be an exciting one.
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