Do Celtic have a penalty problem? Alan Morrison investigates

Josip Juranovic saw the towering Thibaut Courtois save his effort in Madrid. Giorgios Giakoumakis missed the target in the recent win against Livingston.

My cognitive bias is that the Hoops miss many penalties and save few. I suspect many supporters of many clubs would think similarly.

So do the champions genuinely have a penalty problem?

There is only one way to factually find out. Bear in mind that penalties are relatively rare events in football and, therefore, sample sizes are small...

Penalties for

I have shot data going back to the 2017-18 season. In that time, Celtic have been awarded 55 penalties in 313 matches.

In total, 44 of them have come in Scotland (averaging 0.19 per match) and 11 in Europe (0.14 per match).

It should not be a surprise to be averaging fewer penalties in Europe against a better standard of opposition.

To find out the outcome, let’s look at the domestic conversion rate:

The Scottish champions have scored 32 out of 44 penalties, had 13 saved and missed two completely. That means their conversion rate is 73 per cent domestically. 

But what does good look like? The expected goals model tells us that 79 per cent of penalties are scored irrespective of who is taking them.

So, in Scotland, Celtic are scoring 73 per cent against an expected scoring rate of 79 per cent.

It is, of course, worth noting that the Hoops did win a shoot-out to clinch a Scottish Cup in the Covid-19 season to complete the fourth treble-treble.

How do things look on this front from a European perspective?

Familiar pattern? Yes, as Postecoglou's men have only converted 73 per cent of their penalties in Europe too.

That seems to be a consistent underperformance. However, can we qualitatively say that those misses were material?

Miss impact

To assess that, we need to consider the game-state and timing of each penalty.

Based on the score at the time and the minute of the match the penalty was awarded, we can see that only two of the 15 misses were not potentially impactful on the outcome.

Giakoumakis’s recent miss at Livingston when 2-0 up in the 84h minute was very low impact. Nir Bitton’s miss in the Scottish Cup against Raith Rovers with the Celts up 3-0 was similarly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Notable misses have included in a League Cup final against Aberdeen (Scott Sinclair), at 0-0 in the Glasgow Derby (Ryan Christie) and when 2-0 down away to Real Madrid (Juranovic).

Probably the most impactful miss in recent seasons was Giakoumakis’s 90th-minute attempt at home to Livingston with the score tied at 0-0.

Scoring impact

We can use expected points (xPts) to calculate what each goal adds to the points the team can expect to get out of the match up to the maximum of three.

The penalties scored with the most xPts resulting have been:

• Sinclair’s in the 33rd minute versus Dundee to go 2-0 up (1 xPt)
• Christie in the 78th minute to put Celtic 3-2 up against Aberdeen (1.25 xPts)
• David Turnbull’s 78th-minute effort to eventually beat Real Betis 3-2 (1.4 xPts)
• Juranovic’s 80th-minute effort against St Johnstone to put Celtic 2-0 up (1.5 xPts)

Penalties against

The Scottish champions have conceded 35 penalties over the period in question.

This equates to 0.13 per game in Europe and 0.11 in Scotland.

Celtic’s opponents have scored 28 out of 35 efforts, had six saved and had one miss the target (Liam Boyce's attempt last season for Hearts).

That means the opposition teams are converting 80 per cent of penalties – slightly more than the benchmark 79 per cent average.

This average applies to both domestic (20 out of 25) and Europe (eight out of 10). 

Remarkably, Fraser Forster saved five out of seven including the vital League Cup-winning stop against Rangers in December 2019.

Scott Bain saved two out of six, Vasilis Barkas none from three, Gordon none from nine and Hart none from nine too.

The most impactful penalties conceded were:

• Lewis Ferguson's 90th-minute equaliser for Aberdeen during the 2020-21 season (1 xPt)
• Sam Cosgrove’s game leveller in the 83rd minute for the Dons in 2018 (0.95 xPts)
• Lawrence Shankland’s 63rd-minute equaliser for Hearts this season (0.9 xPts)

Player stats

Over the six seasons on record, here are the individual player records for Celtic players:

Unlike some clubs who have had the same penalty takers for many seasons, the Parkhead side has not had a reliable taker since, arguably, Moussa Dembele.

Juranovic and Odsonne Edouard have both bettered the 79 per cent benchmark but no others have that have taken more than one.

Summary

The perception of Celtic being below par on penalties is backed up by the data.

Compared to the industry standard 79 per cent success, Celtic have converted just 73 per cent over a six-season sample. Meanwhile, their opponents are slightly over par at 80 per cent.

Apart from Forster, the Hoops have also lacked a consistent saver of penalties. There has also been a lack of a regular taker, and this would inevitably help (but, please, not Callum McGregor).

READ MORE FROM THIS AUTHOR:

• Inside Celtic's finishing problem
• Matt O'Riley's coming-of-age Celtic stint assessed