The first column I ever wrote for this website laid out a conceptual framework for analysing football clubs from a top-down perspective.
'Expected trophies' may be worth reading for new subscribers and/or revisited by existing ones as this article addresses some of the topics. The change in management team at Celtic’s most significant domestic rival offers a good catalyst for this.
In a league which is functionally a two-horse race, as long as none of the smaller clubs adopt a more progressive and innovative operating model, we can narrowly monitor some main variables for the expected trophies concept.
With fiscal year reporting season having just concluded, we can compare the relative wage bills for the Hoops and Rangers for last season, found on pages 61 and 42 of the respective reports.
Despite significant differences in fiscal management between the two clubs, total staff costs for the season were relatively close at £58.88million for Celtic and £54.80million for Rangers.
To place this into some perspective, here are some relative staff costs since the Ibrox side's arrival in the Premiership:
It can be seen that the relative disparity remained significant, if trending smaller, up until the 2020-21 season. I also included a footnote with Aberdeen’s staffing costs for last season in order to offer context as to the massive gulf with the rest of the league.
StatsBomb’s data for the SPFL Premiership began for the 2018-19 season. Here is a comparison of the two teams using broad performance metrics for the season:
We can see from the report that the main disparity which tilted things significantly towards Celtic was defensive, or the ability to limit opponents’ chance creation.
StatsBomb has a report which breaks down expected goals for and against by minute, on average, for each season. Here was the 2018-19 season:
With various factors systemic for the league, such as relative fixture congestion and weather, for instance, there tends to be some correlation between teams. But this graphic offered another view of the persistence of Celtic’s advantage in quality. As we move forward in time, and as the gap in wage bills closed, these relationships also closed. Here was the 2019-20 Covid-shortened season:
Once again, we see the high correlation and the Hoops' defensive prowess having carried the day with Rangers’ attacking output having caught up significantly.
Moving forward to the disappointing 10-in-a-row campaign in 2020-21:
Here the script was flipped for defending as Rangers were consistently the more robust defensive team, but another element appeared. Despite the correlation having remained high, the lack of supporters at games may have contributed to a shift in when chances were created to later in games on average.
Another significant variable between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons was the large swing and disparity in two dramatic officiating-centric factors: red cards and penalties.
For the 2019-20 season, Celtic had five penalties versus three to their opponents, with one red card versus six by opponents. Rangers were three versus two in penalties and three versus three in red cards.
The 2020-21 season resulted in seven versus five penalties and three versus zero red cards for the Hoops and 10 versus one penalty and zero versus six red cards for the Ibrox side.
Ange Postecoglou's team reclaiming the Scottish Premiership in the 2021-22 season brought with it another interesting disparity:
While Celtic’s relative dominance in the broad metrics was apparent, the correlation in attacking output broke down for the season between the two teams. In fact, the Parkhead side's output was oddly distributed relative to the other seasons for either team.
My theory on this related to the adoption of Postecgolou’s intense playing style with a relatively thin squad that incurred a large number of injuries.
With increased squad depth and what has so far been a reduced injury rate, the correlation so far this season has returned:
This exercise has offered further evidence of the degree to which relative wage bills are paramount in driving team performance levels. However, it is not singular.
Next time, we will delve more into the other two conceptual components laid out in the expected trophies framework which, in a two-horse race with relatively close wage bills, win and lose trophies: recruitment and managerial decisions.
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