Reo Hatate, Aaron Mooy and the Celtic quadrant of doom - Alan Morrison

Although providers such as Opta and StatsBomb have been around for many years, the democratisation of data availability is relatively recent. Now, sites like FBRef and FotMob make a wide range of stats available to all.

Anyone can track a large range of data points for all their favourite teams, and England too. For example, Rodri of Spain had 147 successful passes per 90 minutes, 24 more than the nearest player, Aymeric Laporte (also of Spain).

Iliman N’Diaye of Sheffield United and Senegal is second to Germany’s Jamal Musiala for the number of successful dribbles per 90 minutes with four compared to 6.6 by the talented young Bayern Munich star.

And on and on it goes...

One of the problems with all this is, of course, the relatively small sample sizes and how one blowout performance, such as Spain’s 7-0 win over Costa Rica, can therefore influence the numbers.

READ MORE: The Celtic shooting trend that could make difference in treble tilt

Indeed, the Germans do very well in the individual stats categories yet were one of the first teams to be eliminated.

If we focus on expected goals, this effect can be seen in that Kai Havertz of Germany leads by this category, with the top five behind him of Marcus Rashford (England), Andreas Cornelius (Denmark), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (Uruguay), and Goncalo Ramos (Portugal). All had stellar individual performances in one game.

For such small sample sizes, the concept of average xG per shot is probably more useful. That and shots attempted gives you a measure of quality and quantity. Using simple shot counts sees the likes of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe make the lists.

This brings me to the framework to assess shot effectiveness for Celtic players using a similar method.

Shot effectiveness

Assessing all matches played so far, the chart below plots the average volume of shots taken per 90 minutes with the average expected goals value per shot. This provides a view on quality and quantity.

The data is split into four quadrants. There is a strong correlation between your role in the team and which quadrant you end up in.

All the defenders align into the bottom left quadrant. This is the valley of low-volume shooting and poor-quality (in relative terms) shots attempted.

Central defenders’ chances usually come from corners and set-pieces which, intrinsically, have lower xG values because the defence is usually heavily populated and densely packed. 

Full-backs often take potshots from distance or, in the case of Anthony Ralston, contribute headers from corners where the average quality is low.

There is no harm in this distribution with Josip Juranovic’s numbers boosted by taking penalties. Of more interest are the midfielders, wingers and forwards.

Celtic’s creative midfielders do not, generally, take good-quality shots. Reo Hatate and Aaron Mooy, in particular, feature in the quadrant of doom (the bottom left). We tend to remember the few long-range screamers that find the old top bin and forget the 100 failures preceding.

Callum McGregor is arguably the worst of the lot and, at 29 years old, it is unlikely his shooting method will improve much. He simply has a poor physical shot-taking technique, which is another reason not to want him anywhere near penalties.

David Turnbull and Matt O’Riley at least attempt a higher volume of shots but their average quality is lower than Mooy and Hatate’s. 

The wingers are where the greatest variance is. Top right is golden child Liel Abada whose shot selection, mainly due to the excellent positions he takes up, is more commensurate with a striker. Daizen Maeda also has a high shot quality average but tends not to be as involved. 

READ MORE: The Celtic Creatives with Alan Morrison... Assist Kings

While Sead Haksabanovic has excellent creative stats (more of that to come in the next article), shot-taking appears to be a weakness as he too falls in the 'must do better' quadrant. Jota’s shooting is often excitable and this is reflected in him also sitting below the quality line.

The two strikers lead the team in both volume and average shot quality, which is a relief.

Giorgos Giakoumakis takes more shots but Kyogo Furuhashi’s tend to be from better positions on the field. He is the only player this season whose average xG per shot exceeds 0.25.

Celtic's strikers tend not to be as involved as those of yore. For example, in the season Leigh Griffiths scored 40 goals, he was averaging over six shots per game. Even Odsonne Edouard, more of a hybrid striker/number 10, averaged well over five.

Summary

One can, of course, move the lines on the chart to change the 'average' but the point is made that, in general, the Hoops could do with an increase in shot effectiveness across the squad.

This is particularly true of attacking midfielders and wingers. Abada is the shining exception to this and the case could be made for him becoming a striker one day.

Fundamentally, as Celtic strikers are generally on the ball less often than those operating under previous managers and playing styles, it is incumbent on the supporting attack to improve shooting efficiency.