Celtic & parking the bus: Why latest furore could benefit Hoops

Their performance was undoubtedly an eyesore for those who enjoy a more open and attacking game but was Jim Goodwin’s decision to confront the significant challenges presented by Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic overly cynical? Was there any potential merit to playing that way?

As a recent column referenced, the Hoops' staffing costs have run at about a rate of six times that of the Dons while the Pittodrie club's has been about three times the rate of St Mirren. That is a huge structural advantage when it comes to the level of talent available for recruitment.

Through the lens of the 'expected trophies' concept, one could reasonably expect Aberdeen to have a superior opportunity to compete against Celtic relative to the Buddies.

The table above compares results-oriented metrics per game starting in the 2016-17 season for the Dons (the initial season when Celtic's spending level ramped up towards current levels) and upon St Mirren’s return to the top flight in 2018-19. The Aberdeen sample included the various cup games, which was why the 'points' heading is in inverted commas for that particular column.

One can see from this comparison that the relative outcomes between the two clubs versus the Hoops have been skewed heavily in the Buddies' favour, particularly when taking into account the disparity in finances.

Obviously, playing styles have not been exact over the timeline as managers and tactics have changed. 

Aberdeen were generally far more progressive over the sample period as well as having had a number of players who are now playing at much higher levels.

In contrast, St Mirren have played a significantly more defensive style against Celtic over the sample period. Both sides have struggled mightily to score against the Parkhead team but Aberdeen have actually conceded three goals or more at a higher rate than St Mirren.

How daunting is it for a team to try to score three goals or more against Celtic to try to earn a result? The Pittodrie club achieved it once over the period, aided by two penalties having been awarded in a 3-3 draw in the 2020-21 season. Is a club like Aberdeen more likely to win or draw against Celtic in games with 3-3/3-2 score lines or 0-0/1-0?

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Other managers, such as Callum Davidson and Steve Clarke, have had relative success competing both against Celtic and other clubs with far more resources than those they managed through playing very defensive tactics.

At one stage Clarke’s 2017-18 Kilmarnock side earned a 0-0 result versus Celtic in a game in which they took no shots. Their home pitch likely offers them some specific advantages while Livingston playing under David Martindale have also had relative success versus Celtic and Rangers through playing defensively.

Of course, none of this speaks to the entertainment value, fan satisfaction or the spectacle of playing such defensive tactics. But fundamentally is playing like this a reasonable strategy for a team like Aberdeen?

To examine this question further, here are some advanced metrics to compare Celtic’s sole loss this season against St Mirren with Saturday’s 1-0 victory over Aberdeen.

While both teams played ultra-defensively, some notable differences were evident in the data.

For example, the defensive distance and aggression metrics suggested that St Mirren did not play as deep as Aberdeen and were more intense in their defending. That is also reflected by the disparity in defensive action OBV with Aberdeen having over double the amount, signifying the high value of defending they did so close to their own goal. 

In addition, the Paisley side's pass OBV metric indicated how much more effective they were playing directly, which both teams did when attempting to counter-attack. Neither side were effective at creating chances from open play but, as the proportion of clean sheets shown above suggests, doing so and scoring against Celtic should probably not be expected often.

In the St Mirren game, they happened to convert one of their rare chances from open play while Aberdeen had this chance on Saturday:

After capitalizing on an errant Carl Starfelt header, Matty Kennedy was played in wide one-v-one against Greg Taylor. He proceeded to draw Reo Hatate towards him to create space for his team-mate in a threatening area.

That was the type of sequence that is relatively rare for Celtic's opponents, particularly facing the current iteration under Postecoglou.

In order to have a more reasonable probability at securing a result, opponents must convert such sequences into quality scoring chances.

Fortunately for Celtic, in this instance, Kennedy floundered in possession, did not make the pass to his team-mate and was subsequently dispossessed by Taylor. 

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St Mirren’s first goal came via a cross ball from open play, which had been enabled by a lucky bounce off of a deflection from a Hoops player. Their second goal came off of a four-time headed long throw-in. In contrast, Aberdeen's big set-piece opportunity resulted in a ballooned shot over Celtic’s crossbar. 

While doing so may be unpopular with many, there is a reasonable case to be made for the likes of Aberdeen, Hearts and Hibernian deploying such defensive tactics against Celtic. This is particularly true if and when they have goalkeepers with quality shot-stopping skills.

Given the amount of criticism Goodwin has endured in the aftermath of Saturday’s game, the hope for Celtic should be that those teams are disincentivized from making future attempts at playing in that manner.

Why? Because then the Postecoglou juggernaut may continue to feast upon the more 'progressive' approaches.