Daizen Maeda's electric post-World Cup Celtic form assessed

Goals on either side of half-time at Parkhead secured a straightforward 2-0 win that maintained the hoops’ 100 per cent home record in the Scottish Premiership.

Jota bagged his first goal since November to open the scoring with the second an own goal from Killie defender Ash Taylor.

His first goal since a consolation free-kick in Bernabeu against Real Madrid, Jota’s opener came from a Daizen Maeda cross after the Japan international had latched onto a brilliant through ball from left-back Alexandro Bernabei.

The assist from Maeda in the win over Killie, Celtic’s 19th in 21 league games, made it three goal contributions in three outings for the former Yokohama F Marinos forward since returning from the World Cup.

His previous two came on the road, a stunning strike in a convincing win against Hibs at Easter Road and then a deadlock-breaking first derby goal at Ibrox last week.

This rich vein of form for Ange Postecoglou’s side follows an impressive tournament in Qatar, where Maeda started three of his nation’s four games and scored against Croatia in their last-16 tie.

But just how much has Maeda’s World Cup campaign with Japan boosted his form in green and white?

To the eye, he certainly looks more confident and, somehow, even more energised. Let's take a closer look...

The above graphic from StatsBomb gives an overview of Maeda’s data in the league season to date.

By comparing his data from before, and then after the World Cup, we can start to see the impact that his impressive showing on international football’s biggest stage has had on his club football.

Before the tournament in Qatar Maeda had racked up 663 minutes in the league. Since his return, he has played 358 minutes.

Of course, these are two different sample sizes so this will need to be considered in the context of this analysis.

That said, comparing these two sets of minutes can still give some insight into how his post-World Cup form stacks up against his performances from those earlier in the season.

The first, and one of the most significant changes that can be seen, is Maeda’s increase in his xG per 90.

Before the World Cup, he was averaging 0.21 xG per 90. Since his return, this has almost doubled to 0.41 xG per 90. 

As well as an increase in his overall xG, Maeda’s xG per shot has also seen an increase, up from 0.14 per 90 to 0.20 per 90.

The quirk when it comes to his xG per shot is of course his goal at Easter Road that came from his lowest xG shot in the league this season (0.03 xG) and followed him passing up one of the ‘best’ chances he has had all season just minutes before when he headed off the bar when free at the back post (0.34 xG).

Overall, this increase in getting to higher quality chances can be seen as the first piece of evidence in his numbers of a post-World Cup boost in form.

It has not come at the cost of providing for others either with his open play xG assisted at a similar level pre and post-World Cup, 0.26 per 90 before, 0.24 per 90 post.

Combing the xG and open play xG assisted metrics gave Maeda an overall ‘expected goal contribution’ of 0.47 per 90 before Qatar, more than respectable already. However, a total of 0.65 per 90 since his return starts to highlight further his post-tournament uplift.  

Other metrics that have increased include his volume of shots, up from 1.49 per 90 to 2.0 per 90. He has also taken more touches in the box, 9.30 per 90, up from 6.11 per 90 and won slightly more fouls, 1.09 per 90 before the World Cup, 1.76 per 90 since.

Interestingly the one metric that has seen another big change is Maeda’s turnovers. Before the World Cup, he was only turning the ball over less than twice per 90 (1.90 per 90).

However, since returning he has turned the ball over much more (5.78 per 90). This may well be down to Maeda’s increase in confidence leading to him taking more risks in possession, taking on his man more frequently, etc. Given the increase in his attacking output, it can be argued that this has been a worthwhile trade-off. 

That said, he has still managed to increase his successful dribbles, up over one per 90, 0.4 to 1.5, and there has been no impact whatsoever when it comes to his trademark work off-the-ball either.

Unquestionably already one of the strongest parts of his game, he has actually increased his already outstanding contribution out of possession in his post-World Cup games.  

Before the World Cup, he was averaging 3.66 pressure regains per 90. In his games since returning from Qatar, this has jumped to 5.78 per 90.

It is worth digging into his defensive numbers throughout the season to highlight again just how important his work off the ball is for this Celtic team.

Across all his league minutes, he has averaged 18.06 pressures per 90. Once adjusted for possession, this comes in at 30.77 per 90, the most possession-adjusted pressures of any player in the league that has played a minimum of 900 minutes.

His 4.41 pressure regains per 90 across the whole season to date are also unmatched in the league, among those who have played more than 900 minutes.

It is a similar picture when it comes to counter-pressing. Within the same minimum 900 minutes dataset, he ranks in the top ten for the volume of counter-pressures per 90 but is again unrivalled when it comes to regains (0.88 per 90).

Combining this league-leading defensive work off-the-ball with a World Cup-boosted increase in attacking output has arguably led to Maeda’s finest run of form in a Celtic shirt.

Given the relatively small sample size of the post-World Cup games, it is likely his numbers may level back out somewhat between now and the end of the season.

Even if they do to an extent, there is no doubt Maeda will continue to be a hugely influential player for Postecoglou for the remainder of the season.

In the meantime, the Celtic manager will also very much hope that recently reported English Premier League interest in his in-form forward does not come to anything before the end of this month.