Speculation and debate surrounding Giorgos Giakoumakis’s Celtic tenure and potential replacements have been pretty tense within social media circles over the past few weeks.

I last checked in on the big man in a piece last August, in which the case was laid out as to why the club would be wise to sell him during the transfer window if the then-rumoured fees of £15million plus were anywhere near accurate.

The basic premise of the column was that the primary driver of Celtic player performance levels domestically has been the relative financial advantage they enjoy - combined with the difficulty opponents have in overcoming that advantage - with the Hoops playing Ange Postecoglou’s style of football.

This column is intended to relieve any potential anxiety among supporters regarding Giakoumakis’s seeming departure.

One Scottish player whose name has been mentioned among the media speculation is Kevin Nisbet of Hibernian. He offers an interesting case study to further the analytical framework laid out in the August column. How good of a fit would Nisbet be and what could we reasonably expect from him compared to Giakoumakis?

This first radar compares traditional attacking-related statistical metrics for each player’s league games in Scotland.

Celtic Way:

As one would reasonably expect, Giakoumakis’ shot-related stats dwarf those of Nisbet, with the latter largely matching on chance creation for team-mates. The radar begins to offer clues as to how different strikers have been utilised under Postecoglou’s style of play at the Parkhead side, as they have generally been on the ball far less than prior Celtic iterations.

For example, during his tenure with the club, Odsonne Edouard averaged nearly triple the volume of open play passes in the final third as Giakoumakis has to date and even Nisbet edges the latter.

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For additional context, Hibernian have averaged 1.14 in xG and scored 1.17 goals per game over Nisbet’s time there, while Celtic have averaged 2.25 in xG and scored 2.69 goals over Giakoumakis’s. Both players' average xG contributions are nearly identical at around 31.5 per cent of their respective team levels over their tenures. 

Next, here is an on-ball value-focused radar for the two:

Celtic Way:

Per the analysis in the August column, it could be argued that the OBV metrics offer some insight into players’ idiosyncratic value in playing the role within the style of play asked of them by their managers.

Here we can see that Nisbet’s passing, defending, and dribble/carry-related OBV metrics are superior to Giakoumakis's. In fact, the Greek's metrics rank poorly relative to other strikers, which has made those apparent weaknesses a good match for Postecoglou’s style of play, it could be argued. Basically the less he touches the ball, the better. 

Celtic Way:

Both offer decent shot-related OBV, but the types of shots vary widely depending upon the team's style of play and individual player strengths and weaknesses.

Celtic Way:

Celtic Way:

These two shot maps show Giakoumakis’s distribution of non-penalty shots taken more than 12 yards from goal and within 12 yards from goal. The ratio is 60 shots out of 85 total from within 12 yards, or about 71 per cent, with an average xG per shot of 0.217 overall (including corners, etc) and 0.245 from open play. 

Now Nisbet over his time at Hibernian:

Celtic Way:

Celtic Way:

Nisbet’s ratio of shots within 12 yards is 53 shots out of 172 total, or about 31 per cent, with an average xG per shot of 0.233 overall and 0.254 from open play. So as we can see, his utilisation and shooting at Hibernian were completely different from Giakoumakis’s at Celtic.

Indeed, if we focus just on the types of chances Nisbet has had which are more similar to those he’d be likely to enjoy were he to play for Celtic under Postecoglou, Nisbet’s been the more productive player.

The intended point of this analysis is not to suggest that Nisbet is or is not a better player than Giakoumakis. Rather, it is to provide further context to the importance of performance attribution.

As long as Celtic’s huge financial advantage continues and the club persists with Postecoglou’s style of play, most motivated strikers who can competently finish chances within 12 yards of goal, and at the relevant wage bracket, should suffice. This is good news.