Celtic January transfer window verdict: Lawwell-ball days are gone

Since that initial chaotic arrival in June 2021 – when many experienced players wanted to leave, a new chief executive was hired then left and the board arranged some ‘helpful’ deals to bolster up a fragmented squad – there is no doubt the Australian has imprinted his own style on Celtic transfer dealings.

‘Lawwell-ball’

Whatever your feelings about ex-CEO Peter Lawwell, and I  prefer to take a balanced view, there were certain characteristics of the way he dealt with transfers.

Some might say he was too ‘hands-on’ and relied upon a small core of trusted agents to source players for his managers that fitted criteria wider than the playing style, namely the financial profile.

Transfer windows were characterised by late deals and occasionally by surprises for the manager. Colin Kazim-Richards, Carlton Cole and Marian Shved anyone?

There is no doubt Lawwell drove a hard bargain when players left though. Celtic have had a surplus of inbound transfer fees over monies spent for many years now.

The player trading model has been alive and well at Celtic Park for more than a decade. Since 2007-08, £22million has come in more than spent. Postecoglou’s first season saw over £40m arrive to fund his rebuild.

You can argue that Celtic have underperformed in player trading compared to similarly sized clubs land-locked into relatively impoverished leagues. They do not habitually receive the £15-40m fees of an Ajax or FC Porto for instance. This, in turn, allows many more £9m ‘punts’ on talent like Odsonne Edouard.

So, neither the model nor the aims have fundamentally changed… but the methods within it have.

Inbound

Celtic have acquired the following in this window:

Drafting in four players is a relatively sedate affair compared to nine in the summer and 19 last season. A number of features are different now about how Celtic do business under Postecoglou and current CEO Michael Nicholson.

Timing

Early is preferred. This is easier with many of the Asian football markets whose calendars run January to December for their league seasons.

It means the Scottish January window is post-season for the likes of Japan and South Korea.  Additionally, the Japanese market is very different to the European one. Most clubs seem to value player development and progression over club financial interest.

This means that contracts are often run down (like Yuki Kobayashi’s) or players can be available for relatively nominal amounts (e.g. Reo Hatate).

Also, the Japanese clubs are happy to put in place try-before-you-buy deals which act as a safety net for all parties should the player not settle or the deal not work out. Both Daizen Maeda and Tomoki Iwata have joined on this basis.

Postecoglou clearly has a solid knowledge of this market, good agent and club connections and a high reputation among the footballing community.

Celtic went back to the South Korean market for the young striker Oh Hyeon-gyu, a player the manager is apparently very keen on and has been for some time. This took longer to arrange but the club got there with plenty of time to spare in the window.

The signing of Canadian right-back Alistair Johnston was impressive both in terms of the timing (in the door and settled prior to the transfer exit of Josip Juranovic) and because of the use of new markets and contacts. This one may well be on Mark Lawwell and his City Group Rolodex.

Celtic got their business done early and, apart from Oh, the other three players have already bedded into Glasgow and the squad during January. Oh also came in before the player he is replacing (Giorgos Giakoumakis) has even left, action unheard of under the previous regime.

Concerns would be the reliance on Postecoglou and his agent Frank Trimboli for future success in the Asian football market. There needs to be succession planning to develop links and contacts in this market such that when the manager does leave, this remains a fertile hunting ground for talent.

Cost

Despite Rangers manager Michael Beale’s press-wide beefing about how ‘lucky’ Postecoglou has been to have money to spend this current window looks to have been managed such that a net inflow of funds occurs.

The right-back berth has been replaced for under £3m with a 24-year-old while selling a 27-year-old for £7.5m.

The support striker for Kyogo Furuhashi has been replaced at £2.5m for a 21-year-old while it looks as if 28-year-old Giakoumakis will depart for around £3.4m to £4.3m including add-ons.

Kobayashi was free and Iwata, the J1 League player of the season, is reportedly going to cost Celtic less than £1m.

In short, Celtic are doing smart business. Postecoglou has utterly revamped the playing staff and brought in a net inflow of nearly £10m on transfer fees alone (once the Giakoumakis deal is confirmed). Lucky, indeed.

Player style

This season’s Champions League campaign was a tough one for Celtic. There was some encouragement in the attacking third, for sure, despite the missed chances. But defensively and physically, Celtic were often outrun and outmuscled by teams with a potent mix of athleticism and skill.

Celtic are looking to beef up in that regard. Johnston already looks a more athletic option than both Juranovic and Anthony Ralston. Not possessing the raw speed of the Croat, the 5ft 11in full-back has a strong, wiry frame hued from cross-training playing ice hockey in his native land. Early signs are there won’t be much degradation of attacking intent either.

READ MORE: Be very afraid... Jota is back to his terrorising best

Iwata is a robust defensive midfielder; strong and stocky, but mobile. Capable of playing centre-back too, he has solid defensive instincts. And he likes a battle.

Kobayashi is over 6ft tall and, despite getting harassed by Curtis Main on his debut, led the team with 16 challenges and interceptions in the Scottish Cup match against Greenock Morton, eight more than the next highest player.

Finally, striker Oh is 6ft 1in and as seen briefly in cameo against Dundee United, will put himself about, to use the local vernacular. He is a hard-working determined and physical striker.

So, Celtic are muscling up.

Utility

The manager signposted a while back he was looking to get some flexibility into the squad such that different players can do different jobs.

Johnston can play as a right-sided centre-back in a back three, as a wing-back and as a right full-back. Iwata can play centre-back as well as defensive midfield.

Oh started his career as a wide forward before moving to central striker and scoring the goals that saved his ex-club from relegation.

Kobayashi is less flexible but left-footed, left-sided centre-backs who are actually any good are rarer than hen’s teeth.

This adaptability is something the manager has focused on and it will be fascinating to see how the utility of these players develops.

Player attributes

The other uniting factor regarding the players brought in is how important the non-data aspects of their personalities and characters are to the manager.

One press conference with Johnston will show you this is a seriously impressive young man who is intelligent, articulate and full of confidence. He made his debut at Ibrox and was happy to mix it physically and verbally all game long.

On Kobayashi’s debut, he did struggle to contain Main of St Mirren, but led the team with 95 overall completed passes and 33 pack passes that take opponents out the game. He was confident on the ball and had the most possessions of any Celtic player. As mentioned above, in his second outing he was the most dominant defensive player for Celtic. No shrinking violet, then.

READ MORE: Celtic's player trading model & the European football 'second class' transfer gap

We only saw Iwata for 45 minutes against Morton but what stood out immediately was his communication on the pitch. He was constantly gesturing and pointing where he wanted players to be and to go. That takes some confidence for a debutant at Celtic who likely does not know the language. He is also only 25.

Oh looked full of confidence and aggression in his short cameo versus Dundee United. The manager is thrilled to have him and part of the reason for that is his will power to get his move and his determination to succeed.

Postecoglou has explained he buys the man before the player and that is evident in this windows’ business.

Outbound

At the time of writing, the following have left the club or are highly likely to leave (the US window is open until April and so Giakoumakis’s proposed move to Atlanta United may take a bit longer than the rest):

* Note: Abildgaard’s exit is termed ‘loan return’ but the nature of his contract at Celtic was ‘temporary’ due to the FIFA regulations surrounding Russia’s war in Ukraine. You can read more about that here

On the positive side it looks like the club will post a profit on both Giakoumakis and Juranovic. The downside is that they are both leaving for less than is market rate in all likelihood. However, outside the English Premier League, the market overall remains relatively deflated so any fee is a bonus.

Celtic have also two of their oldest outfield players and replaced them with younger models. Postecoglou values experience hence the deals for Joe Hart and James Forrest. Callum McGregor, 29, will remain the captain but the net result will be to raise the overall saleable value within the squad.

The other side of the try-to-buy arrangement whereby if a move does not work out, there is an easy way for the parties to separate, has also been seen this window.

Mortiz Jenz was, in essence, no better than Scottish-born Stephen Welsh and so, despite being a regular for 19 matches and being ever-present in the Champions League, the German has moved to Schalke 04 for the remainder of the season from parent club FC Lorient.

Similarly, Oliver Abildgaard, while admirable defensively, did not show enough with the ball to be a challenger to McGregor in the pivot role. He is moving to Hellas Verona for the rest of the season.

Most tellingly, both players were replaced in the squad (by Kobayashi and Iwata respectively) before they left the club.

Summary

In summary, the squad composition is thus:

The trend is to make the first team squad younger (the average age is just over 26) and also cheaper. Another feature of the Japanese market is relatively low wages. All clubs need to be cognisant of UEFA Financial Sustainability Rules, not just those on a UEFA watchlist.

There remains much to do and there are now a number of players within the squad who do not appear to have a future under the current manager.

For the summer there will be a need to come to a solution for the like of James McCarthy, Yosuke Ideguchi, Vasilis Barkas, Liam Scales, Ismaila Soro, Albian Ajeti, Liam Shaw and Osaze Urhoghide.

Also, fans must get used to an increased churn in players. The manager has already signposted this as a way to increase turnover and therefore incrementally generate more funds to buy better players.

There remain weaknesses in the squad but that is one for another day. So long as there is gradual, incremental improvement it is OK to be satisfied.