Celtic and Rangers starting teams compared position by position

For the purposes of this comparison, let us assume both sides will utilise a nominal 4-3-3 shape.

In this instance, the line-ups are likely:

Celtic: Joe Hart; Alistair Johnston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Carl Starfelt, Greg Taylor; Callum McGregor, Reo Hatate, Matt O'Riley; Jota, Kyogo Furuhashi, Daizen Maeda

Rangers: Allan McGregor; James Tavernier, Ben Davies, Connor Goldson, Borna Barisic; John Lundstram, Nicolas Raskin, Malik Tillman; Fashion Sakala, Alfredo Morelos, Ryan Kent

Let's take it a position at a time...

Goalkeepers

This is a tricky position to analyse using data - especially in Scotland. Both sides are heavily dominant meaning their respective custodians are underutilised.

Both keepers are at the veteran stage of their careers and there are questions about each of them. With Hart, doubts remain about his suitability for a 'sweeper-keeper' role with high demands on ball skills. The recent match against Aberdeen saw two stray passes lead to half-chances for the Dons.

With McGregor, it is simply the march of time and whether he can perform at previous levels. There is not a lot between them by this data other than McGregor is in negative territory on shot stopping – that is, he is letting in more goals than expected. 

Another way of illustrating this is the number of goals conceded versus the expected goals (post-shot, meaning the xG value of the shot as it hits the target).

Strictly this is McGregor and Jon McLaughlin for Rangers. What this shows is that, on average, Hart is conceding 0.08 more goals per 90 minutes than the quality of the shots faced would indicate.

However, at Ibrox, the keepers are conceding 0.29 goals per 90 minutes more than expected. So, for this first position, it's advantage Celtic.

Winner: Hart (Celtic)

Right-back

Tavernier has been around long enough to rack up 50 penalties for the Ibrox side - and has also watched Celtic win a quadruple-treble. His comparator, meanwhile, is a newcomer to Scottish football in Johnston.

A fascinating one, this. The Rangers captain comes out on top in xG build-up, applying pressure to the opposition, conceding less fouls and successful dribbles.

Johnston comes out on top in aerial wins, not turning the ball over, passing accuracy, tackles won and not being dribbled past.

They are equal on interceptions and deep progressions. In the context of this game, where defenders are going to need to defend, Johnston has the stronger basic defensive performance data. He also edges the percentile comparison 6-5.

So, number two goes to Celtic as well.

Winner: Johnston (Celtic)

Left-back

Similar to right-back, we have an experienced player in the blue corner in Barisic and a much younger Celtic left-back in Taylor.

It's not straightforward again. The Croatian comes out on top in interceptions, pressures, xG build-up, successful dribbles and fouls conceded. The Scot has the advantage in not being dribbled past, tackling, passing accuracy, turnovers and aerial wins. 

In the overall percentile comparison, Taylor edges it 6-4 with one tie. He also scores better in the basic defensive aspects of the game.

Winner: Taylor (Celtic)

Right centre-back

It's a pair of quality players here as Carter-Vickers takes on Goldson; arguably the two best Scottish Premiership centre-backs.

Strangely it's also another mid-20s Celt versus a 30-something Ibrox player. What does StatsBomb say?

The more experienced Goldson comes out tops in pressures (a theme here that is probably more related to team style related than individual), conceding fouls, tackling and playing long passes under no pressure

Celtic's American aces it in passing accuracy, not being dribbled past, interceptions, aerial wins and pressured long balls.

On percentile comparison, Carter-Vickers edges it 5-4 with two categories equal. It is very tight but the World Cup player from the States edges it. 

Winner: Carter-Vickers (Celtic)

Left centre-back

We have two 27-year-olds up next in the left-sided centre-back roles with Sweden international Starfelt is up against past Liverpool fringe man Davies.

It might have been expected that this would be close. However, the Swede tops seven out of 11 categories with the Englishman coming out on top only in terms of conceding fouls (another theme), unpressured long passes and tackling. Neither applies much opposition pressure. 

Otherwise, the Celt has the upper hand. The defensive jury has spoken and Celtic hold a perhaps unassailable lead of 5-0.

Winner: Starfelt (Celtic)

Defensive midfield

Here, Celtic’s captain is pitted against former Sheffield United man Lundstram. Both are 29.

The Scot has the advantage in passing accuracy, expected assists, successful dribbles and turnovers.

The Englishman, however, comes out on top in the defensive metrics - especially fouls won, pressure regains, overall pressures, tackles and interceptions.

Lundstram comes out on top in six categories to McGregor’s four and a surprise as the Ibrox club pull one back to make it 5-1.

Winner: Lundstram (Rangers)

Central midfield (1)

New signing Raskin is likely to be more of a double pivot with Lundstram. Comparing him with O’Riley, who played much of the season in McGregor’s role, is therefore as close a match-up as we can get given the slightly different systems. Both players are 22.

Raskin only has the equivalent of 1.2 90 minutes completed. We can also see that they are very different players with O’Riley coming out on top in all the attacking metrics and Raskin in the defensive ones.

It is really too small a sample from the Belgian for a fair comparison so it would be fair to call this one a draw.

Winner: N/A

Central midfield (2)

Now we come to two midfield mavericks, each with the element of surprise in their boots. Hatate is 25 and Tillman is 21.

Here is another example of contrasting skill-sets. The young American comes out on top in all the defensive metrics while Hatate is more skilled in ball progression and creating.

Overall, though, the Ibrox player scores higher in seven of the 11 categories and the comeback is on at 5-1-2.

Winner: Tillman (Rangers)

Winger (1)

It's another two players of a similar age matching up here with Kent (25) slightly the senior of Jota (24). These are arguably the most dangerous creative forces in either team.

While this campaign has not been as spectacular as last season for the ex-Benfica winger, this contest is not as close as expected with Kent trailing in seven categories out of 11.

The Portuguese takes more shots and more touches in the box, his cross accuracy has a higher xG, he provides more assists and turns the ball over less times.

Kent comes out stronger on passing accuracy, fouls won, successful dribbles and pressure regains.

A crucial one, this, and Celtic now have an unassailable 6-1-2 lead.

Winner: Jota (Celtic)

Winger (2)

We move on to two very different wide attackers to compare now in the Japanese flying machine Maeda (25) compared with the similarly elusive Zambian Sakala (26).

The different styles are reflected in the radar with the Zambian stronger at running with the ball and more of a goal threat. He also completes more crosses.

The Celt is safer in his passing, has a batter xG per shot and of course is much stronger in pressures and regains and forcing turnovers.

A very close one with different strengths but as Sakala scores better on the attacking metrics he gets the nod here to close the gap to 6-1-3.

Winner: Sakala (Rangers)

Striker

These are the difference makers and a further contrast in styles is expected when comparing Kyogo (28) with Morelos (25). 

The Colombian is a player that gets far more involved in general play, whereas the Celtic's striker tends to get onto the end of things in the box.

Morelos, therefore, comes out on top in shot volume and touches in the box as well as assisting, aerial wins and successful dribbles. Kyogo scores better in overall xG, pressure regains, turnovers and shot quality.

Morelos scores higher in six out of 11 categories but Kyogo's high points are where it matters – the quality of shots taken.

Maybe a bit of late controversy for the punters but this is also being called a draw.

Winner: N/A

Final scores: Celtic 6 Rangers 3 (+ two draws)

With the positional analysis out of the way, let us look at how StatsBomb compares the two teams overall...

Defending

The overall team defensive metrics are most heavily influenced by the quality of the opposition. Therefore, both sides profile almost identically.

Celtic actually come out on top percentile-wise in seven categories to Rangers' two but the margins are tiny.

Winner: Celtic

Attacking

There is more of a disparity as regards attacking team metrics.

Celtic come out on top in six categories with counter-attacking shots being the only metric where the Ibrox side outperforms the Champions.

Winner: Celtic

Summary

According to StatsBomb data, the Hoops have the edge in all of the back five positions. Rangers have the edge in midfield on a one-to-one basis while the individual attackers balance out.

However, in terms of team dynamics, Celtic score better in both defensive and attacking metrics. This may reflect the time the relative managers have had to mould their sides and the extent to which they have both been able to recruit individuals to match the system.

Fundamentally, Celtic seem the more cohesive side going into the final and also have less injury doubts.